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普京大帝|《经济学人》:俄罗斯明年总统大选,毫无悬念

2017-10-31 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界


欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史消息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩 


本期导读:十月革命,又称红十月、十月起义、列宁革命或布尔什维克革命,是1917年俄国革命经历了二月革命后的第二个阶段,推翻了以克伦斯基为领导的俄国临时政府,建立布尔什维克领导的政府。十月革命发生于1917年11月7日(儒略历10月25日)。


这场革命跟随并且利用了发生于同年的二月革命,那场革命推翻了沙皇专制并建立了以贵族和前贵族为主体组建的临时政府。此时城市工人开始组建委员会(俄语称“苏维埃”),其中革命者批评临时政府及其行动。


发生于彼得格勒的十月革命推翻了临时政府并给当地俄国社会民主工党中占据多数(俄语称“布尔什维克”)的派别控制的苏维埃赋予了权力。紧接着开始建立世界上第一个宣称社会主义的国家俄罗斯苏维埃社会主义联邦共和国。随着这场革命未能得到彼得格勒以外地区的广泛承认,俄国内战(1917–1922)爆发并于1922年建立苏联。


这场革命由布尔什维克利用他们在彼得格勒苏维埃中的影响力组建武装力量来领导。布尔什维克赤卫队武装在军事革命委员会指挥下开始于儒略历1917年10月24日接管政府建筑。翌日,冬宫(当时俄国首都彼得格勒的临时政府所在地)被夺取。


苏联等社会主义国家及组织普遍认为,十月革命是经列宁领导下的布尔什维克领导的武装起义,建立了人类历史上第二个无产阶级政权──苏维埃政权和由马克思主义政党领导的第一个社会主义国家。


革命推翻了以资产阶级的俄国临时政府,为1918至1920年的俄国内战和1922年苏联成立奠定了基础。而持有反对观点的学者认为,俄国临时政府实质上是由俄国社会革命党和孟什维克等社会主义者为主要成员的政府,而并非“资产阶级政府”;“冬宫之夜”也并未发生激烈的武装冲突。



A tsar is born

新沙皇降生


As the world marks the centenary of the October Revolution, Russia is once again under the rule of the tsar

100年前,十月革命消灭了沙皇,100年后的今天,俄罗斯再次迎来新沙皇。


SEVENTEEN years after Vladimir Putin first became president, his grip on Russia is stronger than ever. The West, which still sees Russia in post-Soviet terms, sometimes ranks him as his country’s most powerful leader since Stalin. Russians are increasingly looking to an earlier period of history. Both liberal reformers and conservative traditionalists in Moscow are talking about Mr Putin as a 21st-century tsar.

普京自首次登上总统宝座以来的17年间,他对俄罗斯的掌控,目前已抵达巅峰。西方国家,依然从后苏联时代的视角来看待俄罗斯,有时会把普京评定为斯大林时代后权力最大的领导人。而俄罗斯的有识之士,却越来越从更为长远的历史视角来看待这个问题,不管是自由主义的改革派,还是保守主义的传统派,都在把普京看作是21世纪的新沙皇。


Mr Putin has earned that title by lifting his country out of what many Russians see as the chaos in the 1990s and by making it count again in the world. Yet as the centenary of the October revolution draws near, the uncomfortable thought has surfaced that Mr Putin shares the tsars’ weaknesses, too.

普京获得如此殊荣,自有其功绩为基础,他不仅把俄罗斯从俄罗斯民众所说的1990年代的混乱中解救了出来,而且也让俄罗斯在世界上再次获得了应有的国际地位。不过,随着十月革命一百周年的临近,一个不那么令人感到舒服的隐忧也已浮出水面:普京也有着100年前那位沙皇所具有的相同的弱点。


Although Mr Putin worries about the “colour” revolutions that swept through the former Soviet Union, the greater threat is not of a mass uprising, still less of a Bolshevik revival. It is that, from spring 2018 when Mr Putin starts what is constitutionally his last six-year term in office after an election that he will surely win, speculation will begin about what comes next. And the fear will grow that, as with other Russian rulers, Tsar Vladimir will leave turbulence and upheaval in his wake.

