乌克兰危机|《经济学人》：乌克兰是朽木，已然不可雕

原创 2017-08-08 从余启 我与我们的世界我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读：乌克兰危机是由2013年底乌克兰亲俄派总统亚努科维奇中止和欧盟签署联系国协定，欲强化和俄罗斯的关系导致，乌克兰亲欧派举行大规模抗议示威，持续几个月后，2014年2月22日，亚努科维奇下台，逃出乌克兰首都基辅。

亚努科维奇支持者大多来自乌克兰东部、南部，这些主要流行俄语的地区在他下台后发生骚乱。随后乌克兰自治地区克里米亚出现政治危机，结果2014年3月18日克里米亚加入俄罗斯联邦。其后，乌克兰东部顿涅茨克州和卢甘斯克州发生骚乱，并演变成乌克兰政府与亲俄势力之间的战争。

乌克兰危机对乌克兰国内以及国际都产生很多影响。据世界银行在2014年10月估计，乌克兰经济2014年因此危机影响而衰减8％。西方国家对俄罗斯实施的经济制裁，造成俄罗斯卢布严重贬值，并导致俄罗斯金融危机。

分析认为，乌克兰危机的直接导火索虽然是乌政府2013年11月决定暂停与欧盟签署联系国协定，但最根本原因还是国内民众在“向东走”还是“向西走”问题上的深度对立。这一根本矛盾没有化解，乌克兰局势升级的土壤就始终存在。

从人口和地理因素分析，大约三分之一的乌克兰人口讲俄语，大多生活在靠近俄罗斯的东部地区，主张与俄罗斯保持密切关系，大约三分之二人口讲乌克兰语，主要生活在中西部地区，倾向于更亲近欧盟。

无论谁当选总统，都会被其中一派视作“自己人”，而被另一派视为“敌人”或某一境外势力的“代言人”。这种对立情绪始终没有得到缓解，从而成为酝酿更多危机的温床，在出现诸如财政危机恶化、政府立场突变的事件后，便容易发酵成政治动荡。

American-Russian relations

美俄关系

Arming Ukraine

给武器，就能拯救乌克兰？

America may at last be willing to offer Ukraine weapons

美国或许最终会转变态度，变得愿意给乌克兰提供武器。

WHEN Russian members of parliament uncorked champagne to celebrate the electoral victory of Donald Trump, they hoped that America would stop meddling in the former Soviet backyard and ease sanctions imposed in response to its war in Ukraine. But as some Russians are now saying, it was too early to drink it. On August 2nd Mr Trump reluctantly signed a law which heaps new sanctions on Russia and limits his ability to lift them. A few days earlier, Mike Pence, America’s vice-president, went to Estonia and Georgia and warned against further aggression from “your unpredictable neighbour to the east”. And America may soon supply Ukraine with lethal weapons, a step that Barack Obama refused to take.

特朗普去年赢得美国大选，俄罗斯议员们打开香槟要庆祝时，心中或许在想，美国会停止再找俄罗斯的事儿，会给俄罗斯因在乌克兰东部挑起战争而遭受制裁松绑。不过，现如今，正如一些俄罗斯人士所说的，香槟喝的太早了。8月2日，特朗普尽管不情不愿，但还是签署了一项新的法案，给俄罗斯制裁加码，而特朗普为制裁松绑的权力，也同时被限制。就在几天前，美国副总统彭斯还到访了爱沙尼亚与格鲁吉亚，并提出警告，要小心“你们那个性情不定的东部邻国”再进行侵犯。而且，美国或许很快就会给乌克兰提供杀伤性武器，这是奥巴马时期不愿意做的。

Mr Obama’s inaction was heavily criticised at the time by many Republicans, including Kurt Volker, a former ambassador to NATO and a close associate of John McCain, a hawkish Republican senator. Last month Mr Volker was appointed by the State Department as America’s special representative to Ukraine. It is up to Mr Trump’s administration to approve the supply of arms to Ukraine, but most members of his cabinet are said to be on board. A decision could come within weeks.

奥巴马的不作为，当时受到很多共和党人士的狠批，其中就包括美国驻北约前代表同时也是共和党鹰派人士麦凯恩密友的沃克。上月，美国国务院任命沃克为美国驻乌克兰特别代表。现在，向乌克兰提供武器的决策权，交到了特朗普政府手里，而且，特朗普政府的多数成员，据说都同意向乌克兰提供武器。或许，相关决策在未来几周内就会出台。

American officials and their European counterparts are also discussing whether to begin using the terms “aggression”, “war” and “Russian forces” in place of “conflict” and “separatists” with regard to the fighting in eastern Ukraine. One reason Russian aggression got as far as it did, the argument goes, was that neither the West nor Ukraine was prepared to call it by its proper name. America and its allies restrained Ukraine from fighting when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea—and a weak, post-revolutionary Ukrainian government acquiesced.

