【经济学人双语阅读】险象环生的2016年 The year of living dangerously

The year of living dangerously

险象环生的2016年

Liberals have lost most of the arguments in 2016. They should not feel defeated so much as invigorated

2016年让自由主义者无言以对。与其说他们感到挫败，不如说他们越挫越勇。

FOR a certain kind of liberal, 2016 stands as a rebuke. If you believe, as The Economist does, in open economies and open societies,where the free exchange of goods, capital, people and ideas is encouraged and where universal freedoms are protected from state abuse by the rule of law, then this has been a year of setbacks. Not just over Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, but also the tragedy of Syria, abandoned to its suffering, and widespread support—in Hungary, Poland and beyond—for “illiberal democracy”. As globalisation has become a slur, nationalism, and even authoritarianism, have flourished.In Turkey relief at the failure of a coup was overtaken by savage (and popular) reprisals. In the Philippines voters chose a president who not only deployed death squads but bragged about pulling the trigger. All the while Russia, which hacked Western democracy, and China, which just last week set out to taunt America by seizing one of its maritime drones, insist liberalism is merely a cover for Western expansion.

对于某些自由主义者而言，2016年真可谓多灾多难。如果你和《经济学人》一样，对开放的经济和开放的社会充满信心，认为商品、资金、人员及思想等方面的交流应该得到鼓励，普遍自由应该得到保护，免受国家滥用法治的破坏，那么，今年的确是挫折不断的一年。不光是因为英国退欧和特朗普当选美国总统，还有在水深火热之中孤立无援的叙利亚悲剧，以及在匈牙利、波兰及其他国家对“非自由主义民主”的广泛支持。随着全球化成为众矢之的，民族主义乃至独裁主义蔚然成风。土耳其从未遂政变中刚刚缓过劲来，便展开了野蛮的（民众的）报复行动。在菲律宾，选民们推举的总统不仅部署了一次次的暗杀行动，还对杀人行为自吹自擂。俄罗斯黑掉了西方的民主，中国上周刚刚逮住了美国的无人潜航器，出了美国的洋相，而这两个国家自始至终都坚持认为，自由主义无非是西方扩张的一块儿遮羞布而已。

Faced with this litany, many liberals (of the free-market sort) have lost their nerve. Some have written epitaphs for the liberal order and issued warnings about the threat to democracy. Others argue that, with a timid tweak to immigration law or an extra tariff, life will simply return to normal. That is not good enough. The bitter harvest of 2016 has not suddenly destroyed liberalism’s claim to be the best way to confer dignity and bring about prosperity and equity. Rather than ducking the struggle of ideas, liberals should relish it.

面对不胜枚举的难题，不少自由主义者（自由市场派）慌了神。有人为自由秩序写了墓志铭，还发出了民主受到威胁的警告。其他人则辩称，只要对移民法案或额外关税稍加改进，生活便可安然无恙。这些态度并不可取。曾几何时，自由主义曾自诩为带给人们尊严、繁荣和公道的最佳方式，而今，它被2016年的苦果毁于一旦，也算不得突然。面对观念之争，自由派与其仓皇逃避，倒不如甘之如饴。

Mill wheels 风水轮流转

In the past quarter-century liberalism hashad it too easy. Its dominance following Soviet communism’s collapse decayed into laziness and complacency. Amid growing inequality, society’s winners told themselves that they lived in a meritocracy—and that their success was therefore deserved. The experts recruited to help run large parts of the economy marvelled at their own brilliance. But ordinary people often saw wealth as a cover for privilege and expertise as disguised self-interest.

在过去的25年中，自由主义的发展太过顺遂。随着苏联共产主义的垮台，自由主义统治慢慢蜕变成懒惰与自满。伴随着日益严重的贫富不均，社会中的大赢家们告诉自己，这是精英的天下，所以他们的成功理所当然。受聘的精英们操控着大部分经济活动，他们为自己的聪明才智感到叹为观止。而在老百姓眼中，财富背后掩盖的是特权，专业之下伪装的是自身利益。

After so long in charge, liberals, of all people, should have seen the backlash coming. As a set of beliefs that emerged at the start of the 19th century to oppose both the despotism of absolute monarchy and the terror of revolution, liberalism warns that uninterrupted power corrupts. Privilege becomes self-perpetuating. Consensus stifles creativity and initiative. In an ever-shifting world, dispute and argument are not just inevitable; they are welcome because they lead to renewal.

在大行其道了多年之后，各国的自由主义者们应该都看到了，报应已经来了。自由主义于19世纪初萌芽，是一套反对君主专制和革命恐怖的思想信念，它告诫人们，连续执政必然会导致腐败；特权会自行世代延绵；一致意见会扼杀创造力和能动性。在不停变化的世界中，分歧与争论不仅是不可避免的；更是值得欢迎的，因为他们会带来重生。

What is more, liberals have something to offer societies struggling with change. In the 19th century, as today, old ways were being upended by relentless technological, economic, social and political forces. People yearned for order. The illiberal solution was to install someone with sufficient power to dictate what was best—by slowing change if they were conservative, or smashing authority if they were revolutionary. You can hear echoes of that in calls to “take back control”, as well as in the mouths of autocrats who,summoning an angry nationalism, promise to hold back the cosmopolitan tide.
更重要的是，自由主义有助于我们在这个日新月异的世界当中应对各种变化。和今天一样，在19世纪时，技术、经济、社会和政治等各种力量也在不断地推陈出新。人们渴望秩序。而按照非自由主义套路，要建立秩序，就得局限人们的权力，令人无法行使最佳方案，比如，当人们保守时，就放缓变化的脚步，而当人们激进时，则粉碎他们的权威。在“夺回控制权”的呼声当中，从那些承诺力挽全球化狂澜的独裁者口中，从他们唤起的愤怒的民族主义中，你都可以听出这样的回响。

Liberals came up with a different answer.Rather than being concentrated, power should be dispersed, using the rule of law, political parties and competitive markets. Rather than putting citizens at the service of a mighty, protecting state, liberalism sees individuals as uniquely able to choose what is best for themselves. Rather than running the world through warfare and strife, countries should embrace trade and treaties.