尽管普京对“颜色革命”比较担心,因为颜色革命已横扫前苏联其他国家和地区,但更大的威胁不在于民众抗议,更不会是布尔什维克式的复兴崛起,而是在于,2018年初普京注定赢得大选后开启他宪法规定的最后一个六年任期之时,对谁将成为他的继任者的猜测,将会泛起,随之,恐惧担心也将会累增积聚,和其他俄罗斯统治者一样,弗拉基米尔这位沙皇的身后,恐怕也会留下一串串动荡和剧变。


译者注:

1、颜色革命:又称花朵革命,是指20世纪80、90年代开始的一系列发生在中亚、东欧独联体国家的以颜色命名,以和平和非暴力方式进行的政权变更运动,而且这些运动有像包括中东地区在内的地方蔓延的趋势。参与者们拥护自由民主与普世价值,通过非暴力手段来抵制控制着他们国家的现政权,通常采用一种特别的颜色或花朵作标志。目前颜色革命已在格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦等几个国家取得成功,推翻了原独裁政权,建立了民选政府。然而部分中东国家新政府建立后,因世俗派与伊斯兰主义派的争斗,未能建立有效的民主政权,导致政治争端不断(如埃及)。

2、布尔什维克:俄语中意为“多数派”,是俄国社会民主工党中的一个派别。布尔什维克派的领袖人物列宁认为,社会民主工党应该建立一个以少数“职业革命家”为核心、多数党员对其绝对服从的组织模式,即所谓民主集中制,但遭到党内另一派质疑和反对。1903年在布鲁塞尔和伦敦举行的俄国社会民主工党第二次代表大会上,布尔什维克派与党内另一派孟什维克因意见不合最终分道扬镳,由于布尔什维克人数多于对方,因此以俄语“多数派”得名。1917年,布尔什维克通过十月革命以暴力夺取了俄国政权,最终在日后成为苏联共产党。虽然布尔什维克在俄语当中的意思是多数派,但是直到1917年十月革命的时候,布尔什维克在俄国社会民主工党当中实际上一直是少数。


Firm rule

固权

Mr Putin is hardly the world’s only autocrat. Personalised authoritarian rule has spread across the world over the past 15 years—often, as with Mr Putin, built on the fragile base of a manipulated, winner-takes-all democracy. It is a rebuke to the liberal triumphalism which followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. Leaders such as Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, the late Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and even Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, have behaved as if they enjoy a special authority derived directly from the popular will. In China Xi Jinping this week formalised his absolute command of the Communist Party.

普京并非世界上唯一的独裁者。过去的15年间,个人威权统治已在全球范围内蔓延开来,而且通常情况下,和普京的情况一样,那样的统治都是建立在通过赢家通吃式的选举操控获得支持的脆弱基础之上,这对苏联解体后自由主义必胜的那种信念,简直是一种打脸。土耳其领导人埃尔多安、委内瑞拉已故领导人查韦斯,乃至印度总理莫迪,都有模有样地让人觉得,他们是从反映民众意志的选票中直接获得了某种特殊的威权。


Mr Putin’s brand of authoritarianism blazed the trail. It evokes Russia’s imperial history, offering a vivid picture of how power works and how it might go wrong.

普京式的威权主义,最具代表性,能让人想起俄罗斯历史中的帝国时代,权力是如何运作的,权力又是怎样一步步误入歧途的,时至如今,仍历历在目。


Like a tsar, Mr Putin surmounts a pyramid of patronage. Since he moved against the oligarchs in 2001, taking control first of the media and then of the oil and gas giants, all access to power and money has been through him. These days the boyars serve at his pleasure, just as those beneath them serve at their pleasure and so on all the way down. He wraps his power in legal procedure, but everyone knows that the prosecutors and courts answer to him. He enjoys an approval rating of over 80% partly because he has persuaded Russians that, as an aide says, “If there is no Putin, there is no Russia.

