【4.11精读】世界经济的过去式和将来时 World economy：Past and future tense

【原文】

World economy：Past and future tense

The world economy in 2015 will carry troubling echoes of the late 1990s

A FINANCIAL crash in Russia; falling oil prices and a strong dollar; a new goldrush in Silicon Valley and a resurgent American economy; weakness in Germanyand Japan; tumbling currencies in emerging markets from Brazil to Indonesia; an embattled Democrat in the White House. Is that aforecast of the world in 2015 or a portrait of the late 1990s?

Recent economic history has been so dominated by the credit crunch of 2008-09 that it is easy to forget what happened inthe decades before. But looking back 15 years or so is instructive有启发意义的—in terms of bothwhat to do and what to avoid.

Then, asnow, the United States was in the vanguard of a disruptive颠覆性的 digital revolution.The advent of the internet spawned a burst of innovation and euphoria，about America’s prospects. By 1999 GDPwas rising by more than 4% a year, almost twice the rich-country average.Unemployment fell to 4%, a 30-year low. Foreign investors piled in, boosting both the dollarand share prices股价. The S&P 500 index rose to almost 30 times earnings; tech stocks went wild.

The optimism in America stood in stark contrast to gloom elsewhere, as itdoes today. Japan’s economy had slipped into deflation in 1997. Germanywas “the sick man of Europe”, its firms held back by rigid labor markets and other high costs.Emerging markets, having soared ahead曾高速领先发展, were in crisis: between1997 and 1999 countries from Thailand to Brazil saw their currencies crash asforeign capital fled and dollar-denominated debts proved unpayable.

Eventually,America ran into trouble too. The tech-stock bubble burst in early 2000,prompting a broader share price slump. Business investment, particularly intechnology, sank; and as share prices fell, consumers cut back. By early 2001 America, along with mostof the rich world, had slipped into recession, albeit（=although） a mild one.

America the powerful壮哉美国

Inevitablytheparallels比较 are not perfect. The biggest difference is China, a bit-part player in 1999 and now theworld’s second-biggest economy, contributing disproportionately to global growth. But there are three trends at work that destabilized the world economy thenand could do the same now.

The firstis the gap between America, where growth is accelerating, and almost everywhereelse, where it is slowing. In the late 1990s Larry Summers, then the US deputytreasury secretary, warned that the world economy was “flying on one engine”.For 2015 The Economist’s panel offorecasters expects 3% growth in America, compared with 1.1% in Japan and theeuro area. China’s growth rate may fall to around 7%.

Americanscan comfort themselves that, as in the late 1990s, the optimism gap is partially warranted得以保证的. Jobs are being created in their countryfaster than at any time since 1999, cheap petrol has buoyed consumer spendingand business investment has picked up回暖. But the news is not all good: cheaper oil could tip plenty of America’sshale producers intobankruptcy in 2015, while a stronger dollar and weakness abroad will hurtexporters—just as they did 15 years ago. Britain, the other Anglosphere champion, may also be clobbered by the euro zone’s woes.

The secondworrying parallel with与……相似 the late 1990s is the dismal令人沮丧的 outlook for the rich world’s two otherbig economies. Germany’s growth rate has tumbled to around 1% and there is adeeper malaise痼疾 caused by years of under-investment, adisastrous energy policy and a government that is too obsessed by its fiscaltargets to spend money and too frightened of its voters to push through使被通过 the sort of structural reforms thatGerhard Schröder implemented in 2003. Meanwhile Japan has repeated the error itmade in 1997—thwarting阻挠 its escape from stagnation with apremature rise in consumption tax.

The thirdecho of the 1990s is the danger in emerging markets. Back then the problem wasfixed exchange rates and hefty巨大的 foreign debt. Now thedebts are lower, the exchange rates float and most governments have built up reserves建立储备. Still, there are growing signs oftrouble, especially in Russia. But other commodity exporters also lookvulnerable, especially in Africa. Oil accounts for 95% of Nigeria’s exports and75% of its government revenue. Ghana has already gone to the IMF for support.In other countries the danger lies in the corporate sector. ManyBrazilian firms are heavily indebted in dollars. A rash of corporate defaults may prove less spectacular than Asia’ssovereign-debt crises in the 1990s, but they will make investors nervous and pushup the dollar.

Fear the hangover遗留影响

Add allthis upand 2015 seems likely to be bumpy崎岖难行. Bears will bet that asurging dollar coupled with euro-zone torpor萎靡 and a few emerging-market crises will eventually prompt adownturn in America. On the plus side在利好的一面, stockmarkets do not lookas frothy泡沫 as they did in the 1990s: theprice/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 18, not far above its historicalaverage. Although many big tech firms are investing recklessly, most havedecent balance-sheets. And the global financial system is less leveraged andhence less vulnerable to contagion. In 1998 Russia’s default felled LTCM, a big American hedge fund对冲基金. Such knock-on effects are less likely today.