而自由主义者的答案则截然不同。他们反对权力集中，支持通过法治、政党和竞争市场等方式，分散权力。在强大的国家面前，人民未必要扮演被保护的角色，自由主义认为，每个人都能够为自己做出独一无二的最佳选择。与其爆发战争和冲突，各国倒不如通过贸易和条约来治理世界。

Such ideas have imprinted themselves on the West—and, despite Mr Trump’s flirtation with protectionism, they will probably endure. But only if liberalism can deal with its other problem: the loss of faith in progress.Liberals believe that change is welcome because, on the whole, it is for the better. Sure enough, they can point to how global poverty, life expectancy,opportunity and peace are all improving, even allowing for strife in the Middle East. Indeed, for most people on Earth there has never been a better time to be alive.

这样的观念在西方根深蒂固，尽管特朗普一再挑起保护主义，这些观念八成还会经久不衰。但前提是，自由主义可以解决好其他问题，即人民对进步丧失的信心。自由主义者坚信变化是好事，因为总体而言，变化就是要变得更好。毋庸置疑，他们会说，全球贫困、人均寿命、发展机遇、及世界和平等问题都在不断向好，甚至在中东这样的地区，都可以爆发冲突了。确实，对于大部分地球人而言，再没有比现在更好的生存时代了。

Large parts of the West, however, do not see it that way. For them, progress happens mainly to other people. Wealth does not spread itself, new technologies destroy jobs that never come back, an underclass is beyond help or redemption, and other cultures pose a threat—sometimes a violent one.

然而，在西方，许多人其实不这么看。对于他们而言，进步多半只与别人有关。财富不会自动分散，被技术革新扼杀掉的就业机会一去不返，社会底层寻求不到帮助或救赎，还有其他文化构成的威胁，有时甚至是暴力威胁。

If it is to thrive, liberalism must have an answer for the pessimists, too. Yet, during those decades in power, liberals’ solutions have been underwhelming. In the 19th century liberal reformers met change with universal education, a vast programme of public works and the first employment rights. Later, citizens got the vote, health care and a safety net. After the second world war, America built a global liberal order, using bodies such as the UN and the IMF to give form to its vision.

如果自由主义想要兴旺发达，必须给悲观者一个交代。然而，在当道的这几十年间，自由主义套路并未带来强烈反响。在19世纪，自由主义改革家们为了顺应发展变化，推行了普遍教育这一庞大的公益项目，还首次施行了雇佣权。滞后，市民们获得了选举资格、医疗服务和社会保障网。二战之后，美国在全球建立了自由秩序，通过联合国和国际货币基金组织等机构来搭建它眼中的未来。

Nothing half so ambitious is coming from the West today. That must change. Liberals must explore the avenues that technology and social needs will open up. Power could be devolved from the state to cities, which act as laboratories for fresh policies. Politics might escape sterile partisanship using new forms of local democracy. The labyrinth of taxation and regulation could be rebuilt rationally. Society could transform education and work so that“college” is something you return to over several careers in brand new industries.The possibilities are as yet unimagined, but a liberal system, in which individual creativity, preferences and enterprise have full expression, is more likely to seize them than any other.

想当年西方壮志凌云，而今却已大不如前。这一定要改。自由主义者必须探索新出路，通过技术和社会需求打开局面。国家可以将权力下放给城市，让城市变成新政策的试验田。通过地方民主的新形式，政治也许不会成为徒劳无功的党派之争。错综复杂的税收与监管可以理性地建立。社会可以进行教育和就业变革，让“大学”成为那些在新兴行业干了好几份工作的人们的回炉之地。可能性超乎你我的想象，但是，在自由主义制度中，个人的创造性、偏好和企图心可以发挥到淋漓尽致，因此，相对于其他制度而言，自由主义制度才更有可能把握上述可能性。

The dream of reason 理性的梦想

After 2016, is that dream still possible? Some perspective is in order. This newspaper believes that Brexit and a Trump presidency are likely to prove costly and harmful. We are worried about today’s mix of nationalism, corporatism and popular discontent. However, 2016 also represented a demand for change. Never forget liberals’ capacity for reinvention. Do not underestimate the scope for people, including even a Trump administration and post-Brexit Britain, to think and innovate their way out of trouble. The task is to harness that restless urge, while defending the tolerance and open-mindedness that are the foundation stones of a decent, liberal world.

2016年过后，这个梦想是否依然可能实现？某些未来是可想而知的。本刊认为，事实很有可能会证明，英国退欧和特朗普当选总统是代价昂贵且有害无利的。今天，民族主义、法团主义和民众不满的相互交织令我们忧心忡忡。不过，2016年也呈现出人们求变的需求。切记自由主义的重生能力。不要低估人们思考和创新脱困之路的范围，包括特朗普政府执政的美国，和退出欧盟的英国。我们的任务是把持住躁动不安的冲动，同时捍卫宽容和开放的思想，这才是一个体面的自由世界的基石。