就像历史上的沙皇,普京也拥有大批跟随者。自2001年他针对寡头采取行动以来,先是控制了媒体,然后掌控了石油和天然气,所有通往权力和金钱的渠道,都纳入了他的掌控。如今,普京下面的权贵们,以让普京能高兴为荣,而那些权贵们下面的人,又以让那些权贵们能高兴为荣,以此模式,一直到底。普京以法律的名义把权力包裹的严严实实,但所有人都知道,监察系统、法院系统都听命于他。普京的支持率超过80%,部分原因在于,他已说服俄罗斯民众相信,正如普京的一个助手所说,“没有普京,就没有俄罗斯”。


Like a tsar, too, he has faced the question that has plagued Russia’s rulers since Peter the Great—and which acutely confronted Alexander III and Nicholas II in the run-up to the revolution. Should Russia modernise by following the Western path towards civil rights and representative government, or should it try to lock in stability by holding fast against them? Mr Putin’s answer has been to entrust the economy to liberal-minded technocrats and politics to former KGB officers. Inevitably, politics has dominated economics and Russia is paying the price. However well administered during sanctions and a rouble devaluation, the economy still depends too heavily on natural resources. It can manage annual GDP growth of only around 2%, a far cry from 2000-08, which achieved an oil-fired 5-10%. In the long run, this will cramp Russia’s ambitions.

也像历史上的沙皇,普京也面临彼得大帝之后所有俄罗斯统治者特别是亚历山大三世和尼古拉二世一直到十月革命所头痛的问题,俄罗斯是应沿着西方通往民权和代议政治的道路进行现代化,还是应为了固守稳定而坚决地逆向而行?普京的答案,是把经济交给自由主义的技术官僚,而把政治交给了前克格勃系统的人员。这导致的必然结果就是,政治凌驾于经济,俄罗斯也在付出相应的代价。俄罗斯尽管面临西方制裁、卢布贬值,经济管理也还算可以,但俄罗斯的经济依旧严重依赖自然资源。尽管年度GDP增长可达到可怜的2%左右,但这可比2000至2008年间相差不小,当时由于油价处于高位,增长率可高达5-10%。长期来看,这将让俄罗斯的种种雄心都难以躲过化为泡影的命运。


译者注:

克格勃:国家安全委员会(俄语:Комите́т госуда́рственной безопа́сности,俄文罗马化:Komitet gosudarstvennoy bezopasnosti),通称“克格勃”(КГБ,KGB)是1954年3月13日至1991年11月6日期间苏联的情报机构,当时被认为是全球效率最高的情报收集机构。苏联解体后,俄罗斯境内的原克格勃机关改制为俄罗斯联邦安全局,其第1总局另成立俄罗斯对外情报局。白俄罗斯则完整保留境内克格勃机关的建制及原有名称。


And like a tsar, Mr Putin has buttressed his power through repression and military conflict. At home, in the name of stability, tradition and the Orthodox religion, he has suppressed political opposition and social liberals, including feminists, NGOs and gays. Abroad, his annexation of Crimea and the campaigns in Syria and Ukraine have been burnished for the evening news by a captive, triumphalist media. However justified, the West’s outrage at his actions underlined to Russians how Mr Putin was once again asserting their country’s strength after the humiliations of the 1990s.

还有,像历史上的沙皇,普京也是通过镇压异己和军事行动来巩固自己的权力。在国内,普京以社会稳定、保护传统和东正教为名,打压政治反对人士和自由派社会人士,包括女权主义者、非政府组织以及性权益团体。在国外,普京把克里米亚收入囊中、在叙利亚和乌克兰采取军事行动,俄罗斯媒体对此如痴如醉,欢呼雀跃。西方国家对普京的行动有所恼怒,尽管也有相应的理由,但也让俄罗斯民众认识到,自1990年代俄罗斯遭受屈辱之后,正是普京再次让西方感受到了俄罗斯的国家力量。


What does this post-modern tsar mean for the world? One lesson is about the Russian threat. Since the interference in Ukraine, the West has worried about Russian revanchism elsewhere, especially in the Baltic states. But Mr Putin cannot afford large numbers of casualties without also losing legitimacy, as happened to Nicholas II in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 and in the first world war. Because today’s tsar knows history, he is likely to be opportunistic abroad, shadowboxing rather than risking a genuine confrontation. The situation at home is different. In his time in power Mr Putin has shown little appetite for harsh repression. But Russia’s record of terrible suffering suggests that, whereas dithering undermines the ruler’s legitimacy, mass repression can strengthen it—at least for a time. The Russian people still have something to fear.

