【经济学人双语阅读】美国总统：揭竿而起 An insurgent in the White House

America’s president 美国总统

An insurgent in the White House 

白宫里的造反派

As Donald Trump rages against the world he inherited as president, America’s allies are worried—and rightly so

身为总统，特朗普对他接手的世界义愤填膺，美国盟友们诚惶诚恐——不慌才怪咧

WASHINGTON is in the grip of a revolution. The bleak cadence of last month’s inauguration was still in the air when Donald Trump lobbed the first Molotov cocktail of policies and executive orders against the capital’s brilliant-white porticos. He has not stopped. Quitting the Trans-Pacific Partnership, demanding a renegotiation of NAFTA and a wall with Mexico, overhauling immigration, warming to Brexit-bound Britain and Russia, cooling to the European Union, defending torture, attacking the press: onward he and his people charged, leaving the wreckage of received opinion smouldering in their wake. 

华盛顿已淹没于革命的洪流之中。上个月就职典礼的凄凉调调还未消失殆尽，特朗普总统就将第一波政策和行政命令的燃烧弹投向了首都华丽丽的白宫。他简直停不下来。退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协议（TPP），要求重新商议北美自贸协定（NAFTA），在墨西哥边境修建隔离墙，整顿移民，与退欧缠身的英国和俄罗斯套近乎，与欧盟保持距离，支持酷刑，攻击媒体：他和他的人马火力全开，对各方意见置若罔闻。

To his critics, Mr Trump is reckless and chaotic. Nowhere more so than in last week’s temporary ban on entry for citizens from seven Middle Eastern countries—drafted in secret, enacted in haste and unlikely to fulfil its declared aim of sparing America from terrorism. Even his Republican allies lamented that a fine, popular policy was marred by its execution.

批评特朗普的人认为他胆大妄为，脑子进水。上周针对中东七国公民禁止入境的临时禁令就是最好的例证，该禁令不仅起草得神秘，颁布得匆忙，而且其保护美国隔绝恐怖主义的初衷亦难以实现。即便是特朗普的共和党同盟也不禁感叹，一个受人欢迎的好政策被他的禁令毁于一旦了。

In politics chaos normally leads to failure. With Mr Trump, chaos seems to be part of the plan. Promises that sounded like hyperbole in the campaign now amount to a deadly serious revolt aimed at shaking up Washington and the world.

在政坛，混乱通常招致失败。而在特朗普这儿，混乱却似乎是有心为之。竞选时的那些信誓旦旦，成为了如今要了命的、意图震动华盛顿和世界政坛的肆无忌惮。

The Cocktail Party 鸡尾酒会

To understand Mr Trump’s insurgency, start with the uses of outrage. In a divided America, where the other side is not just mistaken but malign, conflict is a political asset. The more Mr Trump used his stump speeches to offend polite opinion, the more his supporters were convinced that he really would evict the treacherous, greedy elite from their Washington salons.

要理解特朗普的揭竿而起，先得懂得愤怒的妙用。在美国这样一个分裂的国家，对手不仅不辨是非，而且还心狠手辣，于是，冲突成为了一种政治资产，顺理成章。特朗普对于得体意见批判得越出格，其支持者们越相信那些奸诈、贪婪的精英们会被他从华盛顿圈中扫地出门。

His grenade-chuckers-in-chief, Stephen Bannon and Stephen Miller, have now carried that logic into government (see ). Every time demonstrators and the media rail against Mr Trump, it is proof that he must be doing something right. If the outpourings of the West Wing are chaotic, it only goes to show that Mr Trump is a man of action just as he promised. The secrecy and confusion of the immigration ban are a sign not of failure, but of how his people shun the self-serving experts who habitually subvert the popular will.

