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技术革新|《人工智能》:机器人战争,距离我们还有多远?

2017-08-27 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读战争,是指多个组织或组织之间有组织性的武装冲突。在人类社会,战争则与政治紧密关联,战争是政治的延续。以武力为手段,目的是迫使一方服从另一方的意志,通常是政治意图,通过多次大规模对决使敌人失去抵抗的力量。


毛泽东对战争的定义是:战争从私有财产和有阶级以来就开始了的、用以解决阶级和阶级、民族和民族、国家和国家、政治集团和政治集团之间、在一定发展阶段上的矛盾的一种最高的斗争形式,就强调了战争与政治的关联。


若从开战开始计算死亡人数,历史上死亡人数最多的战争是第二次世界大战,死亡人数约在6,000万至8,500万之间。若以比例来看,巴拉圭战争是近代历史杀伤力最强的战争,杀死了巴拉圭60%以上的人口。



Is 'killer robot' warfare closer than we think?

“机器人”战争距离我们更近了么?


“杀人机器人”貌似还只存在于科幻电影里

不过,现实世界中也正在出现


More than 100 of the world's top robotics experts wrote a letter to the United Nations recently calling for a ban on the development of "killer robots" and warning of a new arms race. But are their fears really justified?

近日,100多位世界顶尖机器人专家向联合国递送联名信,呼吁禁止开发“杀人机器人”,警告新的军备竞赛可能会到来。不过,这些专家们的担心,真的有根有据么?


Entire regiments of unmanned tanks; drones that can spot an insurgent in a crowd of civilians; and weapons controlled by computerised "brains" that learn like we do, are all among the "smart" tech being unleashed by an arms industry many believe is now entering a "third revolution in warfare".

编排成队的无人坦克,能从人群中辨别出来武装分子的无人机,由能像人进行学习的计算机化“大脑”控制的武器,等等等等,所有这些,都属于军事工业领域正蓬勃发展的“智能”技术。很多人相信,人类目前正在经历一场“第三次战争革命”。


"In every sphere of the battlefield - in the air, on the sea, under the sea or on the land - the military around the world are now demonstrating prototype autonomous weapons," says Toby Walsh, professor of artificial intelligence at Sydney's New South Wales University.

悉尼新南威尔士大学人工智能教授沃尔什接受采访时说,“在可能发生战争的各个领域,包括空中、海上、水下以及陆上,全世界的军队都正在展示各种原创性的自动武器。”


"New technologies like deep learning are helping drive this revolution. The tech space is clearly leading the charge, and the military is playing catch-up."

“诸如深度学习之类的新技术,正在推动这场革命。显然,技术在其中起着主导作用,而军队紧追着技术进步。”


俄罗斯武器制造商卡拉什尼科夫正开发一套全自动武器系统


One reported breakthrough giving killer machine opponents sleepless nights is Kalashnikov's "neural net" combat module.

据媒体报道,有项让杀人机器人的敌人睡不着觉的技术突破,就是卡拉什尼科夫的“中性网络”战斗模块。


It features a 7.62mm machine gun and a camera attached to a computer system that its makers claim can make its own targeting judgements without any human control.

该战斗模块的突出特点在于,配有一套7.62毫米口径机枪,外加一套连接于电脑系统的摄像头。具制造商称,该电脑系统不用人员操控,自己就能锁定目标并进行判断。


The company did not respond to repeated requests by the BBC for an interview, but according to Russia's state-run Tass news agency it uses "neural network technologies that enable it to identify targets and make decisions".

我们多次联系该公司向进行采访,但都没得到回复。不过,据俄罗斯官方通讯社塔斯社报道,使用的就是“能自动识别目标并自做决定的中性网络技术”。


Unlike a conventional computer that uses pre-programmed instructions to tackle a specific but limited range of predictable possibilities, a neural network is designed to learn from previous examples then adapt to circumstances it may not have encountered before.

不像普通计算机使用的是预先设定好的程序来对具体且有限的可预期事件进行处理,“中性网络”能从所经历的事件中进行自我学习,然后会对之前从没遇到过的情况进行调整适应。


机器人战斗系统会比人类更少犯错误?


And it is this supposed ability to make its own decisions that is worrying to many.

让很多人感到忧虑的,也正是这项能自做决定的能力。


"If weapons are using neural networks and advanced artificial intelligence then we wouldn't necessarily know the basis on which they made the decision to attack - and that's very dangerous," says Andrew Nanson, chief technology officer at defence specialist Ultra Electronics.

