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朝核问题|《英国智库》:军事手段对付朝鲜,都能有啥招?

2017-09-06 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界


欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读:小小朝鲜半岛,在全球范围内,肯定是最热闹的地区之一了,各个玩家你来我往,行情一波接一波,而且,波波都能吊起人们的胃口。


近日,拥有186年历史的英国防务与安全智库“皇家三军联合研究所” (RUSI)研究员贾斯汀·布朗克专门撰文就美国能对朝鲜采取的各种军事手段进行了分析,下面就让我们一起来看看吧。



North Korea: What are the military options?

军事手段对付朝鲜,都能有啥招?

By Justin Bronk

贾斯汀·布朗克

RUSI

皇家三军联合研究所



President Trump has said "all options are on the table" after North Korea fired a missile over Japan. So what could military action against Kim Jong-un's regime actually look like?

朝鲜发射一枚导弹横穿日本后,美国总统特朗普已表示,“所有选项都在考虑中”。那么,若对金正恩政权采取军事手段,都会有哪些呢?


As a ballistic missile passed over the Japanese island of Hokkaido residents were warned to take cover.

朝鲜发射弹道导弹穿越日本北海道,日本政府随即发出警示,提醒当地居民注意躲藏掩护。


The launch was a provocative act, which has been followed by warnings from the North Korean regime that it was just a "first step".

朝鲜此举意在挑衅,之后朝鲜又多次警告,称这只是“第一步”。


The UN and several nations have imposed sanctions on North Korea, while President Trump said he was considering the next steps.

联合国和相关国家已提高了对朝鲜的制裁力度,美国总统特朗普也说,正在考虑下一步举措。


But while the US has unrivalled military strength, the range of options it actually has against the hermit country are limited.

不过,尽管美国军力全球无敌,针对与世隔绝的朝鲜所能采取的军事手段,却是非常有限的。


Option 1: 'Enhanced Containment'

选项一:“加强对朝遏制力度”

This is the least risky but arguably least effective option available since it would simply build on deployments that have long been in place and have had little success in deterring North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear programme.

该选项风险最低,不过也可能是有限的几个选项中有效性最差的一个。若采取此选项,只是增加军力部署,而军力部署早已有之,且对朝在导弹研制与核武开发方面也没起到有效威慑。


The US could move additional ground forces into South Korea, including ground-based missile defences such as the controversial Thaad system, heavy artillery and armoured vehicles, to demonstrate its willingness to use force to back up its demands.

美国可以增加在韩地面部队部署力量,包括增加诸如极具争议性的萨德系统等陆基导弹防御设施、重型炮兵部队以及装甲力量等,以此来展示美国有意志采取军事手段来实现其目标。


However, South Korea has halted the current Thaad deployment and is strongly against any increases in US ground forces, because of concerns about provoking the North.

不过,韩国目前已中止萨德部署,而且也极力反对美国增加地面部队力量部署,主要是因为担心刺激朝鲜。


Indeed, North Korea would almost certainly interpret such moves as a prelude to a ground invasion, given its reactions to annual joint exercises between the US and South Korean militaries.

确实,考虑到朝鲜针对美韩年度军演的反应,朝鲜极有可能会把此类举动解读为进行地面战争的前兆。


China and Russia would no doubt strenuously object too and both have the power to make life difficult for the US in other areas such as Eastern Europe and the South and East China Seas.

中俄两国无疑也会对此类举动表示极力反对,而且,中俄两国也有能力给美国在其他诸如东欧、南海、东海等地区问题上制造麻烦。


The US Navy could increase its presence around Korea, sending more cruisers and destroyers able to shoot down ballistic missiles and, possibly, deploying a second carrier strike group.

美国也可选择提高朝鲜周边的海军力量部署,派驻更多能击落弹道导弹的巡洋舰和驱逐舰,当然,也可再部署一个航母战斗编队。


Alongside the naval options, the US Air Force could bolster its forward-based airpower, with more attack fighter squadrons, support tankers, surveillance aircraft and heavy bombers at bases in Guam, South Korea itself and Japan.

除海军力量外,美国也可在关岛、韩国以及日本军事基地增加前置空中打击力量,包括战斗歼击机、后援运油机、情报监测机、重型轰炸机等。


However, the US Navy and US Air Force are both extremely heavily tasked around the world and are feeling the strain of well over a decade of continuous high-intensity deployments in support of operations, including those in Iraq and Afghanistan.

不过,目前全球范围内所执行的任务,已让美国海军与空军力量感到有点不堪重负,特别是十多年来为支持包括伊拉克及阿富汗等地的军事行动,一直持续着高强度部署,已给美国海空两军带来明显压力。



More importantly, perhaps, time is on North Korea's side, since an enhanced US military presence would not itself force a halt to its rapidly maturing nuclear weapons programme and ballistic missile testing.

