【高端访谈】 包天民: “一带一路” 为一些国家提供了新的发展模式
2013年，习近平总书记先后提出“丝绸之路经济带”和“海上丝绸之路”的概念，“一带一路”倡议由此形成。
China Focus以“一带一路”为主题，推出一系列海外知名人物高端访谈，今天推出对加拿大卡尔顿大学政治学系教授包天民的专访。
In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the concepts of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" . These two terms are now referred to as the Belt and Road Initiative.
With the theme of Belt and Road construction, China Focus is set to launch a series of high-profile overseas interviews. Today we have an exclusive interview with with Jeremy Paltiel, professor of the Department of Political Science, Carleton University, Canada.
访谈对象：包天民，加拿大卡尔顿大学政治学系教授
访谈人员：薛力，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员
访谈地点：加拿大渥太华卡尔顿大学包天民办公室
访谈日期：2018年12月15日
Interviewee: Jeremy Paltiel, Professor, Department of Political Science, Carleton University, Canada
Interviewer: Xue Li, Researcher, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Interview Venue: Jeremy Paltiel's Office, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
Interview Date: December 15, 2018
China Focus: 在您看来，习近平主席在2013年提出“一带一路”的原因是什么？
China Focus: From your perspective, what are the motivations behind Chinese President Xi Jinping's proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013?
包天民：在我看来，“一带一路”的提出既有政治原因也有经济原因。经济方面，中国不再是一个穷国和弱国，现在是一个大国和强国。中国已经从价格的接受者转变为价格的制定者，并且成为全球最大出口国。2008年的经济危机导致全球经济形势低迷。没有进口，出口也不会顺利增长。因此，中国显然需要通过提高全球经济生产能力来拉动国内经济增长，这是最主要的经济原因。
Jeremy Paltiel: From my perspective, the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward for political and economic reasons. In terms of its economy, China has grown from poor and weak to a big and powerful country. It has turned from price recipient to price setter. It is now the world's largest exporter. The 2008 economic crisis led to a downturn in the global economic situation. Without imports, exports are certain to not grow. Therefore, China obviously needs to boost domestic economic growth by increasing global economic production capacity, which is the main economic reason behind the proposal.
换个角度看，一个能够提供公共产品的项目，如果能够增加对中国基础设施建设的需求，有潜力改善邻国的经济以提高他们对中国货物的需求量，这个项目将很有价值。当然，另一方面是，2008年经济危机之后，中国最大的市场仍然在欧洲，因此“一带一路”通向欧洲也很有必要。
To put it another way, a project that can provide public goods would be of great value if it could increase demand on China for infrastructure construction, and has the potential to improve the economy of neighboring countries so as to increase their demand for Chinese goods. Of course, on the other hand, after the 2008 economic crisis, China's largest market is still in Europe, so the Belt and Road approach toward Europe is also necessary.
▲ 中国企业助力法国博杜安公司重获新生。(图/新华社)
Chinese companies help France's Baudouin Company to regain profitability. (Photo/Xinhua)
“一带一路”必然包括政治方面的原因。中国的全球角色促使其在全球范围内发挥作用，因此就需要在全球范围内提供公共产品。中国有必要实施这一国际行动。中国在世界上的作用越来越大，不需要继续韬光养晦。
The proposal of the Belt and Road inevitably includes political reasons. China's global role requires it to exert its influence on the world, so it needs to provide public goods on a global scale. It is necessary for China to implement this international action. China's role in the world is growing, and there is no need for it to continue to keep a low profile.
而作为世界上最大的出口国，中国在经济上也有必要这么做。中国需要开放市场，除此之外别无选择。
As the world's largest exporter, China also needs to go global in economic terms. China has no options but to open up its markets.
China Focus: 您个人如何评价“一带一路”倡议？
China Focus: How do you personally evaluate the Belt and Road Initiative?
包天民：在我看来，总体方案很好。
Jeremy Paltiel: The overall plan is good.