防务领域专业公司“超级电子”的首席技术官南森表示,“若把中性网络和高级人工智能应用于武器,那么,我们就可能不会知道这些武器会基于什么做出进行攻击的决定,这会非常危险。”


But he remains sceptical about some of the claims arms manufacturers are making.

不过,南森对武器制造商所称的某些功能持有怀疑态度。


Automated defence systems can already make decisions based on an analysis of a threat - the shape, size, speed and trajectory of an incoming missile, for example - and choose an appropriate response much faster than humans can.

自动防御系统已能根据威胁分析来自做决定,如能根据来袭导弹的形状、大小、速度、弹道来决定相应的回应方式,而且比人类的速度要快很多。


But what happens when such systems encounter something they have no experience of, but are still given the freedom to act using a "best guess" approach?

不过,若此类系统遇到从未经历过的状况但仍让这些系统利用“最优猜测”的方式来自主决定采取行动,结果会怎样呢?


Mistakes could be disastrous - the killing of innocent civilians; the destruction of non-military targets; "friendly fire" attacks on your own side.

错误将会是灾难性的,可能会导致无辜平民伤亡,也可能摧毁非军事目标,更可能导致“友军炮火”误向自己人开火。


2001年以来远程操控无人机已多次参与实战执行袭击任务


And this is what many experts fear, not that AI will become too smart - taking over the world like the Skynet supercomputer from the Terminator films - but that it's too stupid.

而这,正是很多专家所担心的。专家们担心的,不是人工智能将会变得太过聪明,像《终结者》系列电影中超级计算机掌控世界,而是人工智能会太过愚笨。


"The current problems are not with super-intelligent robots but with pretty dumb ones that cannot flexibly discriminate between civilian targets and military targets except in very narrowly contained settings," says Noel Sharkey, professor of artificial intelligence and robotics at Sheffield University.

谢菲尔德大学人工智能与机器人教授夏基表示,“现在的问题,不在于超级智能机器人,而在于那些较为愚笨的机器人,因后者在平民目标与军事目标之间做不了有效区分,除非设定的场景非常简单。”


Despite such concerns, Kalashnikov's latest products are not the only autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons being trialled in Russia.

尽管有各种各样的忧虑,不过,卡拉什尼科夫最新开发并在进行试验的产品,可不止各种自动或半自动武器。


The Uran-9 is an unmanned ground combat vehicle and features a machine gun and 30mm cannon. It can be remotely controlled at distances of up to 10km.

还有“巨蜥-9”型无人地面战车,配有机枪和30毫米口径大炮,遥控距离可达10公里。


And the diminutive Platform-M combat robot boasts automated targeting and can operate in extremes of heat and cold.

更有微型“平台-M”型战斗机器人,可自动锁定目标,并能在极热或极寒环境中工作。


Meanwhile the Armata T-14 "super tank" has an autonomous turret that designer Andrei Terlikov claims will pave the way for fully autonomous tanks on the battlefield.

还有阿玛塔T-14型“超级坦克”,配有自动炮塔。据该坦克设计者特尔里科夫称,该坦克将会为能上战场的全 45 33328 45 15288 0 0 3541 0 0:00:09 0:00:04 0:00:05 3540自动坦克的研制铺平道路。


Manufacturer Uralvagonzavod also didn't respond to BBC requests for an interview, but Prof Sharkey - who is a member of pressure group The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots - is wary of its potential.

我们也联系了该坦克的制造商想要采访,但也没得到回应。不过,压力集团“禁止杀人机器人运动”的成员夏基教授,对该坦克所具有的潜在危害非常担心。


"The T-14 is years ahead of the West, and the idea of thousands of autonomous T-14s sitting on the border with Europe does not bear thinking about," he says.

夏基教授表示,“阿玛塔T-14型坦克,比西方先进很多年。成千上万辆阿玛塔自动坦克部署在俄欧边境,并非不可想象。”


And it's not just Russia developing such weapons.

不过,不是只有俄罗斯在开发此类武器。


沃尔什教授说很多国家都在开发自动化武器


Last summer, the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) equipped an ordinary surveillance drone with advanced AI designed to discern between civilians and insurgents during a test over a replica Middle Eastern village in Massachusetts.

美国国防部高级研究计划局(Darpa)去年夏天给无人侦察机配上了能区分平民与武装分子的先进人工智能,并在马萨诸塞州的一个模拟战地村庄里进行了测试。


And Samsung's SGR-A1 sentry gun, capable of firing autonomously, has been deployed along the South Korean side of the Korean Demilitarised Zone.