这样一位后现代的沙皇,对整个世界意味着什么呢?第一个挑战就在于,俄罗斯所具有的威胁。自俄罗斯搅局乌克兰以来,西方国家就开始担心,俄罗斯会在其他国家或地区也开始那种复仇主义式的行动,特别是在波罗的海三国。不过,普京也不敢轻举妄动,那样的话,就会导致大量伤亡,也会伤害自己的权力基础,正如1904-1905年日俄战争和第一次世界大战给尼古拉二世所带来的灾难一样。因为,当今的这位沙皇,是知道历史的,他在国外可能会采取投机态度,会东一榔头西一棒槌的到处搞些试探性动作,而不会愿意真正去冒直接冲突的风险。俄罗斯国内的局势有点不一样,普京掌权的时代,已对惨无人道的镇压没什么胃口了,不过,在惩罚政治敌人的残酷行径方面,俄罗斯依然不乏其例,这也就意味着,如果犹豫不决不对政敌采取果断措施,则会侵蚀普京的政治合法性,而采取大规模打压,则会有助于加强其政治合法性,至少一段时间内是这样。时至今日,俄罗斯人民,依然面临恐惧。


Mother Russia’s offspring

母亲俄罗斯之子

The other lesson is about succession. The October revolution is just the most extreme recent case of power in Russia passing from ruler to ruler through a time of troubles. Mr Putin cannot arrange his succession using his bloodline or the Communist Party apparatus. Perhaps he will anoint a successor. But he would need someone weak enough for him to control and strong enough to see off rivals—an unlikely combination. Perhaps he will try to cling to power, as Deng Xiaoping did behind the scenes as head of the China Bridge Association, and Mr Xi may intend to overtly, having conspicuously avoided naming a successor after this week’s party congress. Yet, even if Mr Putin became the éminence grise of the Russian Judo Federation, it would only delay the fatal moment. Without the mechanism of a real democracy to legitimise someone new, the next ruler is likely to emerge from a power struggle that could start to tear Russia apart. In a state with nuclear weapons, that is alarming.

另一个挑战在于,权力继承问题。俄罗斯历史上,从来不缺乏权力于动荡局势中从一个统治者转移到另一个统治者手中的事例,而十月革命便是最近一次最为极端的事件。普京的话,不能通过血缘关系或苏共党政体系来安排他的继任者。或许,他会慢慢给某位继任者涂脂抹粉打扮一番,让他慢慢走向前台,但他需要的是一位不那么强势这样普京就能把他玩弄于鼓掌之中,但又足够强势以挫败潜在政治对手,要找到这样一个继承者,难度之高,堪比上青天。或许,他也会努力自己继续把持权力,不过,即使普京将来能成为“俄罗斯权力黑匣子联邦”的幕后操纵者,最多也只能让“权力黑匣子”崩溃的那一刻来的迟一点。如果不建立真正的民主机制来选出一位有充分政治合法性的新领导人,下一位统治者也将可能从权力斗争中诞生,那样就会撕裂俄罗斯,而俄罗斯是个拥核国家,有大量核武器,这着实令人担心。


The stronger Mr Putin is today, the harder he will find it to manage his succession. As the world tries to live with that paradox, it should remember that nothing is set in stone. A century ago the Bolshevik revolution was seen as an endorsement of Marx’s determinism. In the event, it proved that nothing is certain and that history has its own tragic irony.

现在,普京越强大,将来,他就会发现操控继承人就更难。整个世界就面临着这样一个悖论难题,但不过也需要认识到,一切都还没板上钉钉。一个世纪之前,布尔什维克领导的十月革命被视为马克思主义能决定一切的见证,但到头来,历史已证明,一切都充满不确定性,历史本身充满悲剧性反讽。


往期精彩:


意识形态|《经济学人》:国家竞争靠“实力”,美好生活靠“主义”

新书速递|《经济学人》:历史是一个姑娘,每人都能是化妆师

俄乌关系|《经济学人》:普京提出要价,西方如何接招?

新书速递|《经济学人》:苏联好男人,非戈尔巴乔夫莫属

普京政权|《全球脑库》:普京正在失去他对权力的掌控?

今日俄罗斯|《经济学人》:红墙内的男人帮,窥探普京王朝

表达的艺术|《概念摄影》:有人的地方,就有思想的力量,

《全球脑库》: 历史创造特朗普,还是特朗普创造历史?

何以中国|《经济学人》:复兴传统文化,创造中国历史

诗图一家|《远观中国》:只身远在萨摩亚,心魂牵系新中国


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