亚洲的命数|《经济学人》：中日关系与亚太世纪的美国命运

原创 2017-09-12 从余启 我与我们的世界我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”，从此，让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界，既是一个“奋斗”的世界，也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔，思而不奋则殆。这个世界，你大，它就大；你小，它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章，因为，每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩。

本期导读：据维基百科“中日关系”词条介绍，中日关系是指中华人民共和国和日本之间的双边关系。在汉唐时期，中华文明在政治、经济、文化、宗教和科技等很多方面都对日本产生了深远的影响。但在日本明治维新后到1945年二战结束前，中日间发生了多次军事冲突及全面战争，形成了战后两国的政治格局并影响了以后的中日关系。1949年中华人民共和国成立后，日本仍与“中华民国”保持外交关系，直到1972年才与中华人民共和国建交，同时与“中华民国”断交。现时中华人民共和国将两国关系称为“战略互惠关系”，然而两国事实上并未达到战略互惠，而且在历史问题和经济等方面均存在许多矛盾。

The future of Asia

亚洲的未来

Brothers in arms

威武兄弟

Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of US Power in the Pacific Century

《亚洲的命数：中国、日本与亚太世纪的美国命运》

By Richard McGregor

著者：理查德·麦格雷戈

TO TWIST the old Anglo-American saw, China and Japan are two countries separated by a partly shared (written) language and culturally much else. Yet these two nations are among the great unreconciled of the 20th century’s warring parties. Worse, they are moving further apart.

中日两国之间的关系，与英美之间的老关系有那么一点点相似。中日虽为两国，但书面语言有很多共同点，文化方面的共同点则更多。不过，截至目前，中日两国依然是20世纪进行过战争但却仍未彻底和睦相处的一对儿冤家。更糟糕的是，中日两国正渐行渐远。

China and Japan have been regional rivals for at least a millennium, but began to cross swords only in the late 19th century. Before then, they had shared art, writing, Confucianism and Buddhism but otherwise stood apart, albeit sometimes a tad sullenly, with most Japanese rulers refusing to pay tribute to Chinese emperors in the manner expected of other neighbours. But then from 1895 until 1945 they were repeatedly at war—constantly, in the official Chinese account—and it is the legacy of that half-century that sours relations today.

中日两国在区域内的竞争，至少已有千年之久，不过，双方之间大打出手则只是到了19世纪晚期才开始。那之前，中日两国在艺术、书写、儒家、佛教等方面堪称一体，双方关系只是间或才会有所疏远，期间，也大多是日方拒绝以其他中国近邻那样的方式向中国皇帝进贡。但是，从1895年一直到1945年，中日之间一再发生战争，按中国官方的说法，是一直都在战争，而且，也正是源自那半个世纪的历史恩怨，时至今日，时不时地都会给中日双方之间的关系泼盆冷水。

The funny thing, as Richard McGregor shows in this well-documented account of the post-war triangular relations between China, Japan and America, is that after 1945 there was initially little tension between the two. Mao Zedong’s China waived reparations claims and made no real fuss about territorial issues.

有意思的是，正如麦格雷戈所著新书中对战后中日美三国关系所进行的详尽描述，1945年后，刚开始中日两国之间的关系几乎从未紧张过，毛泽东时代，中国还免除向日本索要战争赔款，也没对领土问题有过小题大做。

It was only in the 1980s that friction over interpretations of 20th-century history and Japan’s willingness or otherwise to apologise for it started to heat things up, reaching boiling point at various times during the succeeding decades. After the Communist Party’s scare over the Tiananmen protests in 1989, demonisation of Japan played a central role in Chinese nationalism, even as the claim that the Japanese might revert to their pre-war militarism has become less and less plausible. And hostility to China, along with revisionist views of history, have played growing roles in Japanese nationalism, too.

只是到了1980年代，中日双方对20世纪的历史产生不同解读，日方对战争道歉的态度变来变去，才让双方关系热闹了起来，并在随后的几十年间，多次濒临沸点。1989年事件后，中方因为忧虑开始妖魔化日本，这在燃起中国民族主义方面扮演了重要作用，即使中方声称日本可能重返战前军国主义越来越站不住脚。而且，日本对中国的敌意，加上日方的历史修正主义态度，也一直在点燃日本民族主义方面起着越来越重要的作用。

What to make of this? Are these, in the old Maoist phrase, just paper tigers or could they become real ones again? Mr McGregor is well placed to answer. He was born in Sydney and has worked as a journalist (for the Australian and the Financial Times) in both Tokyo and Beijing, and he speaks both languages. This gives him access to a range of archives and memoirs beyond the reach and nuanced comprehension of most other scholars.

