斯蒂格利茨：美国将失去贸易战
约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨，美国经济学家，2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主，美国哥伦比亚大学教授，其成果使IPCC获得2007年诺贝尔和平奖。1993年至1997年，美国总统经济问委员会主席，1997年至1999年任世界银行资深副行长兼首席经济学家。2011至2014年，任国际经济学协会主席。
作者：约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨
时间：2018.7.30
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-loses-trade-war-with-china-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2018-07
The US is at Risk of Losing
a Trade War with China
What was at first a trade skirmish – with US President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum – appears to be quickly morphing into a full-scale trade war with China. If the truce agreed by Europe and the US holds, the US will be doing battle mainly with China, rather than the world (of course, the trade conflict with Canada and Mexico will continue to simmer, given US demands that neither country can or should accept).
贸易冲突（美国总统唐纳德•特朗普对钢铁和铝征收关税）似乎很快演变成与中国的全面贸易战。如果欧洲和美国达成停火协议，美国将主要与中国作战，而不是与全世界作战(当然，美国与加拿大和墨西哥的贸易冲突将继续发酵，因为美国提出了两国都不能或应该接受的要求)。
Beyond the true, but by now platitudinous, assertion that everyone will lose, what can we say about the possible outcomes of Trump’s trade war? First, macroeconomics always prevails: if the United States’ domestic investment continues to exceed its savings, it will have to import capital and have a large trade deficit. Worse, because of the tax cuts enacted at the end of last year, the US fiscal deficit is reaching new records – recently projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2020 – which means that the trade deficit almost surely will increase, whatever the outcome of the trade war. The only way that won’t happen is if Trump leads the US into a recession, with incomes declining so much that investment and imports plummet.
除了已经耳熟能详的“所有人都将蒙受损失”的事实，关于特朗普的贸易战的可能结果我们还能说些什么呢？首先，宏观经济学总是有效的：如果美国国内投资继续超过储蓄，它将不得不扩大进口并出现巨额贸易逆差。更糟糕的是，由于去年年底实施的减税措施，美国财政赤字正达到新的纪录（最近预计到2020年将超过1万亿美元）这意味着无论贸易战的结果如何，贸易赤字几乎肯定会增加。避免这一结果发生的唯一途径是，特朗普将美国带入衰退，收入大幅下降，导致投资和进口大幅下降。
The “best” outcome of Trump’s narrow focus on the trade deficit with China would be improvement in the bilateral balance, matched by an increase of an equal amount in the deficit with some other country (or countries). The US might sell more natural gas to China and buy fewer washing machines; but it will sell less natural gas to other countries and buy washing machines or something else from Thailand or another country that has avoided the irascible Trump’s wrath. But, because the US interfered with the market, it will be paying more for its imports and getting less for its exports than otherwise would have been the case. In short, the best outcome means that the US will be worse off than it is today.
特朗普对对华贸易逆差的狭隘关注的“最佳”结果，将是双边平衡的改善，同时增加同等数量的与其他一些国家(或国家)的贸易逆差。美国可能会向中国出售更多的天然气，购买更少的洗衣机；但美国对其他国家的天然气出口将减少，并从泰国或其他免于招致特朗普愤怒的国家购买洗衣机或其他产品。但由于美国干预了市场，它将为进口支付更多的钱，而出口获得的钱将比不干预时来的少。简言之，贸易战最好的结果意味着，美国的境况将比今天更糟。
The US has a problem, but it’s not with China. It’s at home: America has been saving too little. Trump, like so many of his compatriots, is immensely shortsighted. If he had a whit of understanding of economics and a long-term vision, he would have done what he could to increase national savings. That would have reduced the multilateral trade deficit.
美国有一个问题，但不在中国而在国内：美国的储蓄率太低。特朗普和他的许多同胞一样目光短浅。如果他对经济学有深刻的理解和长远的眼光，他会尽其所能增加国民储蓄。这将减少多边贸易逆差。
There are obvious quick fixes: China could buy more American oil and then sell it on to others. This would not make an iota of difference, beyond perhaps a slight increase in transaction costs. But Trump could trumpet that he had eliminated the bilateral trade deficit.
有一个显而易见的权宜之计：中国可以购买更多的美国石油，然后再卖给其他国家。除了交易成本的小幅上升之外，这不会产生太大的影响。但特朗普可以宣称他已经消除了双边贸易逆差。
In fact, significantly reducing the bilateral trade deficit in a meaningful way will prove difficult. As demand for Chinese goods decreases, the renminbi’s exchange rate will weaken – even without any government intervention. This will partly offset the effect of US tariffs; at the same time, it will increase China’s competitiveness with other countries—and this will be true even if China doesn’t use other instruments in its possession, like wage and price controls, or push strongly for productivity increases. China’s overall trade balance, like that of the US, is determined by its macroeconomics.
