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人口问题|《经济学人》:人,一定要结婚,一定要要孩子?

2017-08-03 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界


欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读人口是一个内容复杂、综合多种社会关系的社会实体,人的出生、死亡、婚配均处于家庭关系、经济关系、政治关系及社会关系之中,一切社会活动、社会关系、社会现象和社会问题都同人口发展过程相关。


人口的增长模式大体有原始型:高出生率,高死亡率;传统型:高出生率,低死亡率;过渡型:介于传统型与现代性之间的一种类型,出生率由高转向低,死亡率由高转向低;现代型:低出生率,低死亡率。


人口结构各因素中,年龄和性别是最基本、最核心、最重要的因素,人口结构中影响最大的就是年龄结构和性别结构。理想的年龄结构应符合“人口低增长和长寿命”两大特征,人口高增长和负增长均会使人口结构恶化。理想的性别结构应符合“同年龄的男女性别人数相等或相近”。


人口问题,是由于人口在数量、结构、分布等方面快速变化,造成人口与经济、社会以及资源、环境之间的矛盾冲突。人口数量问题,主要由非均衡生育(多子化和少子化)以及人口迁移造成,只有通过均衡生育和调控迁移来解决。


人口结构问题,主要包括年龄、性别、收入、人种、民族、宗教、教育程度、职业、家庭人数等人口结构问题;其中,最为突出的是年龄(多子化、少子高龄化)、性别(男女比例失调)和收入(基尼系数高、中产塌陷)结构问题。人口收入结构问题,原因较复杂,但最终都只有通过壮大中产阶层,使中产阶层成为社会主体才能真正解决。


人口分布问题,主要包括大城市病、高密度连绵城市群的环境污染问题、大片乡村缺少就近特大城市辐射带动的发展难题、生态气候等自然条件恶劣地区人口的生存困境,以及高密度大流量的人口迁移等问题。人口分布问题,主要是通过城镇化的合理布局,构建合理的城镇体系来解决。


Demography

人口问题

In defence of the childless

为无孩人士说句话


More and more Westerners have no offspring. They should not be criticised for it

越来越多的西方人没有子女,但不能因为这个就该受到批评。


ONE by one, prejudices are tumbling in the West. People may harbour private suspicions that other people’s race, sex or sexuality makes them inferior—but to say so openly is utterly taboo. As most kinds of prejudiced talk become the preserve of anonymous social-media ranters, though, one old strain remains respectable. Just ask a childless person.

在西方社会,各种歧视,一个又一个地,都正在失去市场。私下里,人们或许会怀疑,他人在人种、性别问题或性活动方面会低人一等,但若要公开唠叨这些,却是禁忌。尽管绝大多数歧视性问题的讨论,在社会媒体上已不会再指名道姓地进行公开宣扬,但是,有一种延续已久的歧视,仍然会受到追捧。关于这点,只需问下没有孩子的人士。


They are not subject to special taxes, as they were in Soviet Russia; nor are they driven from their homes, as they still are in some poor countries. The childless nonetheless come in for a lot of criticism. “Not to have children is a selfish choice,” Pope Francis has intoned, perhaps forgetting what the Bible says about motes and eyes. Others point out that non-parents are failing to produce the future workers who will pay for their pensions. Childless politicians are charged with not having a proper stake in society. “He talks to us about the future, but he doesn’t have children!” complained Jean-Marie Le Pen, co-founder of the National Front party, of Emmanuel Macron, who went on to win the French presidency. Similar attacks on Theresa May and Angela Merkel also failed—but researchers find that many voters quietly agree.

