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新书速递|《经济学人》:中美之间,必有一战?

2017-07-13 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩

本期导读:世界一直在变,而世界的变化,特别是具有全球性意义的重大变化,都是由世界范围内的大国主导而成的,因而,大国之间的关系,也就决定着我们所在的这个世界的命运。


15世纪以来,大体上看,世界历史上先后总共出现过九个能对全球产生重大影响的强国,包括殖民帝国先锋葡萄牙和西班牙、有“海上马车夫”之称的荷兰、日不落帝国大英帝国、到如今依然做着强国梦的法兰西、多次向世界老大冲刺的德意志、试图称霸亚洲的大日本帝国、把社会主义推向极致的苏联,以及目前依然雄踞世界霸主地位的美国。


守成大国与崛起大国之间的轮换,一直在变,不过,有一个不变的或可称之为“规律”的现象就是:当一个崛起的大国与既有的统治霸主竞争时,双方面临的危险多数以战争告终,即“修昔底德陷阱”。


“修昔底德陷阱”,是指一个新崛起的大国必然要挑战现存大国,而现存大国也必然会回应这种威胁,这样战争变得不可避免,此说法源自古希腊著名历史学家修昔底德。


修昔底德(Thucydides,约公元前460——公元前400/396年),雅典人,古希腊历史学家、文学家和雅典十将军之一,以其所著《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》而在西方史学史上占有重要地位。


《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》记录了公元前5世纪前期至公元前411年,斯巴达和雅典之间的战争,修昔底德因其严格、标准的史料收集,客观的因果分析,被称为“历史科学”之父。


曾经也风云叱咤的中华帝国,早已分崩离析,接过中华帝国衣钵的中华人民共和国,在全世界人民的眼里,是有望接替美国成为世界老大的下一个强国,至少目前看来是这样,最终结果具体会如何,木有人会晓得,毕竟,世界总是风云变幻。


China and America

中美关系

Faded to fight?

注定一战?


The Thucydides Trap

修昔底德陷阱

Will America and China go to war?

中美两国是否会走向战争?


The big foreign-policy question that is worrying Washington

对华外交关系,是困扰美国政界的一个大问题。


Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? By Graham Allison. 

作者简介:格雷厄姆·阿利森(Graham Allison),哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院创院院长,曾在克林顿政府时期任助理国防部长,这位美国著名政治学家也是《李光耀:论中国与世界》的第一作者。


ON JULY 2nd an American guided-missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles (22.2km) of Triton, a tiny Chinese-occupied island in the South China Sea. It was on a “freedom of navigation” operation, sailing through disputed waters to show China that others do not accept its territorial claims. Such operations infuriate China. But they have not brought the two superpowers to blows. So far.


Graham Allison, a Harvard scholar, thinks the world underestimates the risk of a catastrophic clash between China and the United States. When a rising power challenges an incumbent, carnage often ensues. Thucydides, an ancient historian, wrote of the Peloponnesian war of 431-404 BC that “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Mr Allison has examined 16 similar cases since the 15th century. All but four ended in war. Mr Allison does not say that war between China and the United States is inevitable, but he thinks it “more likely than not”.


This alarming conclusion is shared by many in Washington, where Mr Allison’s book is causing a stir. So it is worth examining his reasoning. America has shaped a set of global rules to suit itself. China has different values and different interests which it would like others to accommodate. Disagreements are inevitable.


War would be disastrous for both sides, but that does not mean it cannot happen. No one wanted the first world war, yet it started anyway, thanks to a series of miscalculations. The Soviet Union and America avoided all-out war, but they came close. During the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, when the Soviets tried to smuggle nuclear missiles onto Cuba, 90 miles (145km) from Florida, there were at least a dozen close calls that could have led to war. When American ships dropped explosives around Soviet submarines to force them to surface, one Soviet captain thought he was under attack and nearly fired his nuclear torpedoes. When an American spy plane flew into Soviet airspace, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet leader, worried that America was scoping targets for a nuclear first strike. Had he decided to pre-empt it, a third world war could have followed.


China and America could blunder into war in several ways, argues Mr Allison. A stand-off over Taiwan could escalate. North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong Un, might die without an obvious heir, sparking chaos. American and Chinese special forces might rush into North Korea to secure the regime’s nuclear weapons, and clash. A big cyber-attack against America’s military networks might convince it that China was trying to blind its forces in the Pacific. American retaliation aimed at warning China off might have the opposite effect. Suppose that America crippled China’s Great Firewall, as a warning shot, and China saw this as an attempt to overthrow its government? With Donald Trump in the White House, Mr Allison worries that even a trade war might turn into a shooting war.


He is right that Mr Trump is frighteningly ignorant of America’s chief global rival, and that both sides should work harder to understand each other. But Mr Allison’s overall thesis is too gloomy. China is a cautious superpower. Its leaders stoke nationalist sentiment at home, but they have shown little appetite for military adventurism abroad. Yes, the Taiwan strait and the South China Sea are dangerous. But unlike the great powers of old, China has no desire to build a far-flung empire. And all the wars in Mr Allison’s sample broke out before the invention of nuclear weapons. China and America have enough of these to destroy the world. That alone makes war extremely unlikely.


该书两个版本如下


Hardcover, 384 pages

Published May 30th 2017 

by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt


Paperback, 384 pages

Published July 13th 2017 

by Scribe UK


往期精彩:


美国政治|《经济学人》:美国理应变更好,现在却变得更糟

中美关系|《外媒》:中国邀请特朗普女儿、女婿访华

中国香港|《紫荆花开20年》:角度是丰富的,解读的多彩的

中国模式|《圣谕广训》:一切“真”历史,都是当代史

太平洋不太平|《波涛汹涌》:为什么中国要在太平洋里撒钱?

新书速递|《经济学人》:西方自由主义正迷茫于前路在何方

新书速递|《男性之隐》:一百位男性受访者倾吐心声

诗图一家|《在人间》:代际更替,循环往复,永无止境


注:

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