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诺奖得主有话说|《全球脑库》:2018年世界经济会怎样?

2017-12-07 从余启 我与我们的世界 我与我们的世界

【世界决定视界】【视界决定世界】

欢迎打开“我与我们的世界”,从此,让我们一起“纵览世界之风云变幻、洞察社会之脉搏律动、感受个体之生活命运、挖掘自然之点滴奥妙”。

我与我们的世界,既是一个“奋斗”的世界,也是一个“思考”的世界。奋而不思则罔,思而不奋则殆。这个世界,你大,它就大;你小,它就小。

欢迎通过上方公众号名称打开公众号“查看历史消息”来挖掘往期文章,因为,每期都能让你“走近”不一样的世界、带给你不一样的精彩 


本期导读:经济是人类对有限及稀缺资源做最优分配及有效使用的行为。现代经济离不开货币,其中被生产、流通、交换的物品被称为商品,既包括苹果和衣服等有形的物品,也包括法律咨询、邮政递送等无形的服务,还有证券等的权利,以及信息。


经济也可指一定范围(国家、区域等)内,组织一切生产、分配、流通和消费活动与关系的系统之总称。另一涵意是隐藏的不平等的欲望交换,而研究经济问题、探讨经济发展规律、解释经济现象成因的社会科学即称为经济学。


英文中economy源自古希腊语οικονομία(家政术)。οικος为家庭的意思,νομος是方法或者习惯的意思。因此,其本来含义是指治理家庭财物的方法,到了近代扩大为治理国家的范围,为了区别于之前的用法也被称为政治经济学。


中文世界里,古时以“食货”一词泛指经济财政之事,例如汉书以降历代史书中的“食货志”就记载了各时代的经济现况(汉书之前的史记则名之为“平准书”)。至于经济的辞源出自东晋时代葛洪《抱朴子・内篇》中的“经世济俗”,意为治理天下,救济百姓。隋朝王通在《文中子・礼乐篇》则将提出了“经济”一词:“皆有经济之道,谓经国济民”。后人遂将“经济”一词作为“经国济民”的省略语。清末戊戌政变后,改革科举制度,开“经济特科”,就是沿用了“经济”的本义。


江户后期至明治时期,欧美思潮涌入日本。神田孝平首先在《经济小学》一书中用经济一词翻译英文的“political economy”,然而也有人认为是福泽谕吉首先使用这样的译法。这段时期,日本学者开始用经济一词指代货币经济发展带来的种种活动,并有了“经济指维系社会生活所必须的生产、消费、交易等的活动”的提法。


这种与金钱、财物等实际问题相关的定义逐渐在日本流行,这种用法与明清时期中文语境中的“经济”的原始用法不同。当时日本亦有另一种译法“资生”,但是并未被普遍接受。而后用“经济”一词翻译英文的“political economy”的这种译法又被梁启超引入汉语,也取代了严复在《原富》中的译法“计学”或是传统的“生计学”、“平准学”,并进而在整个汉字文化圈内逐渐取代了经济一词的原本含义。



The Global Economy in 2018

2018年世界经济展望


The global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead, and looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous – and that thus increases the system's vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet the baseline scenario seems to be one of continuity, with no obvious convulsions on the horizon.

内容提要:未来几个月乃至几年,世界经济将面临系列严重挑战,隐约可见的一个挑战就是,债务规模如山,这已让各大金融市场如履薄冰,也使得整个经济体系更易遭受不稳定因素的冲击和影响。不过,目前的基本趋势看来仍会继续延续下去,也看不到能造成明显动荡的迹象。


Economists like me are asked a set of recurring questions that might inform the choices of firms, individuals, and institutions in areas like investment, education, and jobs, as well as their policy expectations. In most cases, there is no definitive answer. But, with sufficient information, one can discern trends, in terms of economies, markets, and technology, and make reasonable guesses.

诸如像我这样的经济学者们,一直会被反复问到系列问题,既有关于投资、教育、就业等领域的公司、个人、组织该如何进行决策的问题,也有这些领域内政策的预期会如何之类的问题。大多情况下,是没有确定性答案的。不过,如果信息足够充分的话,还是能从经济、市场或技术等视角对未来趋势进行辨别一二的,也能进行一定的合理预测。


In the developed world, 2017 will likely be recalled as a period of stark contrast, with many economies experiencing growth acceleration, alongside political fragmentation, polarization, and tension, both domestically and internationally. In the long run, it is unlikely that economic performance will be immune to centrifugal political and social forces. Yet, so far, markets and economies have shrugged off political disorder, and the risk of a substantial short-term setback seems relatively small.

对于发达经济体,将来人们回看2017年时,或许会把它看成是一个对比显著的时期,很多经济体经济增长在加速,而与此同时在政治领域却出现了观点分歧、态度极化、关系紧张等现象,不管是国内或国际都是这样。长期来看,经济表现若要免于离心政治社会势力的影响,可能性不大。不过,到目前为止,金融市场和各大经济体已扛住了政治秩序紊乱,经济在短期内出现逆势风险的可能性,还是相当低的。


The one exception is the United Kingdom, which now faces a messy and divisive Brexit process. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s severely weakened chancellor, Angela Merkel, is struggling to forge a coalition government. None of this is good for the UK or the rest of Europe, which desperately needs France and Germany to work together to reform the European Union.