更重要的一点或许是,时间是站在朝鲜那边的,主要是因为,美国加强军事力量,此举本身并不能让朝鲜停止日渐成熟的核武开发与导弹研制。


And any statement of intent to shoot down North Korean ballistic missiles which travel outside the country's airspace would itself require a major increase in US Navy presence around the peninsula.

而且,若有意对朝鲜发射至其领空以外的弹道导弹予以击落,光这一点也需美国在朝鲜半岛周围大量提高海军部署。


North Korea has a large ballistic missile arsenal and US interceptor missiles are extremely expensive and available in limited quantities aboard each ship.

朝鲜拥有大量弹道导弹储备,而美国拦截导弹成本却不是一般的高,且每艘舰船上装载的拦截导弹数量有限。


It would, therefore, be possible for the North to overwhelm and deplete the US Navy's stocks, leaving them vulnerable and forced to return to port.

因此,有可能,朝鲜会对美国海军形成压倒之势,耗尽其拦截导弹储备,削弱其防御能力,迫使其不得不回港避险。


Such a policy would therefore represent an extremely expensive and probably unsustainable challenge to North Korea, as well as a dangerous escalation towards direct military conflict.

所以,此选项成本极高,而且很可能不会对朝鲜形成具有可持续性的挑战,与此同时却会让危险升级,导致直接军事冲突。


Option 2: Surgical strikes

选项二:进行外科手术打击

The US Air Force and US Navy possess the most advanced surgical strike capabilities on Earth.

美国海空两军拥有全球最先进的外科手术打击能力。


Using volleys of precision Tomahawk missiles fired from submarines off the North Korean coastline and attacks by B-2 stealth bombers against key North Korean nuclear sites and ballistic missile facilities may seem like an attractive proposition, at first glance.

乍一看,用战斧导弹、隐形轰炸机等对朝鲜核武开发及导弹研制设施进行空袭,这个方案确实不错。


It is undoubtedly the case that heavy damage could be inflicted on high value targets, with deeply buried and hardened underground facilities vulnerable to the 30,000lb Massive Ordinance Penetrator bomb.

而且,毫无疑问,很多对朝鲜具有重要意义的设施将遭受重创,即使是深藏地下经防御加固的设施,也难以抵挡得住30000磅之重的巨型钻地弹的威力。


The immediate danger to US aircraft would depend on many factors, including the amount of warning North Korea received, the number of strikes flown and the contribution of non-stealth aircraft within range of its defences.

不过,美国空军随即面临的危险则取决于多个因素,包括朝鲜的戒备程度、恐袭的成功次数以及朝鲜防御范围内非隐形性战机的作战能力。


However, the state of North Korea's air defence network is very hard to determine since it is a mix of Soviet/Russian, Chinese and home-grown surface-to-air missile and radar systems acquired over 50 years.

但是,朝鲜空域防务网络的状况,非常难以确定,主要是因为,过去50多年间,朝鲜拼凑的是源自苏联、俄罗斯、中国以及自制的地对空导弹和雷达系统。


The defences are among the densest on Earth, but they have been modified and upgraded to an unknown degree and their readiness is difficult to assess.

可以说,朝鲜的防御体系的密度,全球最高,而且,历经多次修整、升级,现在达到了一个什么样的程度,无人知晓,朝鲜的备战水平,也难以进行准确评估。


If the US lost aircraft to enemy fire or accidents it would then face the nightmare scenario of having to try to rescue its aircrew, or abandon them to 45 33376 45 15287 0 0 3160 0 0:00:10 0:00:04 0:00:06 3159a very public fate.

若美国战机因朝鲜袭击或事故被击落,那么美国就得面临拼死营救与彻底放弃的两难选择。



Far more significant, however, is the fact that even successful strikes on nuclear and missile sites, command centres and even the leadership itself, would not stop North Korea retaliating.

不过,更为重要的是,即使对朝鲜核设施、导弹设施、作战指挥中心甚至是朝鲜政权当局的恐袭获得成功,但也不能保证朝鲜不会报复。


The People's Army would still have the ability to inflict almost inevitably devastating damage in immediate retaliation against South Korea - a key US ally.

朝鲜人民军依然会拥有能力立即对美国的盟友韩国做出几乎肯定能带来极大破坏的报复行动。


It consists of over a million regular soldiers and, by some estimates, over six million reserves and paramilitary troops.