特朗普的首席掷弹兵——斯蒂芬·巴农（Stephen Bannon）和斯蒂芬·米勒（Stephen Miller），如今已经带着这样的理念进入了政府。每一次示威者和媒体对特朗普的横刀相向，都证明特朗普又做对了一件事情。如果白宫内部暴露出混乱不堪的样子，那只能说明特朗普是条汉子，言必行，行必果。移民禁令做足保密工作，让人不明就里，但这不是失败的标志，反而体现了总统的手下成功地避开了那些总是违背民意、利益熏心的专家们。

The politics of conflict are harnessed to a world view that rejects decades of American foreign policy. Tactically, Mr Trump has little time for the multilateral bodies that govern everything from security to trade to the environment. He believes that lesser countries reap most of the rewards while America foots the bill. It can exploit its bargaining power to get a better deal by picking off countries one by one.

在否定了长达几十年的美国外交政策的世界观之下，冲突政治被运用得炉火纯青。从战术上讲，特朗普懒得参与多方机构，无意在安全、贸易、环保等问题治理上浪费任何时间。他信奉的是，在美国买单的前提下，参与国家应该更少，这样所分得的利益才可能最多。美国完全可以竭尽其讨价还价之能事，对贸易伙伴们各个击破，做更好的买卖。

Mr Bannon and others reject American diplomacy strategically, too. They believe multilateralism embodies an obsolete liberal internationalism. Today’s ideological struggle is not over universal human rights, but the defence of “Judeo-Christian” culture from the onslaught of other civilisations, in particular, Islam. Seen through this prism, the UN and the EU are obstacles and Vladimir Putin, for the moment, a potential ally.

从战略上讲，巴农等人还对美国的外交表示反对。他们认为，多边主义是过时的、自由主义全球化的化身。今天的意识形态之争无关普遍人权，而是保护“犹太教-基督教”文化免受其他文明的荼毒，尤其是伊斯兰教。透过三棱镜，联合国和欧盟成为了美国的障碍，而普京在此时此刻，却变成了一个潜在盟友。

Nobody can say how firmly Mr Trump believes all this. Perhaps, amid the trappings of power, he will tire of guerrilla warfare. Perhaps a stockmarket correction will so unsettle the nation’s CEO that he will cast Mr Bannon out. Perhaps a crisis will force him into the arms of his chief of staff and his secretaries of defence and state, none of whom is quite the insurgent type. But don’t count on it happening soon. And don’t underestimate the harm that could be done first.

谁也不知道特朗普对这此深信不疑到何种程度。也许，在权力的外衣之下，他会厌倦游击战。也许，一场股市的调整会让这位一国之君茶饭不思，炒了巴农的鱿鱼。也许，一次危机会让他投向参谋长、国防部长和国务卿的怀抱，这些人都不属于反动派。但是，别指望这一切会很快发生。而且，也别低估了可能会最先造成的伤害。

Talking Trumpish 特朗普范儿

Americans who reject Mr Trump will, naturally, fear most for what he could do to their own country. They are right to worry (see ), but they gain some protection from their institutions and the law. In the world at large, however, checks on Mr Trump are few. The consequences could be grave.

反对特朗普的美国人最担心的一点，就是他会对美国做些什么，这是自然。人们不担心才怪，但好歹还有制度和法律可以保护他们。然而，偌大一个世界，却没有什么可以阻挡特朗普。这样下去，后果不堪设想。

Without active American support and participation, the machinery of global co-operation could well fail. The World Trade Organisation would not be worthy of the name. The UN would fall into disuse. Countless treaties and conventions would be undermined. Although each one stands alone, together they form a system that binds America to its allies and projects its power across the world. Because habits of co-operation that were decades in the making cannot easily be put back together again, the harm would be lasting. In the spiral of distrust and recrimination, countries that are dissatisfied with the world will be tempted to change it—if necessary by force.