我认为从某些方面来说，“一带一路” 确实为一些国家提供了新的发展模式。通过基础设施投资，这些国家或多或少是在模仿中国的发展模式。但是我不认为这是件坏事。因为我觉得市场经济有两种发展模式，一种是国家主导，一种是企业主导的。在中国之前，日本、韩国和法国都是这种混合模式。因为政府和国家能够按照自己的国情和时机选择适合自己的发展模式，所以两种模式的竞争有利于国家的发展。对发展中国家而言，这是一种积极竞争而非零和博弈。这就是为什么我认为“一带一路”是个好倡议。
In my view, the Belt and Road has indeed provided some countries with new development models. By investing in infrastructure, these countries are more or less imitating China's development model. But I don't think that's a bad thing, because I think there are two development models of market economies. One is State-led, while the other is enterprise-led. Before China, countries like Japan, the Republic of Korea and France were all mixed models. Countries and their respective governments can choose their own development models according to their own national conditions and factors such as timing, so the competition between the two models is conducive to the development of a country. For developing countries, this is positive competition rather than a zero-sum game. That's why I think the Belt and Road Initiative is a good thing.
▲ 中巴经济走廊瓜达尔港落成前全貌。
A general view of the port before the inauguration of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor port in Gwadar.
但也存在需要改进的方面，比如，一些“一带一路”参与国家未能明智地选择具体合作项目，而参与其中的一些中国企业对项目的可靠性也缺乏把握。
However, there are still some aspects that can be improved. For example, some host countries fail to choose specific cooperation projects wisely. And some Chinese enterprises are not sure about the reliability of the projects in which they are involved.
另一方面，是需要建立学习机制和多边机制。
On the other hand, it is necessary to establish learning mechanisms and multilateral mechanisms.
中国很擅长基础设施建设，这是中国的优势。中国企业有能力在极短时间内修建一条道路，但有些企业缺少和当地企业合作的经验，需要通过学习来提高培养合作伙伴的能力。
China is good at building infrastructure, which is China's advantage. Chinese enterprises have the ability to build a road in a very short time, but some enterprises have insufficient experience in working with local enterprises. They need to learn to improve their ability to cultivate partnerships.
▲ 这是在中车长客客车制造中心装配一车间拍摄的波士顿地铁列车。（图/新华社）
A subway carriage for Boston's orange line at an assembly factory of CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles Co. Ltd. (Photo/Xinhua)
另外有些项目涉及不止一个国家，在制度设计和政治层面，需要有将相关国家联系起来的机制，缺乏协调机制就会产生经济成本。
Additionally, in projects involving more than one country, there is a need to link the countries involved in terms of institutional design and at the political level. Otherwise the lack of coordination mechanisms will result in economic costs.
China Focus: 据您所知，加拿大是否参与了“一带一路”建设？
China Focus: As far as you know, is Canada involved in the Belt and Road construction？
包天民：我不知道加拿大是否直接参与了有关“一带一路”的项目。加拿大是亚投行的一员，但是跟“一带一路”倡议无关。
Jeremy Paltiel: I don't know if Canada is directly involved in the Belt and Road projects. Canada is a member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, but it has nothing to do with the Belt and Road Initiative.
加拿大不在“一带一路”的地理范围之内。问题在于我们能否成为合作伙伴。
Canada is not located in the geographical area of the Belt and Road. The question is whether we can be partners.
China Focus: 在您看来，随着 “一带一路”倡议的提出，中国的外交政策是否发生了变化？
China Focus: With the introduction of the Belt and Road Initiative, has China's foreign policy changed in your view?
包天民：当“一带一路”倡议刚刚提出来时，它正逢其时。中国更加进取，她希望在国际上积极发挥作用。我觉得这不全是消极的，其中有积极成分。
Jeremy Paltiel: When the Belt and Road Initiative had just been put forward, it coincided with the needs of the time. China is more enterprising, and she hopes to play an active role in the international arena. I don't think it is all negative. There are positive aspects to it.
例如马其顿和希腊的关系问题在欧洲已有近30年之久，但因为“一带一路”倡议，为了修建铁路，希腊试图解决这一问题。对一些特定问题来说，“一带一路”倡议很有效果。在某种程度上，中国是一个积极的推动者。
For example, in Europe, there has been a problem with the Macedonia-Greece relationship for nearly 30 years. Because of the Belt and Road Initiative, Greece is trying to solve the problems it faces in order to build railways. For some specific issues, the Belt and Road Initiative is very effective. To some extent, China is an active promoter.
