【高端访谈】 凯利·布朗：“一带一路”让我们更好地了解中国
2013年9月，习近平总书记在纳扎尔巴耶夫大学发表演讲，提出 “丝绸之路经济带”的概念。同年10月，习总书记在印度尼西亚又进一步提出“共同建设21世纪‘海上丝绸之路’的理念”。由此形成了“一带一路”倡议。
“一带一路”作为开放、包容的国际合作新平台，它的建设将为沿线国家带来新的发展机遇,帮助沿线国家加强基础设施建设,并促进国家间的贸易、金融和文化往来。自“一带一路”倡议提出以来，已经有100多个国家和国际组织签署了《“一带一路”合作协议》，联合国也通过了三项相关决议,呼吁国际社会通过“一带一路”建设加强彼此合作。
China Focus将以“一带一路”为主题，推出一系列海外知名人物高端访谈，汇集来自英国、新加坡、泰国、澳大利亚等国学界和政界精英的真实看法。本栏目也将为“一带一路”合作的未来发展提供有益的经验和参考。
On Sept. 7, 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan, proposing the concept of “Silk Road Economic Belt”. On Oct. 3 of the same year,he also put forward the idea of the“21st-Century Maritime Silk Road” in Indonesia. These two terms are now referred to as the “Belt and Road” Initiative.
As an open and inclusive new platform for international cooperation, “Belt and Road” construction will bring new development opportunities to countries along the route and help improve infrastructure, as well as promote trade, finance and humanities exchanges. Therefore, since its introduction, more than 100 countries and international organizations have signed the "Belt and Road" cooperation agreement, and the United Nations has also passed three related resolutions, calling on the international community to strengthen cooperation through "Belt and Road" construction.
With the theme of “Belt and Road” construction, China Focus is set to launch a series of high-profile overseas interviews to gather real insights from academic and the political elite in the UK, Singapore, Thailand, Australia, etc. This will provide useful experience and reference for the future development of “Belt and Road” cooperation.
访谈对象：凯利·布朗，伦敦大学国王学院教授、刘鸣炜中国研究院院长
采访者：薛力，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员
日期：2018年9月28日
地点：伦敦国王学院
Interviewee: Kerry Brown, Professor at King's College London, Director of the LAU China Institute.
Interviewer: Li Xue, professor for University of CASS, director of the Department of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Science’s Institute of World Economics and Politics.
Date: September 28, 2018
Place: King’s College, University of London
English Translation: China Focus
China Focus：在您看来，习近平主席提出“一带一路”的主要原因是什么？
凯利·布朗：部分是为了表达中国的意图，告诉世界她能够做些什么。这在一定程度上是因为过去10年中国所遭受的压力。中国想更多地表达，她希望从世界上得到什么，力图获得世界的接受和认可。这是一种大型的对话，是从来没有发生过的事情。
China Focus: In your opinion, what is the dynamic shaping Xi Jinping’s proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?
Kerry Brown: It is partly in order to express what China wants to the rest of the world in a way which the rest of the world can engage with. It is in some part because of the pressure in the last 10 years, leading China to say more about what it wants from the world around it and for China to be able to acquire a sort of acceptance or acknowledgement of what it wants. Generally speaking, it’s one kind of the big dialogue. It’s something that hasn’t happened before.
China Focus：中国提出“一带一路”是因为经济原因，还是有超越经济的考虑？
凯利·布朗：“一带一路”不仅是出于经济上的原因，也不像中国在地图上做规划那样简单。还有一些文化、地缘政治和哲学方面的因素。这些因素引起了人们对“一带一路”真实意图的争论。这给理解“一带一路”带来了困难，而比较容易的处理方式就是从经济角度看“一带一路”，比如协助建设基础设施。事实上，“一带一路”并不局限于经济方面。其他因素的介入使“一带一路”变得非常复杂。
China Focus: So as you see it, it’s mainly about the economy, or does it go beyond the economy?
Kerry Brown: It couldn’t just be about the economy. It couldn’t be about the economy alone. It does have all sorts of cultural, political and philosophical issues. There are many debates at the moment about what it means. I guess the easiest way to understand it is through economics. But it is obviously much more than that. That’s what we are trying to work out at the moment.
▲ “一带一路”合作研究中心于2018年12月18日在泰国曼谷成立。
“The Belt and Road” Cooperation Research Center is opened in Bangkok, Thailand, Dec. 18, 2018.
China Focus：“一带一路”的优点是什么？又存在哪些问题？
凯利·布朗：优点是“一带一路”让世人对中国的意图有了更多的了解。缺点是，这个倡议如此宏大，以致于人们迄今尚未发现它的全部价值。我们都试图理解“一带一路”对世界的真实意义和价值。
China Focus: What are the advantages and disadvantages of the BRI?
Kerry Brown: The advantage is that we know a little bit more about what China wants. The disadvantage is that it is a huge idea and I think there is no real consensus on what it really means. So we all try to work out what exactly this idea means to the world. Everyone seems to have a very different idea, so there is no easy consensus. You just said it is about the economy. Most people would think of it as an economic idea or something that helps in building infrastructure. But clearly it involves more than that. That’s when things get more complex.
China Focus：您认为它还有哪些具体的优点？
凯利·布朗：优点之一是中国学会了与世界共享其经济发展成果；优点之二是创造出一种公共语言，人们可以利用这一语言与中国沟通，对中国这个第二大经济体有更多了解；优点之三是为欧洲国家和亚洲国家的经济发展提供便利。我们（欧洲）与中国合作生产。这些都是肉眼可见的。“一带一路”建设为将来的合作建立了框架与基础。但现在得出明确结论为时尚早，人们很难对其真实价值做出明确的判断。好在它至少提出了一个框架。一个宏观战略框架本身就有一定的价值。
China Focus: Can you say more about the advantages? What are they exactly?