朝鲜拥有超过100万常规士兵,据估算,储备军队及预备役力量超过600万。


A huge number of conventional and rocket artillery pieces, mostly dug in near the demilitarised zone, include hundreds which are within range of parts of the South Korean capital city Seoul, which is home to around 10 million people.

在南北军事分界线附近,朝鲜还布设了大量常规性武器设施和火箭弹装备,其中,很多都能抵达居住有1000万人口的韩国首都首尔。


Even the US military would take days to fully eliminate just these artillery batteries, which would be able to fire tens of thousands of shells and rockets during that time.

即使美军只需几天就能把这些武器设施完全清理干净,但就在这么短短的几天里,也会有成千上万的炮弹发射出来。


The catastrophic damage that these batteries would inflict on a crowded modern city, as well as the South Korean military forces, is why the South Korean government is opposed to any pre-emptive military action against North Korea.

这些武器设施对人口众多的现代都市首尔以及韩国的军事力量所能造成的灾难性影响,是韩国政府反对针对朝鲜采取先发制人的军事行动的主要原因。


Even without a usable nuclear weapon and without actively invading South Korea, the Kim regime could inflict devastating damage and probably end the US-South Korean alliance as we know it.

即使不用核武器,不对积极深入韩国领土,金正恩政权也能给韩国带来灾难性破坏,而且,也很有可能让美韩同盟关系彻底结束。


Option 3: Full scale invasion

选项三:发动全面对朝战争

Given the sheer size of the People's Army, the power of its artillery, its dense air defences and South Korea's reluctance to support any US military action, this option is extremely far-fetched.

鉴于朝鲜人民军的规模之大、朝鲜炮兵的力量之强、朝鲜防空的密度之高,以及韩国对美国采取任何军事行动的不情不愿,该选项的可能性可以说微乎其微。


Any attempt to actually invade North Korea would require months of visible US military build-up, full-scale South Korean participation and a way to guarantee the neutralisation of North Korea's mysterious nuclear capabilities.

对朝鲜发动全面战争,准备工作就需要几个月的时间,美国需要提高军力部署,韩国需要全面准备,而且还要确保朝鲜藏匿的核设施的安全。


It would also cost hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides.

而且,进行全面战争,双方也都将面临成千上万条生命殒没。


In addition to heavy artillery bombardments, the People's Army has long trained for large scale commando infiltration into South Korea, using low, slow-flying biplanes which are hard to detect on radar, small boats and midget submarines.

朝鲜人民军除了具有超强的炮兵火力,而且还经过长期训练,能利用雷达难以监测的低空低速双翼飞机、小型舰船、小型潜艇对韩国进行突击渗透。


These would add to the chaos and loss of life in the event of any large scale conflict, and ensure that the comparatively fewer, albeit much higher-technology US and South Korean forces would be stretched painfully thin.

所有这些,将会在大规模冲突期间,让情况更混乱,让死伤更严重,也能让人数相对较少但科技水平却较高的美韩军队,吃不消。


The last time the US and its allies advanced into North Korea, during the Korean War in 1950, China entered the war on the side of the North to prevent the establishment of a unified Western-aligned Korea on its land border.

上次1950年朝鲜战争期间美国及其盟友挺进朝鲜时,中国支援朝鲜参战,以身边出现一个统一了的亲西方的朝鲜半岛。


Such a development is still something which China is not prepared to contemplate - the main reason it has propped up the Kim regime for so long.

发生那样的事情,中国目前依然还是不愿看到,这也是中国为什么一直以来都对金氏政权提供支持的主要原因。


Finally, even if somehow these huge problems could be overcome, a successful invasion of North Korea led by the US would leave it responsible for rebuilding a shattered country.

还有,即使所有这些重要问题都能克服得了,美国带领盟友对朝鲜发动全面战争,那么也就要对战后烂摊子的重建负责。


North Korea has existed in an unparalleled state of psychological manipulation, chronic economic hardship and isolation for over 60 years.

朝鲜在过去的60多年间,意识形态方面,一直都对全民进行着愚民教育,经济领域里,一直都面临着持续不断的困难,在国际交往方面,一直都处在与世隔绝的状态。


The monumental task of reintegrating East Germany after the Cold War pales in comparison.

与冷战后吸纳东德的任务之艰巨相比,吸纳朝鲜这个任务的艰巨程度之高,可完全不在一个量级上。


The reality is that none of the military options available to the US for dealing with North Korea come without high costs and significant risks - considerations which it will have to weigh up against uncertain and problematic potential outcomes.

现实就是,美国针对朝鲜所能采取的军事手段,没有一个是不需要付出极高代价、不需要面临极大风险的,也因此,美国在面对充满不确定性且问题重重的各种发展趋势时,则需慎重考虑,三思而后行。


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