【中国论坛热词解码】（第68期）美国经济是否处于“硬着陆”边缘？
根据芝加哥大学布斯商学院12日公布的一项最新调查结果，近70%接受问调的经济学家认为，美国经济明年将陷入衰退。其中美国财政部前部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）表示，美联储解决通货膨胀问题时可能诱发经济衰退、失业率上升和利率飙涨等后果。
▲图片来源：Getty Images网站
Sahm pointed out that last time consumer sentiment was so low, the US was in the midst of the debt ceiling crisis and still climbing out of the Great Recession, and there was turmoil in Europe. Essentially, a lot of things were bad. Now we’re in a similar scenario — people feel bad about a lot of things, which translates into how they’re feeling about the economy.
前美联储经济学家萨姆（Claudia Sahm）指出，上一次消费者信心如此低迷时美国正处于债务上限危机且在努力摆脱大萧条之中，欧洲出现了动荡，实际情况很糟糕。如今我们正处于相似的情形中，人们为很多事情感到沮丧，这进一步转化为人们对经济的感受。
（英文摘自2022.06.08 Vox 网站）
▲图片来源：USA Today网站
The sudden shift is giving many in the sector whiplash. Uncertainty has settled over Silicon Valley as venture capitalists, tech founders and regular employees debate whether the pessimism is overblown or if tech really is the canary in the coal mine, already suggesting a broader downturn in the U.S. economy.
这种突然的转变警醒了行业内的不少人。随着风险资本家、科技创始人和普通职工都在争论悲观情绪是否被夸大、科技行业（近期的裁员）是否是预警信号，这种不确定性已经笼罩硅谷，更广泛意义上地暗示了美国经济的衰退。
（英文摘自2022.06.11 The Washington Post 网站）
▲图片来源：HOT Idiom网站
Tesla (TSLA.O) CEO Elon Musk's "super bad feeling" about the economy could be the auto industry's "canary in the coal mine" moment, signaling a recession for an industry whose bosses have shown no signs of concern.
特斯拉（TSLA.O）首席执行马斯克（Elon Musk）对经济的“感觉很糟”，这可能是汽车行业的危险前兆，预示着这个行业的衰退，而老板们却没有表现出任何担忧的迹象。
（英文摘自2022.06.03 Reuters 网站）
All this headwind is enacted by policy makers without surgical precision. In fact, central bankers are flying virtually blind, only viewing the economy through a hazy rearview mirror, as most macro data are lagging.
所有这种不利因素都是由把握不精确的政策制定者激发的。事实上，央行行长们只能透过模糊的后视镜来观察经济情况，大多数宏观数据的滞后导致了他们（政策制定上的）盲目。
（英文摘自2022.06.10 Harvard Business Review 网站）
美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在5月的新闻发布会上表示，美联储基本上是在用“钝器” 来对抗通胀，无法做到像“外科手术般的精确”。
（英文摘自2022.06.02 Nasdaq 网站）
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is facing an increasingly grim calculus after yet another hot inflation reading last week: He probably has to push the economy into recession in order to regain control of prices.
通胀数据在上周再一次飙升之后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在面临一个日益艰难的取舍：他可能不得以选择将经济推向衰退来重新获得对物价水平的控制。
（英文摘自2022.06.13 Bloomberg 网站）
The elephant in the room is, of course, inflation, which is high and, for most consumers, just incredibly annoying. Rising prices are cutting into wage gains for workers. The average price of gas nationally was $4.91 as of June 7, climbing just as many Americans get ready to hit the road for the summer.
当然，高通胀是明摆着的难题，大多数消费者为此感到心烦。物价上涨正在削减工人的工资收益。截至6月7日，全国天然气平均价格为4.91美元，这赶上夏季美国人准备（开车）上路旅行时（旺季）的价格水平了。
（英文摘自2022.06.08 Vox 网站）
Add to inflation over two years of a pandemic, war in Ukraine, mass shootings, and political dysfunction, and it makes it hard to say you feel good about anything, including the economy. “It’s just a noxious brew that’s come together and is weighing very heavily on the collective psyche at this point.”
通货膨胀再加上两年来的疫情、乌克兰战争、大规模枪击事件和政治失灵，很难说人们对包括经济在内的一切都感觉良好。“这只是一种有毒的组合，它聚集在一起，在这一点上对集体心理造成了非常大的压力。"
（英文摘自2022.06.08 RTE News 网站）
编辑：祖白地亚 审核：武一琪、韩桦