Kerry Brown: The advantage is that China has learned about developing its economy and this information can be shared around the world. The second advantage is that it creates a common language. So we need to talk to China to develop a better understanding of the world’s second biggest economy. And third is that it obviously benefits our economies in Europe or Asia. We have productive ways of working with China, which is reciprocal. The Belt and Road might see the development of a framework or structure. But at the moment, it is really early days. So it is hard to be clear about what it really means. But at least we have the structure. It gives us a structure. So the Belt and Road is a structure and a kind of large strategic framework. It makes sense.
China Focus：您觉得“一带一路”推出后，中国的国家形象有何变化？
凯利·布朗：中国的国家形象正变得更加复杂。越来越多的人在考虑这一问题。有些人对此感到焦虑。他们认为“一带一路”建设在（一些国家）引发了债务问题，中国有可能以此影响或者控制这些国家。当然，一些国家、机构和组织（在参与“一带一路”的过程中）的确得到了经济利益。与过去五年相比，我们更加关注中国对欧洲、对世界的政策。我们更加意识到中国的复杂性，意识到我们需要应对而不是忽略这一问题。
China Focus: Have you noticed any changes in the image of China?
Kerry Brown: China’s image is more complex. Some worry about China. They think the Belt and Road is about debt. Some are obviously more interested in getting financial gain from China. But certainly you can say that compared to five years ago, policymakers in Europe or elsewhere around the worldare thinking more about China. We are more aware of the complexity of the situation. We know that China has complexity and we need to deal with that. We can’t just ignore it.
▲ 21世纪海上丝绸之路将连接中国港口设施与欧洲和非洲海岸。
The 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road is set to link China’s port facilities with the European and African coasts.
China Focus：在您看来，接下来中国应该如何推进“一带一路”的实施？
凯利·布朗：“一带一路”是一个注定要壮大的事物。对于这类事物，人们没法做太多，顺其自然就好。当然了，人们可以调节它的速度，让它不要发展太快。
我认为中国不应该快速推进“一带一路”，最好能够做到绿色发展。
China Focus: What is the next step China should take to improve the implementation of the BRI?
Kerry Brown: It’s something that just has to grow. I mean we don’t really need to do things because lots of things are already happening. I think enough is happening. You can’t keep on doing the things you know. Sometimes, you just let things happen. So I think with this it needs to grow with all those involved, getting a feel for the speed of it. They can deal with the speed. They don’t want things to happen too quickly. I don’t think China can really push quickly. It’s got to grow more organically.
China Focus：中国希望“一带一路”成为“世纪工程”，您认为“一带一路”是否具有可持续性？
凯利·布朗：现在下结论为时尚早。中国现在有能力做更多的事情，问题在于她想用这种力量做什么。中国想要（取代美国）创造一个“中国治下的世界”吗？我们无法从历史中得到想要的答案，也不清楚中国（在这方面）的价值观是什么。弄清楚这一点并不容易。
China Focus: China hopes the BRI will be a “century project”. Do you think it is sustainable?
Kerry Brown: It is too early to say. We have to remember that it’s early days. I mean China as a country has the capacity now to do much more than before. The question is what it wants to do with that power. That’s what we are trying to work out. It’s going to try the Pax Sinica approach, and we never have that in modern history. What are Chinese values? I mean that is not an easy question.
▲ 美国前总统吉米·卡特2018年12月31日在美国媒体撰文表示，美中两国应有坚定信念为两国和全人类共创美好未来。
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter said that China and the United States need to build their futures together, for themselves and for humanity at large on December 31, 2018.
China Focus：从长远来看，中国有可能取代美国在世界上的角色吗？
凯利·布朗：我不认为。这里有两个问题，一是是否想要，二是是否能做到。中国说自己不想。（当世界领导需要）像美国那样背负巨大的责任，花大量的钱，这不是中国想要的。那么，中国能做到的是什么类型大国呢？中国希望成为不同类型的大国，成为一个建设性大国。这很有趣，意味着中国将关注世界范围内的热点问题并做出自己的贡献。这是前所未有的，历史上找不到相应的参考地图。
China Focus: Do you think it is possible that China will replace the role of the United States in the world in the long run?
Kerry Brown: I don’t think so. There are two questions. One question is, does it want to? If they say they don’t want to, then they don’t have the objective. What does that mean? That means China is kind of having the same sort of heavy burdens and responsibilities and spending the same kind of money that Americans spend. That’s not so easy. So it seems that’s not what China wants. It doesn’t seem to want that. So China wants to be a different kind of power where it shares, like it’s facilitating power. It’s interesting to be a facilitating power. That means they can say what they think about issues in the world around them. Do they feel comfortable with the sort of China that has never before existed in modern history? We don’t have any map.
China Focus：您认为英国在“一带一路”的推进中能够扮演何种角色？
凯利·布朗：这取决于脱欧的进程。明年脱欧成功后，我们将会寻求与中国建立一种新型关系。这种关系可能会使英国从中国引入更多投资，吸引更多的中国资本进入伦敦金融城。“一带一路”对英国十分重要，因为我们需要思考中国对我们意味着什么。很少有人仔细考虑过这个问题。
China Focus: What kind of role does the UK play? Is there a close connection to Brexit?
Kerry Brown: Yeah, I think it has a connection with Brexit. After we have to leave the European Union next year, we will try to seek a kind of new relationship with China, which is what we say we want. That kind of relationship is probably going to be about attracting more investment and financing in the city of London. I mean I think the BRI is important because we need to think about what China means to us. Perhaps not many people have thought about that.
撰文 / China Focus团队
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