西方国家的无孩人士,不像俄罗斯的,得承担特殊税,也没像某些贫困国家的,会被从家中驱离。不过,西方国家的无孩人士,依然会遭受很多批评。教皇方济各就教诲世人,“不要孩子,是一种自私。”或许,教皇忘了,《圣经》是如何让人“不要论断人”的。有些人指责说,没有孩子的人,不能增加未来的劳动力,但退休后却要从未来的劳动力那里获得养老金。没有孩子的政界人士,被指责在社会中不会有相应的利害关系。法国国民阵线创始人之一勒庞就曾揶揄后来赢得总统大选的马克龙,“他自己连个孩子都没有,却向我们大谈未来?!”对于英国的梅姨以及德国的默克尔,也有类似的指责,但也都没影响她们当选。不过,研究人员发现,很多选民私下里确实是这样认为的。


The charges against the childless should be thrown out, along with other social calumnies. In many rich countries, between 15% and 20% of women, and a slightly higher proportion of men, will not have children. The share is rising. Some have medical problems; others do not meet the right person in time; still others decide they do not want them. Falling sperm counts in rich countries may play a role, too. Whatever the cause, the attacks on the childless are baseless.

对无孩人士的指责,应像社会上其他诽谤歧视一样,统统都扫进垃圾桶。很多发达国家中,有15%-20%的女性以及比例稍高的男性,将不会有孩子。而且,这个比例还在攀升。有些,是因为身体原因;有些,是没有及时找到对的人;还有些,是自己决定不想要孩子。发达国家中男性精子数量的下降(译者注:近日,《人类生殖学快讯》(Human Reproduction Update)刊发的一项持续近40年的研究发现,西方国家男性精子数量不断下降,从1973年到2011年,西方男性单次射精的精子浓度平均每年降低1.4%,总体上降低超过52%,由此发出“西方男性遭遇精子危机”的警告),或许也是原因之一。不过,不管什么原因,对无孩人士的指责,都是无端的。


If non-breeders are selfish, they have an odd way of showing it. They are more likely to set up charitable foundations than people with children, and much more likely to bequeath money to good causes. According to one American estimate, the mere fact of not having children raises the amount a person leaves to charity by a little over $10,000. The childless are thus a small but useful counterweight to the world’s parents, who perpetuate social immobility by passing on their social and economic advantages to their children.

若说无孩人士更自私的话,那他们表现自私的方式就有点奇怪了。与有孩子的人相比,无孩人士创建慈善基金的可能性会更大,也更可能把自己的财富捐出来用于慈善事业。根据美国的一项估算数据,与有孩子的人相比,没孩子的人向慈善事业捐赠的金额人均高出超10000美元。鉴于有孩人士能通过把自己的社会经济权益传承给他们的孩子,进而阻碍社会阶层流动,这样看来,无孩人士便对有孩人士的这种作用,起到了虽微小但却意义非凡的对冲。


The fact that so many senior politicians lack offspring ought to put to rest the notion that they do not care for society. Five of the G7 countries are led by childless men and women. Mr Macron, Mrs May, Mrs Merkel, Shinzo Abe and Paolo Gentiloni have their faults, but they are not notably less able than Justin Trudeau (who has three children) let alone Donald Trump (who has five). Their opportunities for nepotism are limited. And they spare their countries the spectacle of dynastic politics, which can lead to mediocrity. The BJP in India has a brighter future because Narendra Modi is childless; for proof, look at what has happened to the Congress party.

很多资深政界人士都没有孩子,这样的现实,就该让那些认为他们对社会不关心的想法销声匿迹了。七国集团中,目前有五个国家的领导人没有孩子,包括法国总统马克龙、英国首相梅姨、德国总理默克尔、日本首相安倍晋三以及意大利总理真蒂洛尼,这些领导人都有缺点,但他们却并不明显比有三个孩子的加拿大总理特鲁多能力更差,更别提有五个孩子的美国总统特朗普了。没有孩子的那几位国家领导人,更没有机会安插自己的亲人,也能让他们的国家免于会导致庸人上台的王朝式的政治色彩。印度总理莫迪也没孩子,这样莫迪所在的人民党的未来也就更敞亮,关于个中原因,看看国大党的命运就一清二楚了。


No kidding

无孩子,非玩笑

The charge that childless people fail to pull their weight demographically is correct, but is less damning than it appears. Those who do not have children do put pressure on public pension systems. Faced with a deteriorating ratio of workers to pensioners, governments have to do unpopular things like making pensions less generous, as Japan has done, or accepting more immigrants, as some Western countries have done.

