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《德国大选》:默克尔未来的政治遗产,不在德国,而在欧盟

2017-09-15 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史信息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩


本期导读:政治遗产,是指历史推进过程中,有着重大政治影响的人物所遗留下来的对后世仍有启示作用的政治制度、政治理念、政治方向等,其中既包括为后世所直接受用的优良政治遗产,也有需要在新形势下发展的政治遗产,还有需要抛弃的不符合历史发展的劣质政治遗产。



Angela Merkel's legacy hinges on mending Europe

默克尔的政治遗产在于修复欧洲

By Paul Hockenos

作者:保罗·霍克诺斯

Paul Hockenos: a Berlin-based writer, his most recent book is Berlin Calling: A Story of Anarchy, Music, the Wall and the Birth of the New Berlin. 

保罗·霍克诺斯:德国柏林作家,著有新书《柏林的呐喊:无政府状态、音乐之魅力、柏林墙故事与新柏林诞生》。


It looks increasingly likely that the German national election on September 24 will secure Angela Merkel a fourth and final term as chancellor. With victory comes a definitive opportunity to distinguish her legacy.

情势越来越明朗,即将于9月24日举行的德国大选中,默克尔很可能获胜,将第四次同时也是她最后一次担任德国总理。若默克尔能赢得大选,这将是她刻绘政治遗产的最后一次决定性机会。


After 12 years in office, she'll go down in the history books as one of the great German leaders. Today, the country packs more gravitas -- economically and politically -- than at any time in the postwar era, as well as being a respected middle-heavyweight in world politics.

默克尔担任12年德国总理后,将会作为德国伟大领导人之一永载史册。当下,不管是在经济领域,还是在政治领域,德国正面临比战后任何时期都更为繁复的严峻议题,在世界政治领域,德国也是一个形象不错的中等重量级力量。


Berlin dominates the EU, which Merkel's Germany-first overtures have ensured works to Germany's benefit above all else.

欧盟内,德国的影响力其他成员都望尘莫及,默克尔的“德国优先”策略,也让德国比所有其他成员国都受益良多。


Yet, for all of Germany's fortune, Europe is mired in crisis and the EU is more ramshackle than ever since its founding six decades ago.

不过,事关德国命运的欧洲,目前深陷系列危机,欧盟也面临自六十年前成立以来最为严重的问题。


Merkel's legacy beyond Germany -- as a great European statesperson -- will hinge upon her ability, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, to reform the fraught EU, which is the key to so many of the continent's ills, including migration, the rise of far-right populism and economic stability.

默克尔在德国之外作为欧洲政界人物的政治遗产,将取决于她与法国总统马克龙一起对困扰重重的欧盟进行改革的能力,而欧盟,正是解决欧洲大陆所面临的诸如难民危机、民粹主义、经济稳定等系列问题的关键所在。


The question looming before the chancellor is whether she will leave behind her a German Europe -- an EU designed according to German precepts, in the service of German interests -- or a European Germany -- a country that understands its well-being as inseparably intertwined with those of its European partners.

默克尔所需回答的问题是,她想要的是一个“德国的欧洲”,让欧盟发展遵循德国意愿、为德国利益服务,还是一个“欧洲的德国”,让德国的福祉与欧洲伙伴们的福祉变成一个密不可分的机体。


The latter must be Merkel's ambition. Indeed, the chancellor has confirmed that she's prepared to work hand-in-glove with Macron to put the EU back on its feet. But Merkel, not a politician known for lofty visions, hasn't revealed her intentions concerning European reform during the election campaign, which has been woefully short of such nuts-and-bolts content as it is.

默克尔必须有勇气、有雄心选择后者。尽管默克尔已明确表示,她已准备好与马克龙紧密协作,重振欧盟。不过,默克尔并不是一位擅于筹谋宏伟愿景的政治人物,至今在竞选活动中还没阐述她的欧盟改革目标,更奢谈什么欧盟改革的具体细节。


She certainly realizes that Germany will have to relinquish some of its privileges in order for the EU to serve the interests of Europe as a whole -- not a position that would win her conservative votes at home.