此外，“16+1”框架下的“一带一路”倡议对东部和南部欧洲国家也有积极作用，因为他们一直觉得自己被布鲁塞尔（欧盟委员会）和西欧国家忽略。一位保加利亚人曾经告诉我说：“我们希望中国关注我们，这样布鲁塞尔才会关注我们。如果没有中国，西欧就会忽视我们。”
In addition, the Belt and Road Initiative, under the "16+1" framework, also plays a positive role in eastern and southern European countries, as such countries have long felt they are being left out by Brussels (the European Commission) and western European countries. A Bulgarian once told me, "We want China to pay attention to us so that Brussels will give us their attention as well. Without China, western Europe would ignore us."
▲ 2017年10月31日，“‘一带一路’和‘16+1合作’框架下的中阿合作”圆桌会在阿尔巴尼亚首都地拉那举行。
China-Arab cooperation under the Belt and Road and the "16+1" framework was held in Tirana, the capital of Albania, on Oct. 31, 2017.
但“16+1”框架下的国家有些是欧盟成员，有些不是。在“一带一路”与欧盟之间，需要建立起多边协调机制，否则就有一些欧盟国家无法从“一带一路”中获利。对“16+1”成员和欧盟成员而言，中国给他们带来了利益。对中国而言，这是一个实践学习的过程。在学习投射影响之前，中国应该首先提升自己的影响力。中国是一个世界性大国，必须要扮演全球性角色，并且需要中国需要学习如何管理全球关系。
However, some countries under the "16+1" framework are members of the European Union (EU). Others are not. Multilateral coordination mechanisms need to be established between the Belt and Road and the EU. Otherwise, some EU countries cannot benefit from the Belt and Road Initiative. For the "16+1" members and EU members, China has brought benefits. For China, this is a process of practical learning. Before learning to project influence, China should first enhance its influence. As a world power, China must play a global role and it needs to learn how to manage global relations.
China Focus: 习近平将“一带一路”称为“世纪工程”，这意味着需要推进“一带一路”的可持续发展。在您看来，在“一带一路”建设的可持续性方面有什么问题？该如何解决？
China Focus: President Xi Jinping referred to the Belt and Road Initiative as a "Century Project", which means that the sustainable development of the Belt and Road will be promoted. In your opinion, what are the sustainability problems faced in the construction of the Belt and Road? How can such problems be solved?
包天民：我认为就常规贷款而言，商业利率不可持续，因为规模太大。
Jeremy Paltiel: As for regular loans, I don't think commercial interest rates can be sustained considering their large scale.
生态方面，我了解到的例子是巴基斯坦的火电站造成了生态问题。中方在巴基斯坦建了四个火电站，又建了两个风力发电站，然后巴方表示这（整体上）是环保的。但我认为中国缺乏确保（“一带一路”）可持续性的机制，因为中国不能确保环保等原则得以遵守。
In terms of ecology, one example which I have learned about is that the thermal power plant in Pakistan has caused ecological problems. China has built four thermal power stations and two wind power stations in Pakistan. The Palestinian side has said that these projects are environmentally friendly (in general). But I don't think China has a mechanism to ensure sustainability (of the Belt and Road) because China cannot ensure that environmental principles will be followed.
▲ 中企在津巴布韦的最大水电项目——卡里巴南岸水电站扩机工程。（图/新华社）
China Enterprise's largest hydropower project in Zimbabwe-the expansion of the South Bank of Casamance hydropower station. (Photo/Xinhua)
（薛：您可能不了解，中国现在出口的火电站都是污染很低的新一代火电站，发展风力发电站更是出于对环保的考虑；但因为风力不稳定，配套建设低污染火电站是经常性做法。）
(Xue: In fact, the thermal power plants that China now exports are all new generation, low-pollution thermal power plants. Developing wind power farms is also down to environmental considerations. However, because wind power is unstable, it is common practice to build complementary low-pollution thermal power plants.)
金融领域的问题更突出。因为有关金融可持续性和经济可持续性的问题最终都是中国的问题，而不仅仅是东道国的问题。无论如何，中国都要解决这一问题。
The financial problems are more prominent, because the issues related to financial sustainability and economic sustainability are ultimately China's problems, not just the problems of the host country. In any case, China has to solve these problems.
China Focus: 您觉得“一带一路”倡议提出后，中国的国家形象有什么变化？
China Focus: What changes do you think the proposal of the Belt and Road Initiative will bring to China's national image?