而这，又能说明什么呢？所有这些，按照毛主席的话说，是否只是些纸老虎，抑或，会再次变成真老虎？对此，麦格雷戈有充分的发言权。麦格雷戈出生于悉尼，先后做过在《澳洲人报》和《金融时报》驻东京和北京记者，并会说日语和中文，这让他得以能亲自阅读大量档案和回忆录，让大多其他学者都望尘莫及。

His narrative of relations and contacts between the leading politicians and policy-makers in both countries, and of America’s interplay with the two, makes for a compelling and impressive read. One notable feature is how often the Americans, from Henry Kissinger to Barack Obama, seem to find their close Japanese allies more irritating and harder to understand than their Chinese counterparts, even as a rising China is coming to be seen as America’s greatest 21st-century challenger.

麦格雷戈对中日两国高层政治人物和决策者们之间联系和接触的描述，以及对美国在中日之间发挥的作用的描述，读起来趣味盎然，令人钦佩。其中值得一提的一点是，美国方面，从基辛格到奥巴马，发现作为美方盟友的日本，与中国比起来，经常会更令人不快、难以理解，即使正在崛起的中国，越来越构成美国在21世纪的最大挑战。

There is however a weakness with this narrative approach. Rather as television news often overlooks events and ideas if there is no video footage to go with them, so this very archive-led book tends to sacrifice analysis and the bigger picture.

不过，麦格雷戈的这本书，也有不足之处。就像电视新闻进行报道时，若不配上足够长的连续性视频画面，在事件完整性或观点公正性方面就会有所欠缺一样，麦格雷戈的这本书由于非常侧重于档案，因此在研判分析和宏观视野方面表现出一定欠缺。

A prime and very current example is North Korea. Between 1910 and 1945, the Korean peninsula was a Japanese colony. The Korean war of 1950-53 brought Chinese and American forces into combat, leading to a much hotter unreconciled set of relationships than the Sino-Japanese one. Yet tensions over and with both Koreas, and strategic concerns about the peninsula, get fewer mentions because they do not feature much in the archives of bilateral or trilateral relations. That is fair enough, but it makes this a history book, not a work of contemporary analysis.

一个重要且非常明显的例子就是朝鲜问题。1910至1945年间，朝鲜半岛是日本的殖民地，1950至1953年间的朝鲜战争，让中美军队正面相向，并催生出比中日关系更为恶性的系列关系，至今仍未解决。不过，朝鲜、韩国和朝韩关系相关的紧张状况，以及和朝鲜半岛有关的战略考量，书中没有提多少，这主要是因为，这些在中日双边以及中美日三边关系的档案中也没占太多，由此看来，这样也就没什么问题了，麦格雷戈的这本新书便可划归为历史类，而非时事分析类。

If there is to be war in East Asia, North Korea’s latest nuclear test on September 3rd suggests it is more likely to break out in Korea than over the small set of rocky islets in the East China Sea that China and Japan use to niggle each other or over the commemoration of war criminals in the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. Moreover, if the Chinese were to do the logical thing to avert a nuclear exchange by invading North Korea or forcing regime change there, which would put the North under their own nuclear umbrella, this would do more to swing the strategic balance in the region away from America and Japan and towards China than any other act. That would be Asia’s truest “reckoning”.

若将来东亚发生战争，朝鲜最近于9月3日进行的核试意味着，战争更可能在朝鲜爆发，而不会因中日争抢东海中的几个小岛礁或因日本在东京靖国神社供奉战犯爆发。还有，若中国按常规逻辑出牌，为避免核战争而侵入朝鲜或迫使朝鲜政权变更，这样就能把朝鲜置于自己的核保护之下，并能让地区战略平衡从美日方面向中国方面倾斜，对中国来说，这样做比其他任何方案都更为有利，或许，这也将是亚洲最为真切的“命数”。

理查德·麦格雷戈