默克尔肯定知道,为了让欧盟符合所有成员国整体利益,德国需放弃某些特有权益,而这一点,并不能让她在德国大选中获得保守选民的支持。


Germany is going to have to compromise -- and this must begin with the first order of business, which is shoring up the monetary union, the eurozone. Most economists in Europe concur that a common currency requires a full-fledged monetary union, in which the money and fiscal policies of its members are tightly woven together.

德国必须做出妥协,而做出妥协的首要领域,就在于拯救欧元区。欧洲多数经济学家都认为,有了统一货币欧元,就需要欧元区全面统一,需要欧元区成员的货币政策和财政政策都成为紧密的一体。


This one-for-all and all-for-one euro means putting in place mechanisms that make the strongest in the currency union -- those, like Germany, who profit most from the union's perks -- responsible for the weaker members, who profit less from borrowing rates and the euro's value.

这种“我为人人、人人为我”全面一体化的欧元区意味着,需要建立一些机制,让诸如德国等从欧元区获益较多的强势成员,要对从欧元利率汇率中获益较少的弱势成员担负相应责任。


Some Germans will believe that their country already has made compromises when southern European states and Ireland tanked in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008-2009. Yet Berlin always stopped short of vouching for the debts of weaker economies -- as must happen in a functional monetary union.

某些德国人或许会认为,德国已做了妥协,特别是2008-2009年金融危机后,南欧国家以及爱尔兰就因德国的付出而受到了保护。但是,德国却从没对欧元区较弱经济体的债务有过任何担保,而这正是统一货币得以正常发挥功能所必须的。


Merkel's conservatives also have plainly said no to deviating from their austerity and tight money policies -- German trademarks -- which Berlin claims are best for all of Europe, despite evidence to the contrary.

支持默克尔德保守派人士也直言不讳,对德国一直以来都坚持的紧缩性财政政策和货币政策进行松绑表示反对,并坚持认为,这些政策对欧洲所有国家都有利,却对在现实层面产生的负面效果视而不见。


And Germany has steadfastly resisted the easing of interest rates and other expansionary measures to stimulate investment, which could enable the rest of Europe to pull itself out of recession the way Germany has.

而且,德国也一直反对降低利率和其他扩张型措施来促进投资,而投资增长恰是能让欧洲其他国家摆脱经济衰退所需要的,正如德国曾摆脱经济衰退所做的那样。


It's an entirely positive sign that Macron appears to grasp what is at stake and, in part, what needs to be done.

有个积极的信号就是,马克龙貌似对问题的重点看得比较清,而且,某种程度上,对所需要做的工作看得也比较明。


Macron has underscored the necessity of more social and fiscal "convergence" in the monetary union, which points in the right direction.

马克龙已指出,有必要对欧元区社会政策和财政政策的“一体化”进行深化,这个方向是完全正确的。


He has floated the idea of a eurozone finance minister and common budget, the latter of which could finance investments to stimulate growth in struggling eurozone countries. It could also mean, Macron has implied, borrowing to do so (thus far, fresh debt has been a strict German taboo.)

马克龙也已提出,建议为欧元区设立财政部长,实施共同的财政预算,而通过共同的财政预算,便可安排投资资金刺激欧元区疲弱经济体的经济增长。马克龙或许也在暗示,也可通过欧元区成员之间进行资金筹借来达到这个目的(直到目前,德国一直严厉反对新增任何债务)。


Moreover, the French President wants a separate eurozone parliament within the EU, which would handle euro-related issues. Macron says he will announce a "dozen" proposals for the eurozone after the German election.

还有,马克龙也想在欧盟内部设立一个单独的欧元区议会,来处理与欧元相关的议题。马克龙表示,德国大选后,将会就欧元区宣布“一打”政策建议。



It's not crucial for Merkel's legacy that this reform agenda spring from her imagination. Rather, she must seize the moment to act and pull her own party on board, which will be no mean feat, given its conservatism. Yet she's run against the grain of Christian Democratic orthodoxy before -- on nuclear power, minimum wage, immigration, and other issues -- and pulled it off. She can do it again with the right coalition partner. "We will not falter," she said of eurozone reform in July together with Macron in Paris. "There will be further steps later this year."