有人指责,无孩人士没能对人口做出贡献,这点虽有一定道理,但实际上却是似是而非的。无孩人士也确实会给公共福利系统带来一定压力。面对日渐恶化的养老比例,各国政府就不得不采取不那么受人们欢迎的政策措施,如像日本那样降低养老金水平,或像某些西方国家接收更多外来移民。


But to sustain public pensions in the long term, countries do not actually need more parents. What they need instead is more babies. It is possible to combine a high rate of childlessness with a high birth rate, provided people who become parents have more than one or two children. That was the pattern in many Western countries a century ago. Ireland, yet another country with a childless leader, still manages it today.

不过,要让公共福利系统具有长期可持续性,实际上需要的不是更多的人要孩子,需要的是要有更多的孩子。只要有孩子的父母要一个或两个以上孩子,就有可能在无孩人士占比较高的同时,保持较高的生育率。这种模式,在一个世纪之前的很多西方国家,都曾有过。目前,在领导人也无孩子的爱尔兰,依然是这样。


The childless also do everyone else a favour by creating wonderful works of art. British novelists have been especially likely to have no progeny: think of Hilary Mantel, P.G. Wodehouse and the Brontë sisters. In September Britain will put Jane Austen on its ten-pound note. That decision has been controversial, though it is hard to see why. Few people have written as shrewdly about money or about families—even though Austen did not marry, and had no children.

此外,无孩人士也通过艺术创作,能给人们带来各种福利。英国的小说界,特别出产没有孩子的小说家,如希拉里·曼特尔、P.G. 伍德豪斯,以及勃朗特姐妹等。今年九月,英国将把简·奥斯汀印在10英镑的纸币上,此项决定曾引起争议,尽管原因不明。时至今日,依然没有人能像奥斯汀对金钱和家庭刻画的那么出神入化,尽管奥斯汀既没结婚,也没孩子。


注释:

What the Bible says about motes and eyes:馬太福音第七章1-5節【不要論斷人】:1、你們不要論斷人,免得你們被論斷。2、因為你們怎樣論斷人,也必怎樣被論斷。你們用甚麼量器量給人,也必用甚麼量器量你們。3、為甚麼看見你弟兄眼中有剌,卻不想自己眼中有梁木呢。4、你自己眼中有梁木,怎能對你弟兄說,容我去掉你眼中的剌呢。5、你這假冒為善的人,先去掉自己眼中的梁木,然後纔能看得清楚,去掉你弟兄眼中的剌。Matthew 7:1-5:1. Judge not, that ye be not judged. 2. For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again. 3. And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye? 4. Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye? 5. Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye.


往期精彩:


造人那点事儿|《经济学人》:造人途径有N种,该选哪一种?

国际代孕|《经济学人》:能当父母,是件好事,而非犯罪

中英对照|《婚姻与爱情》:钻石可以恒久远,婚姻却是难上难

旧文重发|《经济学人》:日本社会的婚姻问题,映照独身时代的来临

寿命那点儿事儿|《天下人》:长命百岁难,难于上青天

诗图一家|《命运遐想》:命里有时终须有,命里无时莫强求

新书速递|《经济学人》:中美之间,必有一战?

面具人生|《认识自己》:戴有多少副面具,就有多少个人生

中印关系|《经济学人》:中印互为近邻,会否唇齿相依?

中英对照|《BBC》:禁变性人服役牵出美军巨额伟哥开支

诗图一家|《行与思》:内在心境,外在环境,总是变幻不定


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