《中非关系》：津巴布韦有实无名“政变”，对中国影响几何？

原创 2017-11-18 从余启 我与我们的世界我与我们的世界

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本期导读：津巴布韦总统穆加贝及家人（包括“第一夫人”格蕾丝⋅穆加贝），当地时间11月15日凌晨被军方控制，随后军方占领津巴布韦的国家电视台总部，并宣称，穆加贝及家人目前安全，这不是一场政变。自1980年津巴布韦从英国独立至今，现年93岁的穆加贝一直是津巴布韦总统，手握大权。不同于往常听到的党派间斗争故事，这次津巴布韦的事件，主要是发生在执政党内部的斗争。

大约三年前开始，由于穆加贝日渐年高，身体状况变差，津巴布韦执政党津民盟（ZANU-PF）内部，围绕“后穆加贝时期”的领导权之争，也日渐加剧。由此，形成了两大阵营。一派是津民盟的老派，以现年75岁的姆南加古瓦为首，他历任国家安全部长、国防部长、司法部长、副总统，由于力主改革，具有很高的名望，此前一直被视为总统的有力候选人。

另一派则是津民盟的少壮派，由于党龄普遍在40岁左右，又被称为“40一代”，以52岁的“第一夫人格蕾丝”为首。她于2014年踏入政坛，作风一直比较独断专行，传言颇多。比如，早在2014年年底，她踏入政坛不久，当时的津巴布韦副总统穆朱鲁，就被指密谋暗杀总统穆加贝和贪污，从而被开除党籍，然后被解除政府职务。而此次姆南加古瓦被解除职务，也有诸多传言称与格蕾丝有关。2017年8月30日，穆加贝在一次会议中发言时，台下74岁的姆南加古瓦突然呕吐不止，后被迅速送往南非医治。随后就有传言称，姆南加古瓦是吃了格蕾丝家的冰激凌，才招致重金属中毒。

津民盟老派，大多参加过上世纪70年代津巴布韦的独立战争，具有很深的革命背景。而少壮派则大多没有参加过国家的独立战争，广受老派指摘。在这两股势力之外，还有两方的力量非常值得关注。一个就是总统穆加贝，根据津巴布韦的宪法，该国实行总统内阁制，总统同时兼任武装部队总司令，内阁成员由总统任命。因此，其权力非常大。另一方，则是国防军。从根源上来说，国防军是执政党津民盟一手扶植起来的，对执政党可谓“忠心耿耿”。

津巴布韦政局近期事件一览：

11月5日，格蕾丝高调声明，称已准备好接替穆加贝，成为新一任总统。

11月6日，穆加贝公开站队，宣布解除姆南加古瓦的职务，称他觊觎总统宝座，急于上位，甚至求助巫医。

11月8日，姆南加古瓦称，因人身安全遭到威胁，他已离开津巴布韦。

11月13日，军方正式表态，在一场新闻发布会中，国防军司令奇温加称，执政党内部的“不稳定”已经引发“忧虑、恐惧和失望”。执政党如果不结束内斗，军方将“毫不犹豫地介入”。

11月14日，军方装甲车开始在津巴布韦首都哈拉雷以外的道路部署，当时媒体报道，目的不明。

11月15日，当地时间凌晨1点多，哈拉雷传来几声疑似爆炸声，总统住宅附近则传来几声枪响，随后总统穆加贝及家人被控制。同时，首都被军方控制，津巴布韦国家电视台（ZBC）被军方接管。

随后军方发言人发表声明，称总统及家人都很安全，并强调，这是一次“不流血的政权过渡"，“我们针对的只是总统身边的犯罪分子，他们犯下的罪行正在给国家造成社会和经济上的苦难，我们要把他们绳之以法”。

The Chinese connection to the Zimbabwe 'coup'

津巴布韦有实无名“政变”，中国影响几何？

A visit by Zimbabwean army commander Constantino Chiwenga to China would not normally be seen as unusual, given Beijing's status as Zimbabwe's largest foreign investor and longtime ally.

鉴于中国是津巴布韦最大外资来源国和长期合作伙伴，津巴布韦国防军司令奇温加到访中国，本应不该视为不正常。

But days after Chiwenga returned from a recent trip to meet senior Chinese military leaders, Harare was plunged into political chaos as the Zimbabwean military -- led by Chiwenga -- seized control and placed President Robert Mugabe under house arrest.