美国与欧盟方面的官员，也正在考虑，是否将乌克兰东部战事的相关用语，如“冲突”和“分裂势力”等，换成诸如“侵略”、“战争”或“俄方力量”等。有评论说，俄罗斯攻势之所以膨胀到目前这个程度，原因之一就在于，西方和乌克兰都没能给它以确切定性并采用相应合适的名称。俄罗斯入侵并窃取克里米亚时，美国及其同盟国都让乌克兰保持克制不要与俄罗斯开战，而刚经受革命动荡并比较虚弱的乌克兰政府，也就顺势认命了。

Following Russia’s interference in its elections last year, America seems willing to push back more robustly. Members of the Trump administration calculate that Russia has limited scope to escalate. Mr Putin will try to persuade them otherwise. One option might be to occupy Belarus, a former Soviet republic. Another might be to stir political instability in Ukraine.

去年俄罗斯插手美国大选后，美国看来有点想要进行积极反制。特朗普政府成员估计，俄罗斯手中可打的牌很少。普京也会努力说服特朗普政府不要那样做。其中一张牌，或许是把前苏联加盟共和国白俄罗斯收入囊中，另一张牌或许是，进一步让乌克兰政局不稳。

Awkwardly, America is increasing its support for Ukraine just as Ukraine’s leaders are becoming more focused on their own economic and political fortunes, rather than the good of the country. Last week Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s chocolate-tycoon-turned-president, stripped Mikheil Saakashvili, a radical anti-corruption reformer, of Ukrainian citizenship. Mr Saakashvili, a former president of Georgia who was forced out of his native country by Bidzina Ivanishvili, its richest oligarch, came to Ukraine after the Maidan revolution in 2014 to carry on with his fight against the post-Soviet malaise.

不巧的是，美国正要给乌克兰提供支持之际，乌克兰的领导们却越来越专注于他们各自的经济和政治私利，而置国家利益于不顾。上周，乌克兰巧克力大王变身为总统的波罗申科签署命令，取消了高举反腐旗帜的激进改革派人士、乌克兰敖德萨州州长萨卡什维利的乌克兰国籍。格鲁吉亚前总统萨卡什维利，2014年广场革命期间被格鲁吉亚富翁寡头政客伊万尼什维利驱逐出格鲁吉亚后，便来到乌克兰继续进行自己那针对苏联遗毒的斗争。

After serving as a governor of Odessa, he fell out with Mr Poroshenko, accusing him of corruption and collusion with oligarchs. In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda, an independent Ukrainian news site, Mr Saakashvili said Mr Poroshenko’s main motivation was making money. Other activists have criticised Mr Poroshenko for lacking the political will to tackle corruption. Government prosecutors have inadvertently provided evidence for that charge by launching attacks on anti-corruption activists.

担任乌克兰敖德萨州州长后，萨卡什维利与波罗申科就闹翻了，原因是他指控波罗申科腐败，并勾结寡头政客。在接受乌克兰一家独立新闻网站《乌克兰真理报》采访时，萨卡什维利透露，波罗申科的主要目的，就是闷声发大财。其他社会活动人士也指控波罗申科缺乏治理腐败的政治意志。乌克兰政府检察系统针对反腐社会活动人士的打压，刚好印证了对波罗申科的指控。

The prosecutors’ latest target is Oleksandr Danyliuk the reform-minded finance minister. Mr Danyliuk has tried to make the country’s system of VAT refunds (a major source of corruption) more transparent. He has also tried to prune the budget of the prosecution service. On July 31st the prosecutor general’s office said it was probing his income and property.

乌克兰检察系统最近的打压目标，瞄向了改革派财政部部长达尼柳克。达尼柳克曾试图提高乌克兰增值税退税体系（一个重要的腐败源）的透明度，也曾试图降低检察系统的预算规模。7月31日，检察总长办公室表示，正在对达尼柳克的收入和财产进行审查。

In fact, the finance minister’s problems stem from a fight between Mr Poroshenko and his own government. Last month, while Mr Danyliuk was in London discussing Ukraine’s economic reforms, the country’s budget was re-carved by the Rada, the parliament, with the help of a close associate of Mr Poroshenko. Some of the changes introduced in Mr Danyliuk’s absence make the budget impossible to fulfil, and resemble dodgy schemes used under the previous regime. The budget also over-estimates the expected tax collection from businesses, creating even more room for extortion.

其实，财政部长达尼柳克的问题，源于波罗申科与其自己政府团队之间的互掐。上月，达尼柳克到访伦敦讨论乌克兰的经济改革问题之时，而国内，乌克兰议会却对国家预算进行了重整，这些变动，当然离不开波罗申科一位挚友的推动。身为财政部长的达尼柳克不在场，国家预算却进行了变动，而且，其中有些变动会使得预算方案不具可行性，并与乌克兰前政府所执行的某些用于掩人耳目的方案没什么区别。新的预算方案，也对预期企业税收有所高估，这就使得向企 49 31059 49 15288 0 0 4890 0 0:00:06 0:00:03 0:00:03 4889业进行勒索的空间变大。

No amount of weapons supplied by America will defend Ukraine from the internal malaise which made it vulnerable to Russian aggression in the first place.

不管美国向乌克兰提供多少武器，都不足以解决乌克兰的内部纷争，正是这一点，才是乌克兰面对俄罗斯攻势时最致命的一点。