没有美国人民的踊跃支持和参与，全球合作机制将土崩瓦解。世界贸易组织将会名不副实。联合国将被弃之不用。不计其数的条约和惯例将遭受不利影响。尽管每个合约都是独立存在的，但是他们一起构成了一个体系，将美国及其盟国捆绑在一起，将美国的影响力辐射到全世界。合作的习惯是花了几十年时间才慢慢形成的，因此不可能说恢复就能立刻恢复，所以，这种危害的影响必定深远。在相互猜忌和揭短的混战中，那些对世界感到不满的国家将试图改变这一切，如有必要，将不惜动用武力。

What to do? The first task is to limit the damage. There is little point in cutting Mr Trump off. Moderate Republicans and America’s allies need to tell him why Mr Bannon and his co-ideologues are wrong. Even in the narrowest sense of American self-interest, their appetite fo 50 29339 50 14748 0 0 5397 0 0:00:05 0:00:02 0:00:03 5396r bilateralism is misguided, not least because the economic harm from the complexity and contradictions of a web of bilateral relations would outweigh any gains to be won from tougher negotiations. Mr Trump also needs to be persuaded that alliances are America’s greatest source of power. Its unique network plays as large a role as its economy and its military might in making it the global superpower. Alliances help raise it above its regional rivals—China in East Asia, Russia in eastern Europe, Iran in the Middle East. If Mr Trump truly wants to put America First, his priority should be strengthening ties, not treating allies with contempt.

该怎么办？第一件事就是止损。搞垮特朗普并不解决问题。中庸的共和党人和美国盟友需要告诉他，为什么巴农及其支持者的想法是错误的。即便只从美国自身利益出发，他们对于双边主义的追求也是被误导的，更何况由双边关系构成的网络的复杂性与矛盾性将对经济造成危害，任何通过强硬谈判而赢得的利益与之相比都得不偿失。此外，还需要劝诫特朗普，结盟是美国最重要的实力来源。 在成为全球超级大国之路上，美国独一无二的关系网所发挥的重要作用，将和其经济与军事实力的作用不相上下。结盟帮助美国从区域对手中脱颖而出，比如东亚的中国，东欧的俄罗斯，还有中东的伊朗。如果特朗普真心想把美国的利益放在首位，那么，他的当务之急应该是巩固关系，而非对盟国不屑一顾。

And if this advice is ignored? America’s allies must strive to preserve multilateral institutions for the day after Mr Trump, by bolstering their finances and limiting the strife within them. And they must plan for a world without American leadership. If anyone is tempted to look to China to take on the mantle, it is not ready, even if that were desirable. Europe will no longer have the luxury of underfunding NATO and undercutting the EU’s foreign service—the closest it has to a State Department. Brazil, the regional power, must be prepared to help lead Latin America. In the Middle East fractious Arab states will together have to find a formula for living at peace with Iran.

可要是特朗普一意孤行呢？在特朗普就任之后，美国的盟友们必定会通过财政和遏制内部纷争等方式，极力维护多边机制。他们还必须在美国领导缺位时，对世界做好打算。或许有人会怂恿中国接过指挥棒，只可惜中国心有余而力不足。欧洲不再有类似美国国务院的那些特权，可以拒绝对北约全额拨款，或贱卖欧盟的对外服务了。巴西作为区域大国，必须做好准备，为引领拉美发展做出贡献。在中东地区，爆脾气的阿拉伯国家需要坐下来，共商与伊朗和平共处的妙计。

A web of bilateralism and a jerry-rigged regionalism are palpably worse for America than the world Mr Trump inherited. It is not too late for him to conclude how much worse, to ditch his bomb-throwers and switch course. The world should hope for that outcome. But it must prepare for trouble.

比起特朗普接手的世界，铺天盖地的双边主义与赶鸭子上架的区域主义要糟糕得更多，这一点妇孺皆知。现在，特朗普要想不再胡来，及时收手，鸣金收兵，弃暗投明，还不算太晚。希望尚存，全世界应该拭目以待。但是，防乱之筹不可无。