But if theworld economy does stumble, restoring stability will be harder this time roundbecause policymakers have so little room for maneuver. Back in 1999 the Federal Reserve’spolicy rate was around 5%, leaving plenty of scope for cutting when the economyslowed. Nowadays interest rates all over the rich world are close to zero.

Thepolitical scene is also different, and not in a good way. At the end of the1990s most people in the rich world had enjoyed the fruits of the boom: medianAmerican wages rose by 7.7% in real terms in 1995-2000. Since 2007, bycontrast, they have been flat in America, and have fallen in Britain and muchof the euro zone. All over the rich world voters are already grumpy烦躁不耐 with their governments, as pollingnumbers and their willingness to vote for protest parties show. If they aresqueezed next year discontent will turn to anger. The economics of 2015 maylook similar to the late 1990s, but the politics will probably be rather worse.

【笔记】

【主动产出笔记】

表示↑的词汇：surge,rise, go wild, soar, accelerate, grow, pick up

表示↓的词汇：fall,slip into, cut back, slow, tumble, stumble

表示使↑的词汇：boost,buoy, push up

表示使↓的词汇：holdback, be clobbered by, squeeze

【思维导图】

【基础笔记】

carry troublingechoes of：重现……的情况

原句：Theworld economy in 2015 will carry troubling echoes of the late 1990s.

造句练习：

Embattled:被敌人围困的；Ifyou describe a person, group, or organization as embattled, you mean that theyare having a lot of problems or difficulties.

原句：an embattled Democrat in the White House.

造句练习：the embattled party leader

in the vanguard of：（革命或研究的）前沿，先驱；If someone is inthe vanguard of something such as a revolution or an area of research, they areinvolved in the most advanced part of it.

原句：Then,as now, the United States was in the vanguard of a disruptive digitalrevolution.

例句：therole of the party as the political vanguard.

造句练习：TheU.K. was in the vanguard of Industrial Revolution.

Spawn: ifsomething spawns something else, it causes it to happen or to be created.

原句：Theadvent of the internet spawned a burst of innovation and euphoria aboutAmerica’s prospects.

造句练习：Theimplementation of reform and opening-up policy since 1979 spawned a lot ofprivate businesses.

Pile in: toenter a place in large numbers, especially in a way that is not organized.

原句：Foreigninvestors piled in, boosting both the dollar and share prices.

例句：Theyopened the doors, and all the fifteen of us piled in.

造句练习：Themoment the door of the train opened, passengers piled in quickly.

Stand incontrast: to be very different from something else.

原句：Theoptimism in America stood in stark contrast to gloom elsewhere, as it doestoday.

例句：Herviews stand in stark contrast to those of her colleagues.

造句练习：Therealities stand in stark contrast to what we have expected.

Slip into: togradually start to be in a bad state or situation.

原句：Japan’seconomy had slipped into deflation in 1997.

例句：Shefelt herself fell into unconsciousness.

造句练习：Theworld economy is slipping into recession.

Be held back: 受到……掣肘

原句：itsfirms held back by rigid labor markets

例句：Stagnationin home sales is holding back economic recovery.

造句练习：

cut back:减少，削减，缩减

原句：asshare prices fell, consumers cut back.

例句：Thegovernment has cut back on defense spending.

造句练习：Weare considering cutting back some unnecessary expenditure.

Inevitably theparallels are not perfect：此处parallel为“比较”

a bit-partplayer：bit-part为“电影、戏剧中的小角色”

be clobbered by:受到沉重打击；Ifa person or a company is clobbered by something, they are very badly affectedby it.

原句：Britain,the other Anglosphere champion, may also be clobbered by the euro zone’s woes.

例句：Theconstruction industry is clobbered by recession.

造句练习：Thetraditional manufacturing industry is clobbered by the new policy.

Fear the hangover:心有余悸。hangover此处意为遗留影响、遗留观念，也有宿醉的意思。

【表达积累】

credit crunch信贷紧缩

tech stocks wentwild科技股疯狂飙升

pick up回暖

Anglosphere盎格鲁势力范围

push through使被通过

build upreserves建立储备

On the plus side在利好的一面

stockmarkets donot look as frothy as they did in the 1990s股市表面的泡沫看似没有90年代的多

less vulnerableto contagion不那么易于传染

hedge fund对冲基金

knock-on effects连锁反应

【译文】

世界经济的过去式和将来时

2015年，世界经济将呈现与上世纪90年代末相似的困境

俄罗斯金融崩盘；国际油价下挫，美元坚挺；硅谷出现新的淘金热，美国经济复苏；德国和日本疲软；从巴西到印度尼西亚的新兴市场的货币大幅贬值；民主党在白宫四面楚歌。这是对2015年世界经济的预测，还是对上世纪90年代末的景象描绘？

2008、2009年的信贷紧缩一直主导着近期经济，会遗忘几十年前发生的事情在所难免。然而，回望15年前的经济会有启发意义的——不论是应该做什么还是不应该做什么。//