有个例外就是英国,目前英国脱欧进程一团糟,观点不一。欧洲其他地方,德国的默克尔大选后力量大不如前,正在为组建联合政府而焦头烂额。这些情况,不管是对英国来说还是对欧洲其他国家来说,都是有害无益的,法德两国急需携手努力,对欧盟进行改革。


One potential shock that has received much attention relates to monetary tightening. In view of improving economic performance in the developed world, a gradual reversal of aggressively accommodative monetary policy does not appear likely to be a major drag or shock to asset values. Perhaps the long-awaited upward convergence of economic fundamentals to validate market valuations is within reach.

一个潜在性的冲击即货币紧缩,这点已受到各界人士的关注。鉴于发达经济体经济表现正在好转,对相当宽松的货币政策进行逐步紧缩,不大可能对资产价值带来重大负面影响或冲击。人们期待已久的经济基本面顺势上扬一起好转,或许很快就会到来。


In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping is in a stronger position than ever, suggesting that effective management of imbalances and more consumption- and innovation-driven growth can be expected. India also appears set to sustain its growth and reform momentum. As these economies grow, so will others throughout the region and beyond.

亚洲地区,中国领导力之强前所未有,这也就意味着,经济发展不平衡问题的处理、消费以及创新驱动性增长有望得到实现。印度的增长和改革势头也有望继续保持下去。随着这些重要经济体继续增长,亚洲以及其他地区的经济体也会随之实现增长。


When it comes to technology, especially digital technology, China and the United States seem set to dominate for years to come, as they continue to fund basic research, reaping major benefits when innovations are commercialized. These two countries are also home to the major platforms for economic and social interaction, which benefit from network effects, closure of informational gaps, and, perhaps most important, artificial-intelligence capabilities and applications that use and generate massive sets of valuable data.

关于技术特别是数字技术,未来几年,中美两国有望继续保持绝对优势,主要是鉴于两国会继续加大基础研究投资,并进而从各种创新的商业化应用中获取大量利润。中美两国也都是各大经济社会互动平台的所在国,这样就能从网络效应、信息差距缩小,或许最重要的是,从需要以大量数据信息为基础同时又能产生大量有价值的数据信息的人工智能的研发和应用中获益。


Such platforms are not just lucrative on their own; they also produce a host of related opportunities for new business models operating in and around them, in, say, advertising, logistics, and finance. Given this, economies that lack such platforms, such as the EU, are at a disadvantage. Even Latin America has a major innovative domestic e-commerce player (Mercado Libre) and a digital payments system (Mercado Pago).

那样的经济社会平台不仅它们自己的利润可观,而且也能在其所在领域或周边领域带来大量与新型商业模式相关的商机,比如说,广告、物流、金融等。鉴于此,诸如欧盟等缺少那种类型的平台的经济体,就处于不利地位。即使连拉美,本地区也有一个重要的创新型电子商务平台(Mercado Libre)和一套数字支付系统(Mercado Pago)。


In mobile online payments systems, China is in the lead. With much of the country’s population having shifted directly from cash to mobile online payments – skipping checks and credit cards – China’s payments systems are robust.

在移动在线支付系统方面,中国处于领先地位。鉴于中国人大多已从直接利用现金支付转用移动在线支付,这样就不用支票或信用卡等繁琐程序,中国的支付系统正充满活力。


Earlier this month on Singles’ Day, an annual festival of youth-oriented consumption that has become the single largest shopping event in the world, China’s leading online payment platform, Alipay, processed up to 256,000 payments per second, using a robust cloud computing architecture. There is also impressive scope for expanding financial services – from credit assessments to asset management and insurance – on the Alipay platform, and its expansion into other Asian countries via partnerships is well underway.

前段时间专注于年轻人消费的年度盛会“光棍节”,目前已成为全球最大的购物盛会,当日,中国领先的在线支付平台支付宝通过一套强大的云计算架构,每秒钟处理的支付交易量高达256000笔。在支付宝平台上,金融服务的范围也在继续扩张,囊括了从信用评估到资产管理以及保险等业务领域,而且,该平台也正通过与亚洲其他国家建立合作伙伴关系稳步进军其他市场。


In the coming years, developed and developing economies will also have to work hard to shift toward more inclusive growth patterns. Here, I anticipate that national governments may take a back seat to businesses, subnational governments, labor unions, and educational and non-profit institutions in driving progress, especially in places hit by political fragmentation and a backlash against the political establishment.