不过，就在奇温加与中国军队高层面谈回国后没几天，津巴布韦就因军方在奇温加领导下控制软禁总统穆加贝而深陷政治危机。

In that context, Chiwenga's visit to China has come under scrutiny, with speculation that he had sought Beijing's tacit approval for a possible move against Mugabe.

这样看来，奇温加到访中国的目的，就需要值得思量一番了。已有推测说，奇温加已获得北京默许可能对穆加贝采取行动。

China's involvement in Zimbabwe stretches back to the 1970s, when Beijing covertly supplied ammunition and financing to Mugabe's guerrilla forces during the country's war of independence. In the intervening years, China has continued to provide financial and political support to the African nation, investing extensively across a range of sectors and helping to develop key infrastructure projects.

中国对津巴布韦国内事务的参与，可追溯到1970年代，当时北京方面就偷偷摸摸地给争取国家独立的穆加贝游击队提供弹药和资金。从那时候到当下的这些年间，中国一直持续给津巴布韦非洲这个国家提供资金和政治支持，在各个领域进行大量投资，并援建重要基础设施。

"Since Mugabe took power he has been consistently supported by the Chinese government. China has become the second largest trading partner with Zimbabwe and has invested very largely in the country," said Wang Xinsong, associate professor at Beijing Normal University School of Social Development and Public Policy. China would be very reluctant to see Zimbabwe fall into a period of social instability and political turmoil, he added.

北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院副教授王新松向记者说到，“自掌权以来，穆加贝一直都获得了中国政府的支持，中国已成为津巴布韦第二大贸易伙伴国，并在津巴布韦有大量投资”。王新松还说，中国方面，非常不愿看到津巴布韦陷入社会不稳、政局混乱。

But most observers say there is no way to know how involved China was in the apparent coup, or whether it received advanced warning. Cobus Van Staden, senior researcher on Foreign Policy at the South African Institute of International Affairs, described the possibility as a "billion dollar question."

不过，多数观察人士表示，津巴布韦所发生的有实无名的政变，没有办法知道中国在其中到底有没有作用或起到多大的作用，甚至也无法知晓，中国是否提前收到相关预警。南非国际事务研究院外交政策高级研究员科巴斯··凡·施塔登说那种可能性是一个“牵涉几十亿美元的问题”。

"The fact there were these kind of visits to Beijing right before (the coup) certainly seems indicative of something, but who knows what that was?"

“恰恰就在（政变）之前，对中国进行了这样的访问，这样的事实，确实看起来意味着点什么，但谁又能知道那点儿什么到底是什么呢？”

During Chiwenga's trip to China, he met with Central Military Commission member Gen. Li Zuocheng, according to a Chinese military press release, who told him Zimbabwe and China were "all-weather friends."

据中国军方新闻稿消息，奇温加到访中国时，见了中央军委委员李作成，后者告诉前者津巴布韦和中国是“全天候朋友”。

He also met with Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Chang Wanquan on November 10 in Beijing.

奇温加11月10日还在北京见了中国国防部长常万全。

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a press briefing on Thursday the visit was just a "normal military-to-military exchange" which had been planned in advance. "Since the defense ministry hosted him, I don't have other details," he said.

中国外交部发言人耿爽在周四的新闻发布会上表示，奇温加到访中国，只是事先已经安排的“正常军事交往”。更爽表示，“至于访问的具体情况，我不掌握。如果你感兴趣，可以向国防部去了解”。

'China will never forget its old friend'

“中国永远不会忘记老朋友”

The military ties between the two countries extend beyond mere exchanges, however. According to leaked US diplomatic cables, since independence in 1980, the Zimbabwean government has purchased a range of military hardware from China, "including aircraft, armaments, air defense radars, and medical equipment." In addition, claim the cables, "China regularly sends technical military advisers to work with their Zimbabwean counterparts."

不过，中津两国之间的军事关系远远不仅仅止于军事交流。据美国外交电报透露，自1980年独立以来，津巴布韦政府就从中国购买了系列军事装备，“包括战机、武器、防空雷达以及医疗器械”。此外，电报还显示，“中国经常向津巴布韦派遣军事技术顾问”。

Zimbabwe's recently deposed Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who was fired on November 7 by Mugabe in a move that likely triggered this week's apparent coup, was among the first Zimbabwean Zanu Party guerilla fighters to travel to China for military training.