和现在一样，美国当年是颠覆性的数字革命的先锋。互联网的出现掀起了一波创新浪潮，人们对美国前景乐观的情绪异样高涨。到1999年，美国年度GDP增长超4%，几乎是富裕国家平均水平的两倍。失业率降至4%，为30年新低。外国投资者蜂拥而至，推高了美元和股价。标准普尔500指数涨幅翻了30番，科技股疯狂飙升。

如现今一样，美国的乐观情绪和其他国家的颓靡形成了鲜明对比。1997年日本经济陷入通货紧缩状态。德国是当时的“欧洲病夫”，其国内企业受到僵化的劳动力市场和其他高成本的掣肘。曾领先高速发展的新兴市场也陷入危机：泰国、巴西等国家的外资紧急撤离，以美元为主的外债偿还信心大大动摇，货币急剧贬值。

最终，美国也难逃一劫。2000年初科技股泡沫破灭，引发更大范围的股价暴跌。商业投资，尤其科技投资，减少。随着股市受挫，消费者支出紧缩。到2001年初美国，与大多数发达国家一起，进入了经济倒退，虽然情况较为温和。//

壮哉美国

这种比较必定不是最恰当的，最大的区别在中国。1999年的中国还只是个小角色，现在已成为世界第二大经济体，对全球经济增长作出了不成比例的贡献。不过，当时扰乱世界经济稳定的三大趋势现在也可能卷土重来。

第一个趋势是美国和几乎所有其它国家之间的增速差，前者在加速，后者在放缓。90年代后期，当时的美国财政部副部长告诫说世界经济“在靠单一引擎飞行”。《经济学人》专家预测2015年美国经济增长3%，日本和欧元区1.1%，中国增速回落至7%左右。

美国人可以自我安慰的是：像上世纪90年代后期一样，部分的乐观差距是得以保证的。美国国内新岗位创造速度比1999年以来任何时候都要快，油价低廉带动了消费，商业投资回暖。但这并非全然是利好消息，薄利的油价可能会令美国许多油页岩生产商在2015年破产，而美元走强和疲软的海外环境会伤害出口企业，这跟15年前如出一辙。英国，另一个盎格鲁势力范围的捍卫者，亦可能受到欧元区困境的拖累而损失惨重。

与上世纪90年代末相似的第二个令人担忧的趋势是发达国家中另两大经济体的惨淡前景。德国的增长率已摔到1%左右，它还有一个更深又难以言喻的痼疾，原因在于多年的投资不足，和一个灾难性的能源政策，再加上政府过于执着追求财政目标守财不花钱而且过于害怕选民，进而没有像2003年的格哈德·施罗德一样实施那样的结构性改革。同时日本为了免于陷入经济停滞而过早地去提高消费税，重犯了1997年的错误。

上世纪90年代的第三波回音是新兴市场的危机。当时的问题来自固定汇率和巨额外债。现在的债务较之前低，汇率是浮动的，大部份国家都建立了储备。依然，麻烦的迹象越来越多，尤其在俄罗斯。其他大宗商品出口国的日子也不好过，特别是非洲。尼日利亚95%的出口都是石油，占了财政收入的75%。加纳已经跑去国际货币基金组织寻求援助。其它国家的危机存在于企业界。许多巴西企业美元债台高筑。一连串企业债务违约可能没有上世纪90年代亚洲地区的国债危机来得惊人，但都足以让投资者绷紧神经，推高美元。//

心有余悸

以上都加起来的话，2015年将可能崎岖难行。看跌的人会下注：如果美元大幅升值，欧洲地区不景气，新兴市场再来一些危机，最终就会绊倒美国走向下坡路。在利好的一面，股市表面的泡沫看似没有90年代的多：标准普尔500指数的市盈率为18，略高于历史平均线。尽管许多科技企业都在不管不顾地投资，但大部分财务状况都不错。而全球金融体系的杠杆较少，因此不那么易于传染。再说，1998年有俄罗斯对美国一家大型对冲基金美国长期资本管理公司（LTCM）发生债务违约，致其垮台。这样的连锁反应在今天发生的可能性不高。

然而，全球经济走势要是真要踉跄而行的话，这一回合要恢复稳定的难度会更大，因为政策制定者已经黔驴技穷了。回到1999年，美联储的政策利率在5%左右，在经济放缓的时候有足够的空间去减息。而现今所有富裕国家的利率贴近零。

政治环境也不一样，有点糟糕。在90年代末，富裕国家的大部分人都尝过经济繁荣的甜头，如在1995到2000年期间美国人的中位数工资水平就实际上涨了7.7%。相比之下，自2007年以来美国这一数字的增幅一直是平的，而英国和大部分欧元区在下降。从民意调查和选民转投反对党派的意愿来看，各发达国家的人民对他们的政府已经感到烦躁不耐。倘若他们再被挤压，明年的不满情绪可会升级成愤怒。2015年全球经济或许和90年代后期相似，不过政治形势就可能会更不让人期待。

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