未来几年,发达经济体与发展中经济体也需要努力转向更具包容性的增长模式。在此,我认为,各个国家政府或许可让商界、地方政府、工会组织、教育以及非营利机构在促进进步方面大显身手,特别是在遭受政治分歧冲击和政治建制派受到反对的国家或地区。


Such fragmentation is likely to intensify. Automation is set to sustain, and even accelerate, change on the demand side of labor markets, in areas ranging from manufacturing and logistics to medicine and law, while supply-side responses will be much slower. As a result, even if workers gain stronger support during structural transitions (in the form of income support and retraining options), labor-market mismatches are likely to grow, sharpening inequality and contributing to further political and social polarization.

这样的政治分歧可能会继续强化。自动化技术替代人工的趋势会继续下去,甚至可能会加速进行,这会导致从制造到物流再到医药和法律等诸多行业领域的劳动力市场需求侧发生变化,而与此同时,供给侧的反应却要慢很多。结果就是,即使工人们在结构转型期间能够获得很强的支持(形式包括提高薪资水平或提供再培训机会等),劳动力市场错配的问题也可能会继续恶化,这会进一步拉大社会差距,给政治社会极化火上浇油。


Nonetheless, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. For starters, there remains a broad consensus across the developed and emerging economies on the desirability of maintaining a relatively open global economy.

不过,也有几个方面可以让我们保持谨慎乐观。首先就是,发达经济体和新兴经济体大都依然拥有一项共识,那就是需要保持全球经济的相对开放性。


The notable exception is the US, though it is unclear at this point whether President Donald Trump’s administration actually intends to retreat from international cooperation, or is merely positioning itself to renegotiate terms that are more favorable to the US. What does seem clear, at least for now, is that the US cannot be counted on to serve as a principal sponsor and architect of the evolving rules-based global system for fairly managing interdependence.

美国显然是一个例外,尽管目前仍不清楚特朗普政府是真的有意从国际合作中退出,还是仅为摆个架势以在谈判中让美国获得更多好处。不过,比较清楚的一点是,不能再指望美国来通过把控好各个经济体之间的相互依赖关系为基于规则的全球体系的演变提供领导和支持,至少目前来看是这样。


The situation is similar with regard to mitigating climate change. The US is now the only country that is not committed to the Paris climate agreement, which has held despite the Trump administration’s withdrawal. Even within the US, cities, states, and businesses, as well as a host of civil-society organizations, have signaled a credible commitment to fulfilling America’s climate obligations, with or without the federal government.

在应对气候变化问题方面,情势相似。美国目前是唯一一个不再遵守巴黎气候变化协议承诺的国家,尽管特朗普政府退出了该协议,但该协议依然有效,还在执行。即使是在美国国内,各大城市、各地方州以及商界,包括大量民间社会组织机构,都表示继续履行美国对气候变化的承诺,不管美国联邦政府是否履行。


Still, the world has a long way to go, as its dependence on coal remains high. The Financial Times reports that peak demand for coal in India will come in about ten years, with modest growth between now and then. While there is upside potential in this scenario, depending on more rapid cost reductions in green energy, the world is still years away from negative growth in carbon dioxide emissions.

但是,对于整个世界来说,应对气候变化问题方面,前面还有很长的路要走,因为对煤炭的依赖依然很高。据金融时报报道,印度的煤炭需求将在未来10年间达到峰值,从现在到达到峰值期间,印度的煤炭需求会适度增长。尽管这样的趋势中也能看到积极的方面,而这主要靠绿色能源成本下降速度更快,但整个世界要实现二氧化碳排放负增长,还需要多年。


All of this suggests that the global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead. And looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous and increases the system’s vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet the baseline scenario in the short run seems to be one of continuity. Economic power and influence will continue to shift from west to east, without any sudden change in the pattern of job, income, political, and social polarization, primarily in the developed countries, and with no obvious convulsions on the horizon.

所有这些就意味着,世界经济在未来的几个月乃至几年间,将会面临系列严峻挑战。而且,隐约可见的一项挑战就是堆积如山的债务,这已让各大金融市场紧绷神经,也提高了整个世界经济系统遭受不稳定性冲击的风险。不过,短期来看,目前的发展趋势还会持续进行下去。经济力量和影响力将会继续从西方向东方转移,各个国家,特别是发达国家,在就业行情、收入水平、政治情势、社会态势等方面,不会出现急剧变化,也看不到能造成明显动荡的迹象。


Contributor: Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

作者简介:迈克尔·斯彭斯,诺贝尔经济学奖得主,纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学教授,对外关系委员会特邀学者,斯坦福大学胡佛研究所资深研究员,香港亚洲全球研究院顾问委员会联合主席,世界经济论坛新增长模式全球议程委员会主席。2006至2010年间曾任针对全球经济增长进行分析而设立的国际项目“增长与发展”独立委员会主席,著有《下一次大合流:多速世界中未来的经济增长》。


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深度报告|《皮尤研究中心》:中美力量博弈与全球局势变迁

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排行榜|《国际关系重镇一览》:大国博弈,本质是智慧角力

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深度报告|《世界经济论坛》:实现男女平等,还要再等100年

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中国2030|《经济学人智库》:中产崛起,消费升级,你将在哪一级?

深度报告|《麦肯锡全球研究院》:自动化时代来临,你的工作是否足够稳?


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