【热点】伊朗会任由美国鱼肉宰割吗？
2018年8月7日，国家利益杂志发表评论文章《Can Iran Wait out Trump's Pressure Campaign?》，文中详细阐述了美国对伊朗问题的态度转变，尤其是特朗普政府对伊施压的三项具体措施。现将部分内容编译如下，本文仅供学术交流，不用于商业用途，版权归原作者所有，观点不代表本机构立场。
伊朗会任由美国鱼肉宰割吗？
只有时间才能证明德黑兰是否会屈服于华盛顿的要求。
作者：美国外交政策委员会高级研究员劳伦斯·哈斯（Lawrence J. Haas）
发布时间：2018年8月7日
编译：学术plus
原载：https://nationalinterest.org
U.S. foreign policy toward Iran is approaching a “back to the future” moment, with the Trump White House resurrecting the strategy pursued by President George W. Bush (and, for a while, President Barack Obama) of pressuring Iran economically into abandoning its nuclear pursuits.
美国对伊朗的外交政策正在接近“回到未来”的时刻，特朗普白宫恢复乔治·W·布什总统（以及一段时间以来，总统巴拉克·奥巴马）所采取的战略，迫使伊朗在经济上放弃核武器。
The question now is whether President Trump, or if necessary a successor, will push this pressure campaign—which the Administration is supplementing with outreach to Iran’s people and more security cooperation with its regional adversaries—to its conclusion.
现在的问题是，特朗普总统，是否会在伊朗问题上继续施压？
If so, the regime in Tehran, which is presiding over an increasingly troubled economy and restive populace, may reach a point where it must choose between its nuclear program and its continued rule.
如果美国继续向伊朗施压，德黑兰的政权可能面临在核计划和其政权统治之间作出抉择，并逐渐陷入经济和社会的动荡。
That’s what Secretary of State Mike Pompeo predicted in May when, after Trump announced that Washington would withdraw from the global nuclear agreement with Iran. Pompeo said that new U.S. sanctions would force Tehran to make a choice: “fight to keep its economy off life support at home or squander precious wealth on fights abroad.”
就在特朗普宣布华盛顿将退出与伊朗的全球核协议之后，国务卿迈克庞培在5月预测到了这一点。庞培说，新的美国制裁将迫使德黑兰做出选择：“争取在国内维持其经济生活支持或在国外打架上浪费宝贵财富。”
That Washington is shifting course on a major challenge of foreign policy, with a President upending the approach of his predecessor, is hardly unprecedented. For more than half a century, U.S. policy toward the Cold War shifted from containing the Soviets to engaging in détente to seeking an end to Soviet rule. U.S. human rights policy shifted just as dramatically, with some Presidents denouncing the abuses of allies and adversaries alike and others downplaying them in the interest of realpolitik.
华盛顿正在改变对外政策的重大挑战，特朗普颠覆其前任的做法，这几乎是前所未有的。半个多世纪以来，美国对冷战的政策从遏制苏维埃转向缓和，寻求结束苏维埃统治。美国的人权政策也发生了巨大变化，一些总统谴责盟友和敌人的滥用，而其他总统则为了现实政治的利益而忽视他们。
The U.S. shift on Iran is particularly dramatic, however. Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between the P5+1 (the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France, and Germany) and Iran. Afterward, Trump revived the very approach that Obama (and Bush before him) pursued before that deal—to use economic pressure to force Tehran to make the choice that Pompeo delineated. In launching a new campaign of economic pressure, however, Trump is broadening the terms of the debate. Rather than focus narrowly on the nuclear program, he’s seeking to change Tehran’s behavior more broadly.
然而，美国对伊朗的转变特别引人注目。特朗普退出了2015年P5+1（美国，中国，俄罗斯，英国，法国和德国）与伊朗之间的核协议。之后，特朗普恢复了奥巴马（以及布什在他之前）在该交易之前所采取的做法，即：利用经济压力迫使德黑兰做出庞培描述的选择。然而，在发起新的经济施压时，特朗普正在扩大辩论的条件。他没有把重点放在核计划上，而是试图改变德黑兰的行为。
When Trump pulled the United States out of the deal, the President and his team not only criticized its time-limited restrictions, weak inspections regime, up-front sanctions relief, and other problems. They also derided its narrow focus and broadened the impediments to improved U.S.-Iranian relations to include Iran’s ballistic missile program, terror sponsorship, regional mischief, and human rights abuses.