包天民：这是一个好问题。我认为这取决于观察人士。我觉得中国在“一带一路”共建国家的形象正在改善，但我不知道中国的形象在西欧是否改善了。但随着“一带一路”的实施，中国的形象的确有所提升。
Jeremy Paltiel: That is a good question. I think it depends on the observer. I think China's image along the Belt and Road is improving, but I don't know whether the image of China has improved in western Europe. But with the implementation of the Belt and Road, China's image is improving.
▲ 一批中国铁路快运集装箱，在德国西部杜伊斯堡的杜伊斯堡多式联运码头装卸货物。（图/新华社）
Photo shows a cargo of China Railway Express being moved at Duisburg Intermodal Terminal in Duisburg, western Germany. (Photo/Xinhua)
拉丁美洲人民的看法比较复杂。对有些人来说中国的形象有所改善，对另外一些人来说变坏了。很多人不理解作为一个全球大国，中国应该如何作为。你们对此无能为力。一个形象的比喻是：中国是一头大象，其他国家是一只老鼠。大象的一举一动都可能会影响到老鼠。尽管你没有忽视他，但你无意中仍然可能会严重伤害他，你并不是有意为之。会有这种影响，仅仅是因为中国是一个全球性大国。中国要充分意识到这一点并采取预防措施。
The views of Latin American people are more complicated. For some people, the image of China has improved, while for others, it has deteriorated. Many people do not understand how China should act as a global power. There's nothing that can be done to change this. A suitable analogy is that China is an elephant and other countries are mice. Everything the elephant does can affect the mice individually. Even if the elephant does not ignore a mouse, it can cause him great harm inadvertently. China does not intend to harm other countries. This effect only exists because China is a global power. China must be fully aware of its position and take precautionary measures.
就我个人而言，我喜欢中国。尽管我有时也会批评中国政府，但仍然认为中国是世界稳定的重要贡献者。加拿大人及其他西方国家应该承认这一点。不知何种原因，中国为世界和平所做的贡献没有得到足够的关注。加拿大媒体报道更多的是中国带来的威胁。实际上，中国为世界和平做出了很大贡献，因为这是中国领导人的追求。
Personally, I like China. Although I sometimes criticize the Chinese government, I still think that China is an important contributor to world stability. Canadians and Westerners should acknowledge this. For some reason, China's contribution to world peace has not received enough attention. Canadian media report more about the threat posed by China. In fact, China has made a great contribution to world peace because it is the pursuit of Chinese leaders.
具体到“一带一路”倡议，我认为需要东道国来讲成功故事，而不只是由中国来讲。
For the Belt and Road Initiative, I think success stories should be told by host countries, not just by China.
▲ 中国修建的铁路将内陆国家埃塞俄比亚与海洋相连。如今，埃塞俄比亚已成为世界上经济增长最快的国家之一。
Chinese-built railway links landlocked Ethiopia, one of the world's fastest growing economies, to the sea.
比如，埃塞俄比亚是当今世界上发展最快的国家之一，原因在于逐步改善的国内治理和来自中国的帮助。
For example, Ethiopia is one of the fastest growing countries in the world because of progressively improved domestic governance and help from China.
但是，委婉一点来说，埃塞俄比亚处于内陆，它不想仅仅依靠中国在吉布提修建的铁路发展海运。因此，尽管和厄立特里亚国的矛盾已经存在了二十多年，但他们最近仍然选择了和解。不想完全依赖中国这一因素推动了两个国家的和解进程，这对两个国家的人民有益，对该地区有益，对整个世界都有益。
But, to put it mildly, Ethiopia is inland and does not want to rely solely on the railways built by China in Djibouti to develop maritime transport. Therefore, although conflict with Eritrea has existed for more than 20 years, the two countries have recently chosen to reconcile. The fact that they do not want to rely entirely on China has promoted the reconciliation process between the two countries, which is beneficial to the people of the two countries, the region and even to the entire world.
双方的和解带来了和平，中国也乐见其成。
China is also happy with the peace brought about by the reconciliation between the two sides.
我们需要更多像埃塞俄比亚这样的故事。
We need more stories like Ethiopia.
编辑 / 李莉娟、蔡海若
Editors / Li Lijuan, Cai Hairuo
图片 / 网络
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