韩国三星研制的SGR-A1型岗哨机枪,能自动进行射击,也在朝鲜半岛非军事区沿韩方一侧进行了部署。


The UK's Taranis drone - which is roughly the size of a Red Arrow Hawk fighter jet - is being developed by BAE Systems. It is designed to carry a myriad of weapons long distances and will have "elements" of full autonomy, BAE says.

英国宇航系统公司正在研发的新型“雷神”无人机,大小与红箭鹰战机相当,据称能携带大量武器进行长距离飞行,且配有全自动“元素”。


At sea, the USA's Sea Hunter autonomous warship is designed to operate for extended periods at sea without a single crew member, and to even guide itself in and out of port.

海上方面,美国研制的“海洋猎手”全自动战舰,不用配备一个航员,就可在海上长期航行,而且能自主导航进港出港。


“海洋猎手”不用配备一个船员即可运行


All the Western arms manufacturers contacted by the BBC, including Boeing's Phantom Works, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, refused to co-operate with this feature, an indication perhaps of the controversial nature of this technology.

我们联系到的所有西方武器制造商,包括波音的幻影工厂、诺斯洛普格鲁曼、雷声、宇航系统、洛克希德马丁以及通用动力,都拒绝透露与我们本期报道主题相关方面的信息,这或许也从一定程度上反映出,此技术是项具有争议性的技术。


But could autonomous military technology also be used simply as support for human military operations?

不过,把自动军事技术只应用于给军队运作提供支持,这怎么样呢?


Roland Sonnenberg, head of defence at consultancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, says combat simulation, logistics, threat analysis and back office functions are the more mundane - but equally important - aspects of warfare that robots and AI could perform.

普华永道咨询公司防务事务部主管索南伯格表示,战斗模拟、军事后勤、威胁分析、后方支援等,显得都更为普通平常,但却同样重要,这些方面的任务,机器人和人工智能都可胜任。


"The benefits that AI has to offer are only useful if they can be applied effectively in the real world and will only be broadly adopted if companies, consumers and society trust the technology and take a responsible approach," he says.

索南伯格还说到,“人工智能的好处,只有当在现实世界中能得到有效应用才能有用,而且,只有当公司、消费者以及整个社会对该项技术有信心并采取负责的态度时,才能得到广泛应用。”


英国宇航系统公司称其新型“雷神”无人机将配备“全自动元素”


And some argue that autonomous weapons could actually reduce the number of human casualties.

有些人士认为,自动化武器的应用,可减少人员伤亡的数量。


But Elizabeth Quintana, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, disagrees.

不过,英国皇家联合军事研究所高级研究员昆塔纳对此表示不赞同。


"Deploying robotic systems might be more attractive to politicians because there would be fewer body bags coming home.

“运用机器人系统,对于政界人士来说,或许更具吸引力,因为,那样的话,带回国内的殒命士兵遗体的数量会有所减少。”


"My view is that war is an inherently human activity and that if you wage war from a distance at another group or country, they will find a way to hurt you at home because that is the only way that they can retaliate."

“我认为,战争是一项具有一定根本性的人类活动,若你不远万里对其他群体或国家发动战争,他们就会想到办法在你国内给你造成伤害,因为,或许那是他们能进行报复的唯一办法。”


The prospect of autonomous weapons systems inadvertently leading to an escalation in domestic terrorism or cyber-warfare is perhaps another reason to treat this new tech with caution.

自动化武器系统的应用,有可能无意间导致国内恐怖主义或网络战争危险上升,这或许也是为什么我们要谨慎对待此项新技术的原因所在。


往期精彩:


信仰之光|《血战钢锯岭》:美日战争,温情于杀戮中游丝般生存

乌克兰危机|《经济学人》:乌克兰是朽木,已然不可雕

表达的艺术|《概念摄影》:有人的地方,就有思想的力量,

最新民调|《美智库》:朝核问题、美俄关系,扰动美国民意

哈佛教授谈“伟大”|《全球脑库》:美国曾经因何而伟大,将来又会因何而伟大?

窥斑见豹|《美国智库一览表》:智库,重在“智”,而不在“库”

《白宫内斗》:被甩出局的首席战略顾问誓言将斗争进行到底

一直在变|《婚姻制度》:制度源于历史,终将也消于历史

何以中国|《经济学人》:复兴传统文化,创造中国历史


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