默克尔所需要留下的政治遗产,相关改革议程并不一定非得由她自己亲自谋划,而她要做的,就是抓住机会,采取行动,并获得她自己政党的支持,鉴于她所领导的政党的保守性,这并非易事。不过,之前默克尔也在多项议题上与她所领导的政党基督教民主联盟的正统不慎相符,如核能发电、最低薪资、移民问题以及其他几项议题,并最终实现了目标。默克尔找到合适的合作伙伴的话,她还能再次实现目标。“我们不会踌躇不前”,七月份默克尔与马克龙在巴黎会面时曾就欧元区改革问题这样说,“今年晚些时候将会有进一步行动措施”€ 47 32469 47 15287 0 0 1624 0 0:00:19 0:00:09 0:00:10 3003 47 32469 47 15287 0 0 1468 0 0:00:22 0:00:10 0:00:12 2889 47 32469 47 15287 0 0 1339 0 0:00:24 0:00:11 0:00:13 3448‚



But the euro is not the EU's only problem child. The union as a whole suffers from a crisis of legitimacy that has caused its popularity to plummet and eurosceptic parties on the far left and right to flourish. Brexit was just one expression of the exasperation with business as usual. A glaring democracy deficit as ever more national powers are transferred to Brussels has other countries too, such as the Central Europeans, crying "enough!" Yet others, mainly in Western Europe, want to accelerate integration.

不过,欧元并不是欧盟所需处理的唯一问题。欧盟整体来讲,正面临合法性危机,民意支持暴跌,极左、极右派疑欧情绪上升,英国脱欧便是其中的一个典型。成员国政府向欧盟转移的权力越来越多,欧盟的民主赤字越来越大,让诸如中欧国家的民众大叫“够了!”。而其他成员国特别是西欧成员国,却想要加快一体化进程。


The EU's structural problems are so great that what is ultimately needed to fix it is a wide-ranging restructuring of its core bylaws and institutions. But this would require changes in the EU's founding treaties, which require all 28 members' legislatures approve them. Merkel knows, though, that there are far too many disparate views among the member states for treaty change of this magnitude to happen.

欧盟的结构性问题是如此严重,以至于无论要最终解决任何问题,都需对核心性法规制度采取伤筋动骨式的手术,做到这些,就需要对欧盟的基础性条约进行修订,这又要获得所有28个成员国的立法机构批准。不过,对欧盟的基础性条约进行如此程度的修订,各成员国在这方面的态度迥然相异,而默克尔对此也心知肚明。



Thus Merkel and Macron will probably go forward with a "two-speed" EU in which some countries would forge ahead in certain areas, such as defense or European unemployment insurance, while other countries would sit out, perhaps catching up to the "avant-garde" countries at a later point.

由此看来,默克尔和马克龙很可能将采取“双速欧盟”方案,某些成员国在诸如防务或失业保险等特定领域进一步一体化,而其他成员国则暂时止步,可在将来某个时候再追上那些“先进国家”。


The euro, with its 19 members, is one example of such a multi-speed approach. Yet there's resistance to this too. Smaller countries such as Poland, Hungary and Slovakia fear the two-speed approach would sideline them on all important matters.

拥有19个成员国的欧元区,便是这种多速方案的一个典型案例,不过,对于此类方案,也有反对声音。诸如波兰、匈牙利、斯洛伐克等小国担心,采取双速方案,将会让它们在所有重要议题领域被边缘化。


Angela Merkel is going to have to convince Germans that they profit when the EU as a whole profits, even when it costs Germany in other visible and immediate ways. This was the secret of postwar (West) Germany's success and paved the way for German unification in 1990.

默克尔也必须说服德国民众,只要欧盟整体上获益,即使德国某些方面在一定程度上会立即受损,德国民众也能从中受益。这是战后西德之所以获得成功的秘籍所在,也为1990年德国的统一铺平了道路。


The EU stands at a critical juncture, which a European Germany could do much to put on the right path. Everything hinges on Angela Merkel's conviction that this is imperative.

目前,欧盟又一次站在一个关键的十字路口,而以“欧洲的德国”的态度来处理相关问题,则会让欧盟踏上一条正确道路。而所有这些,都需要靠默克尔坚定信心:这是必须的。


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