大幅减少双边贸易逆差从实际上看将是困难的。随着对中国商品需求的下降，即使没有政府的干预，人民币汇率将会走软，这将在一定程度上抵消美国关税的影响;与此同时，它将提高中国在其他国家的竞争力，即使中国不使用其他手段（比如控制工资和价格，或者大力推动生产力增长）这也会发挥作用的。与美国一样，中国的总体贸易平衡是由宏观经济决定的。
If China intervenes more actively and retaliates more aggressively, the change in the US-China trade balance could be even smaller. The relative pain each will inflict on the other is difficult to ascertain. China has more control of its economy, and has wanted to shift toward a growth model based on domestic demand rather than investment and exports. The US is simply helping China do what it has already been trying to do. On the other hand, US actions come at a time when China is trying to manage excess leverage and excess capacity; at least in some sectors, the US will make these tasks all the more difficult.
如果中国更积极地干预或是报复，美中贸易平衡的变化可能会更小。每个人对另一个人造成的相对痛苦是很难确定的。中国对经济拥有更大的控制权，并希望转向基于内需、而非投资和出口的增长模式。美国只是在帮助中国做已经在做的事情。而在美国采取行动之际，中国正试图控制过度杠杆和产能过剩；至少在某些领域，美国将使这些任务变得更加困难。
This much is clear: if Trump’s objective is to stop China from pursuing its “Made in China 2025” policy – adopted in 2015 to further its 40-year goal of narrowing the income gap between China and the advanced countries – he will almost surely fail. On the contrary, Trump’s actions will only strengthen Chinese leaders’ resolve to boost innovation and achieve technological supremacy, as they realize that they can’t rely on others, and that the US is actively hostile.
显而易见的是:如果特朗普的目标是阻止中国实施2015年通过的“中国制造2025”，他几乎肯定会失败。相反特朗普的行为只会增强中国领导人推动创新、实现技术霸权的决心，因为他们意识到自己不能依靠别人，美国是充满敌意的。
If a country enters a war, trade or otherwise, it should be sure that good generals – with clearly defined objectives, a viable strategy, and popular support – are in charge. It is here that the differences between China and the US appear so great. No country could have a more unqualified economic team than Trump’s, and a majority of Americans are not behind the trade war.
如果一个国家陷入贸易战或是其他什么战争，它应该保证指挥战争的将帅是卓越的（有明确的目标、可行的战略和民众的支持）。在这一点上中美之间的差异显得如此之大。没有哪个国家能比特朗普的经济团队更不合格，而大多数美国人都不支持这场贸易战。
Public support will wane even further as Americans realize that they lose doubly from this war: jobs will disappear, not only because of China’s retaliatory measures, but also because US tariffs increase the price of US exports and make them less competitive; and the prices of the goods they buy will rise. This may force the dollar’s exchange rate to fall, increasing inflation in the US even more – giving rise to still more opposition. The Fed is likely then to raise interest rates, leading to weaker investment and growth and more unemployment.
随着美国人意识到他们在这场战争中遭受的双重损失，公众支持将进一步减弱：就业岗位将消失，这不仅是因为中国的报复性措施，还因为美国的关税提高了美国出口产品的价格，降低了它们的竞争力；他们购买的商品的价格也会上涨。这可能会迫使美元汇率下跌，进一步推高美国的通胀，从而引发更多反对声音。届时美联储可能会加息，导致投资和增长放缓，失业率上升。
Trump has shown how he responds when his lies are exposed or his policies are failing: he doubles down. China has repeatedly offered face-saving ways for Trump to leave the battlefield and declare victory. But he refuses to take them up. Perhaps hope can be found in three of his other traits: his focus on appearance over substance, his unpredictability, and his love of “big man” politics. Perhaps in a grand meeting with President Xi Jinping, he can declare the problem solved, with some minor adjustments of tariffs here and there, and some new gesture toward market opening that China had already planned to announce, and everyone can go home happy.
特朗普已经表明，当他的谎言被揭露或他的政策失败时他会如何应对：他会加倍反击。中国一再给特朗普台阶下，让他离开战场宣布胜利，但他拒绝接受。或许这个机会可以从他的另外三个特点中找到：注重外表而非实质；不可预测性；对“大人物”政治的热爱。或许在与中国国家领导人的一次大型会议上，他可以宣布问题已经得到解决，对关税进行一些随随便便的小调整，在中国已经计划宣布的市场开放方面做出一些新的姿态，每个人都可以愉快地回家。
In this scenario, Trump will have “solved,” imperfectly, a problem that he created. But the world following his foolish trade war will still be different: more uncertain, less confident in the international rule of law, and with harder borders. Trump has changed the world, permanently, for the worse. Even with the best possible outcomes, the only winner is Trump – with his outsize ego pumped up just a little more.
于是乎，特朗普不完美地“解决”了自己制造的一个问题。但他愚蠢的贸易战过后的世界将是另一番景象：更加不确定，对国际法治缺乏信心，壁垒更加严苛。特朗普彻底改变了世界，让世界变得更糟。即使有最好的可能结果，唯一的赢家还是特朗普——他的自负又膨胀了一点点。
（完）