津巴布韦副总统姆南加古瓦11月7日被穆加贝撤职，此举可能是本周所发生政变的导火索。而这位前任副总统，就曾是到中国接受军事训练的津巴布韦非洲民族联盟首批游击队成员之一。

More recently, China has helped finance and construct Zimbabwe's first highly specialized professional military college, Harare's National Defense College.

近年来，中国也提供援助资金建造了津巴布韦首所专业化军事学院，哈拉雷国防学院。

But it is 93-year-old Mugabe, now under house arrest, who has benefited most from China's unwavering support.

不过，正被软禁的93岁穆加贝，则是中方不懈支持的最大获益者。

As Mugabe's relationship with the West began to deteriorate into the later part of the 1990s, he increasingly looked to his old ally China for economic and political assistance.

1990年代后期，随着与西方的关系开始恶化，穆加贝越来越转向了他的老朋友中国寻求经济和政治支持。

In 2015 alone, Chinese investment topped $450 million, accounting for more than half of all foreign investment into Zimbabwe.

单2015年一年，中国对津巴布韦的投资就高达4.5亿美元，占津巴布韦外来投资一半以上。

"China is very loyal in this kind of way, they tend to stand by these long-time allies and every time someone like Mugabe would go to Beijing they'd roll out the red carpet," said Van Staden.

施塔登表示，“中国对这种方式非常偏爱，总会与这些久经时间考验的伙伴站在同一条战线，每次诸如穆加贝之类的老朋友到访中国，北京都会铺满红地毯来相迎。”

In January this year, Mugabe met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where he was told by Xi, "China will never forget its old friend."

今年1月，穆加贝与中国主席进行了会面，会面期间，穆加贝被告知，“中国永远不会忘记老朋友。”

But writing in the influential state media tabloid Global Times on Friday, Wang Hongyi, an associate research fellow at the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies, said concerns had begun to grow over the long-term safety of Beijing's investment in its African partner.

西亚非洲研究所副研究员王洪义（音译）周五在环球时报发文说，针对中国在津巴布韦这个非洲伙伴国投资的长期安全，担忧已开始蔓延。

"Chinese investment in Zimbabwe has also fallen victim to Mugabe's policy and some projects were forced to close down or move to other countries in recent years, bringing huge losses," said Wang. "Bilateral cooperation did not realize its potential under Mugabe's rule."

“近年来，津巴布韦的中国投资也已受到穆加贝政策的影响，有些项目被迫停工，或转移到其他国家，带来巨大损失”，王洪义说到，“穆加贝统治下，双边合作的潜力没有发挥出来。”

In the opinion piece, Wang said a change of government could be beneficial to China Zimbabwe relations. "Friendly ties will embrace new development opportunities," he said.

王洪义在评论文章中说，政府变更可能会对中津关系有利，“中津友好关系将带来新的发展机遇”。

'Distant but friendly country'

“相聚万里但友好甜蜜”

Official Chinese channels are being more circumspect though, not picking one side over the other.

不过，中国官方媒体都较为谨慎，都没选边站。

In a statement released after the apparent coup was under way, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman said China was "paying close attention" to the situation.

外交部发言人在政变发生后发布的声明中表示，中国正“密切关注”局势进展。

"We sincerely hope that the situation will remain stable in Zimbabwe and relevant affairs can be handled in a peaceful and proper way," the statement read.

声明中还说，“我们衷心希望津巴布韦局势稳定，有关问题能以和平适当的方式得到解决。”

"We will continue to develop friendly cooperation with Zimbabwe following the principle of equal and mutually beneficial cooperation with win-win results."

“我们将继续依照平等互惠、合作双赢的原则与津巴布韦发展友好合作关系。”

On Wednesday, an editorial published in the Global Times said no matter what, the Chinese government was unlikely to back down on its close relationship with Zimbabwe.

环球时报周三在一篇社评中表示，不管发生什么事情，中国政府都不会放弃与津巴布韦之间的紧密关系。

"China has played a positive and constructive role in Africa. The long-term friendship between China and Zimbabwe will transcend the internal disturbances in Zimbabwe," the editorial said.

该社评还说，“中国在非洲一直起着积极建设性作用，中津之间长期的友好关系将超越津巴布韦国内动荡”。

"The Chinese public would like to see peace in that distant but friendly country."

“中津两国尽管相聚万里，但双边关系友好甜蜜，中国人民希望津巴布韦和平安定。”