当特朗普将美国撤出协议时，总统及其团队不仅批评其时间有限的限制，弱检查制度，前期制裁救济等其他问题。他们还嘲笑其狭隘的焦点，并使得美伊关系更加恶化，包括伊朗的弹道导弹计划，恐怖主义赞助，地区恶作剧和侵犯人权。
Now, the Administration is pursuing a strategy of at least three parts:
现在，政府正在推行至少三个部分的战略：
First, economic pressure : Washington will begin re-imposing sanctions in early August, which will force major global business interests to decide whether to invest in Iran or retain access to the U.S. financial system.Tehran's efforts to blunt the impact of the coming sanctions doesn't see to be working. For instance, the State Department has reported that more than fifty global firms already announced plans to leave Iran. In addition, the rial has hitrecord lows against the dollar in recent days and lost half its value since April.Nevertheless, for the long-suffering Iranian people, times could get even worse. Iranian officials are reportedly discussing whether to reimpose the food rationing system in place during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
首先，经济压力：华盛顿将在8月初开始重新实施制裁，这将迫使全球主要商业利益集团决定是否投资伊朗或保留对美国金融体系的准入。德黑兰并无力抗拒美国这一制裁。例如，国务院报告说，已有超过50家全球公司宣布计划离开伊朗。此外，最近几天里亚尔兑美元汇率创下历史新低，并且自4月以来已经下跌了一半。然而，对于长期遭受苦难的伊朗人民来说，时代可能会变得更糟。据报道，伊朗官员正在讨论是否在1980年代的伊朗 - 伊拉克战争期间重新实施粮食配给制度。
Second, outreach : Seeking a nuclear deal, Obama was careful not to anger the regime by embracing Iran’s population. Trump’s team, however, sees such engagement as another anti-regime pressure point.“While it is ultimately up to the Iranian people to determine the direction of their country,” Pompeo said in late July, “the United States, in the spirit of our own freedoms, will support the long-ignored voice of the Iranian people.”
第二，外展：寻求核协议，奥巴马的政策是不要通过接纳伊朗的人口来激怒政权。然而，特朗普的团队认为这种接触是另一个反政权的压力点。“尽管最终由伊朗人民决定他们国家的方向，” 庞培在7月底说，“美国本着自己的自由精神，将支持长期被忽视的伊朗人民的声音。 ”
Third, enhanced security : Washington is nourishing closer ties to Iran’s regional adversaries. Talks are underway to create an “ Arab NATO ,” tentatively called the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), which would include Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and other states and which the United States would support.
第三，加强安全：华盛顿正在加强与伊朗地区对手的联系。正在进行谈判以建立一个“ 阿拉伯北约”，暂时称为中东战略联盟（MESA），其中包括沙特阿拉伯，约旦，埃及和其他国家，美国将支持这些联盟。
As NATO proved a key tool in containing the Soviets during the Cold War, MESA would help contain Iran, which directly or through proxies largely controls the governments of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. A National Security Council spokesperson called the alliance “a bulwark against Iranian aggression, terrorism, [and] extremism” that will “bring stability to the Middle East.”
由于北约在冷战期间是遏制苏联的关键工具，因此MESA将帮助遏制伊朗，今儿控制叙利亚，伊拉克，黎巴嫩以及也门政府。国家安全委员会发言人称该联盟是“反对伊朗侵略，恐怖主义和[极端主义]的堡垒，将”为中东带来稳定“。
If implemented effectively, this three-part strategy could leave Tehran weaker at home and more constrained abroad. The regime, then, will face the challenge of attempting to ride out the pressure campaign until the next inevitable change in U.S. foreign-policy.
如果得到有效实施，这个由三部分组成的战略可能会更加削弱德黑兰在国内外的力量。因此，该政权将面临试图摆脱美国的施压直到美国再次改变其外交政策。
Image: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani addresses the 68th United Nations General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, September 24, 2013. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid (UNITED STATES - Tags: POLITICS)
图片： 伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼于2013年9月24日在纽约联合国总部向第68届联合国大会发表讲话。路透社/布兰登麦克德米德（美国 - 标签：政治）
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