阿富汗悲剧是历史重演 | 金融时报
而我每次都停下来陪陪他们，抚摸其脸庞默默相告：别说了，后来发生的事我都已经知道了，是你们自己的选择。
History repeats itself in the tragedy of Afghanistan ↓
阿富汗悲剧是历史重演
With stunning speed, the Taliban’s lightning onslaught across Afghanistan reached the capital Kabul itself. By late Sunday, President Ashraf Ghani was said to have left the country. Pictures of helicopters lifting off from the US embassy recalled the humiliating fall of Saigon in 1975 — something President Joe Biden dismissed just last month as implausible. This is a tragedy for the people of the country, and a betrayal of the thousands of US and allied troops — and more than 120,000 Afghans — who died in 20 years of war. It is a grave setback, too, for the credibility of the US and of the community of democracies Biden hoped to cement. ↓
塔利班以惊人速度在阿富汗全国各地发起的凌厉攻势已经触及首都喀布尔。上周日晚，阿富汗总统阿什拉夫-加尼(Ashraf Ghani)据说已离开这个国家。直升飞机在美国驻阿富汗大使馆起飞的景象让人想起1975年西贡沦陷的羞辱——就在上月，美国总统乔-拜登(Joe Biden)还满不在乎地认为这种情况是不可能发生的。这是阿富汗人民的悲剧，也是对在20年战争中丧生的数千名美国及其盟国官兵以及逾12万阿富汗平民的背叛。对美国——以及拜登希望巩固的民主国家阵营——的可信度来说，这也是一个极其严重的挫折。
It was former president Donald Trump who announced US troops would leave by 2021 provided the Taliban met the terms of a peace accord signed last year. But going ahead with the pullout was Biden’s choice. The domestic political cost is still likely to be low. Polls show Americans are as weary today of the “forever wars” as they were under Trump. Preserving the messy military stalemate into which Afghanistan had settled was a hard political sell. In terms of America’s global standing, however, the miscalculation will haunt the rest of the Biden presidency. ↓
是上一任美国总统唐纳德-特朗普(Donald Trump)宣布美军将在2021年撤离的——前提是塔利班履行去年签署的和平协议中的承诺。但推进撤军计划是拜登的选择。这一选择可能仍然不会在美国国内造成多少政治代价。民意调查显示，就像在特朗普主政期间一样，今天的美国人对“没完没了的战争”同样感到厌倦。维持阿富汗此前陷入的混乱的军事僵局，在政治上很难说服美国民众买账。然而，就美国的全球地位而言，这一误判将困扰拜登余下的总统任期。
Biden might still have been able to argue for much reduced US forces — which since 2015 had also suffered much reduced casualties — to remain as a backstop to the Afghan military, just as the US retained a long-term presence in Germany and South Korea. Instead, either the White House went ahead with the pullout regardless of intelligence warnings of what would follow, or the speed of the offensive was indeed unforeseen — a startling lack of insight in a country where America has had a ground presence for two decades. ↓
拜登本来仍然可以主张留下一支兵力大幅削减的美军（自2015年以来，美军伤亡人数也已大幅减少），作为阿富汗军队的后盾，就像美国在德国和韩国保持长期驻军一样。然而，要么是白宫未理会有关接下来会发生什么的情报警告，执意推进撤军计划，要么是美方的确没有预料到塔利班挺进的速度——对一个美国驻军已有20年的国家如此缺乏前见之明是令人愕然的。
