杨安泽：弗吉尼亚的教训

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2021年11月2日，周二晚上，政治世界被杨金当选弗吉尼亚州下一任州长的胜利震惊了。杨金是一名共和党人，他赢得了拜登在12个月前还以10个百分点赢下的州。

对我们来说，这里有一些启发。首先，目前全美政治气候似乎对民主党人非常不利。在拜登以16个百分点赢下的新泽西州，州长选举的结果不相上下。拜登目前的支持率徘徊在43%左右，71%的美国人最近表示，美国正处于错误的轨道上。尽管奥巴马、拜登、哈里斯和几乎所有其他民主党的名人都出现在弗吉尼亚州聚拢人气，但弗吉尼亚州民主党选民的热情一直很低。

如果是今天举行选举，共和党人在2022年赢回众议院的可能性几乎是肯定的。

第二点，民主党人的主导信息--击败川普和控制新冠疫情--已经不起作用了。麦考利夫（民主党候选人，现任州长）试图将杨金与川普联系起来，但收效甚微。美国公众已经厌倦了听到关于新冠Covid的消息，候选人不能再靠它来竞选。民主党人需要一个积极的议题，去让人们感到兴奋。停滞不前的基础设施法案当然没有帮助，因为它们给人一种民主党疲于内斗而毫无建树的感觉。

第三点，它指出了一条通往川普之后的共和党未来的道路。杨金让很多人想起了罗姆尼--一个西装革履的私募股权高管，在个性和社会观点方面表现得很温和。杨金以教育问题和遏制民主党的激进主张为竞选主题，这足以蚕食民主党在郊区的优势。农村选民大量涌向杨金。这说明一个温和的共和党人可以保住自己的基础选民，同时在摇摆区进行竞争，至少在弗吉尼亚州是这样。

弗吉尼亚州的结果，最重要的是指出了任何选举结果的脆弱性，以及选民在投票之后的低忠诚度。虽然，弗吉尼亚州几个月前还以10个百分点的优势支持拜登，而且随着人口结构的变化和郊区的扩大，所有迹象都表明弗吉尼亚是一个偏向蓝色的州。然而杨金却赢了。钟摆会不断地来回摆动，而人们会越来越厌烦现状。

我可以非常清楚地看到通往2022年和2024年大选的道路。在那之后，不知道会发生什么，因为这种摇摆的产物之一是人们会越来越疲倦。

一位朋友对我说："民主党人的主要情感诉求似乎是恐惧。但人们不可能一直都害怕。恐惧会消失。" 

这正是我们可以从弗吉尼亚得到的一个很好教训。

Nov 3, 2021

LESSONS FROM VIRGINIA

Written By Andrew Yang

Tuesday night the political world was stunned by the victory of Glenn Youngkin as the next governor of Virginia.  Youngkin is a Republican who won a state that Joe Biden had won by 10 points just 12 months earlier. 

There are a number of takeaways.  First, the political climate seems very negative for Democrats nationally.  In New Jersey, a state that Biden won by 16 points, the governor’s race was neck-and-neck.  Biden’s current approval rating hovers around 43% with 71% of Americans recently saying that America is on the wrong track.  The enthusiasm among Democratic voters in VA was low, despite Obama, Biden, Harris and virtually every other Democratic luminary showing up in Virginia to rally the troops. 

The likelihood of Republicans winning back the House of Representatives in 2022 seems like a near-certainty if the election were held today.

Second, the dominant messages from Democrats – defeat Trump and managing Covid – are no longer working.  Terry McAuliffe tried to tie Youngkin to Trump, to little success.  The American public is tired of hearing about Covid, and candidates can’t run on it any longer. Democrats need a positive agenda that they can point to that might excite people. The stalled infrastructure and reconciliation bills certainly didn’t help as they gave a sense of a party arguing with itself rather than delivering results. 

Third, it pointed a path to a Republican future post-Trump.  Glenn Youngkin reminds many of Mitt Romney – a buttoned-up private equity executive who came across as moderate in terms of personality and social views.  Youngkin ran on education issues and curbing Democratic excesses – and that was enough to eat into the Democratic margin in suburbs.  Rural voters flocked to Youngkin in huge numbers.  A moderate Republican can retain the base while competing in swing districts, at least in Virginia. 

The results in Virginia, most of all, pointed to the fragility of any electoral results and the low loyalty voters have even after casting their vote.  Again, Virginia went to Biden by 10 points just months ago, and all of the signs have pointed to Virginia as a blue-leaning state as demographics have changed and suburbs expanded.  Yet Youngkin won.  The pendulum will keep swinging back and forth while people get more and more fed up. 

I can see very clearly the path to 2022 and 2024.  After that, it’s not clear what happens, because one of the products of this dynamic is that people grow more and more dispirited. 

A friend said to me, “The Democrats’ main emotional appeal seems to be fear.  But you can’t be afraid all of the time.  It wears off.” 

That’s as good a lesson as any to take from Virginia. 

Andrew Yang

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