Yet the Afghan collapse reflects not just a military and intelligence failure but the failure in 20 years to have built a more functional state. The initial goal of the post-9/11 intervention was to prevent al-Qaeda from using the country as a base for further attacks. Though President George W Bush invoked the Marshall Plan when pledging to reconstruct Afghanistan in 2002, and the US has now spent a trillion dollars on its campaign, it was never prepared to commit sufficient resources for the kind of nation-building it undertook after the second world war. It did devote time and money to training and equipping the military. But Afghan forces’ strategy to contain the Taliban depended on US backing, especially air support. ↓
然而，阿富汗的崩溃不仅反映了军事和情报方面的失败，也反映了20年未将阿富汗建成一个运作良好的国家的失败。“9-11”后干预的最初目标是防止基地组织(al-Qaeda)利用阿富汗作为进一步袭击的大本营。尽管时任美国总统小布什(George W Bush)在2002年承诺重建阿富汗时提到了马歇尔计划(Marshall Plan)，美国迄今也已为这一事业支出1万亿美元，但它从未准备投入足够资源进行二战后的那种国家建设。美国确实投入了时间和金钱来训练和装备阿富汗军队。但阿军遏制塔利班的战略有赖于美国的支持，尤其是空中支援。
Successive Afghan governments bear responsibility too. Corruption and dysfunctional management badly hampered efforts at state-building. Afghan leaders also declined to reach accords with the Taliban, notably in 2011-12, when it was weaker and its demands relatively limited. ↓
历届阿富汗政府也负有责任。腐败和不良治理严重阻碍了国家建设的努力。阿富汗领导人也拒绝与塔利班达成协议，特别是在塔利班实力较弱、诉求相对有限的2011至2012年。
Some longtime Afghanistan watchers now suggest a restoration of Taliban rule, bloody and repressive as it would be, might be less disastrous than the alternative of a slide into all-out civil war. Not just Afghanistan’s long-suffering population, however, but the US and its allies will have to live with the consequences. A wave of refugees fleeing Afghanistan has already started. The country is at risk of becoming, once again, a base for jihadis. ↓
长期观察阿富汗事务的一些人士现在提出，恢复塔利班的统治——尽管它会是血腥和高压的——相比全面内战可能仍是更小的灾难。然而，不仅是阿富汗长期受苦受难的民众，美国及其盟国也将不得不承受后果。一波逃离阿富汗的难民潮已经开始。该国有可能再次成为圣战分子的基地。
塔利班是阿富汗人民自己的选择
下文来自汐颜视界 作者大风如刀
塔利班的旗帜飘扬在喀布尔总统府的上空，如同解放军的旗帜飘扬在南京总统府的上空一样，被宣布为人民的胜利。现任总统仓皇出逃，令老夫想起成都凤凰山机场当年的那一幕，这也是历史的选择。
2019年春节期间，老夫又一次来到位于长江边的李庄古镇，探访老朋友。这几乎是每年返乡省亲的必选项，而最令我牵挂的，是一对夫妻，他们天天都站在门口等候，无论酷暑严寒还是刮风下雨。
他们已站成雕像，眼神里充满了迷茫和忧伤，总似乎想倾诉什么。而我每次都停下来陪陪他们，抚摸其脸庞默默相告：别说了，后来发生的事我都已经知道了，是你们自己的选择。
这是梁思成和林徽因的故居，远离古镇的核心景区，十分寂寞。他们的父亲，我也认识，从小区开车到新会的梁启超故居，一个小时足够。
历史总有惊人的相似，塔利班的胜利令人如此熟悉。美国人用20年时间，无法改变这个国家，正如当年烂泥巴糊不上墙的国民党F动派，最终被历史所抛弃。
但是，人民也必须要为自己的选择买单。而这个过程可能很漫长，需要分期付款，抵押按揭，还得接受利率波动和物价上涨，甚至几代人接力，最后可能依然没有产权......
剧本是现成的，不需要升级版本，换一批演员就行。
塔利班政府值得期待，阿富汗人民有福了。下一步为了巩固新生的政Q，防止阶级敌人疯狂反扑，企图恢复失去的天堂，必将开始大规模su反和镇F运动，清除残渣余孽。
以公开示蔠的方式实施的鞭邢、石邢、绞邢甚至坎头，将会成为必要的常态化专政手段，用以震慑di人，鼓舞人心，保卫阿富汗人民的幸福生活。
人xue馒头，或将成为时尚美食。
不知为何，塔利班的胜利，阿富汗人民的解放，让老夫产生如此稀奇古怪的联想，完全是风马牛不相及，其必然的逻辑在哪里？
脑海里再次浮现出那对夫妻的眼神，同时也想到了他们的父亲。饮冰室主人任公先生，虽曾康梁一体却始终保持清醒独立，可惜阳寿不长，仅56岁就撒手人寰。
突发奇想，倘若梁启超多活20年，或许能够帮梁思成和林徽因两口子做出另外的选择……
2021-08-16
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