【经济学人】牛市~各行各业竞相繁荣The bull market in everything
Prices are high across a range of assets.Is it time to worry?
各种资产的价格都很高。 是时候担心了吗？
In his classic, “TheIntelligent Investor”, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Streetsage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words:"margin of safety". The pricepaid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed,many things going wrong at once. In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclearbraggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding. Yet rarely have somany asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins（比特币）—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability.
在1949年首例出版的“智慧投资者”中，“华尔街圣贤”本雅明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）将他所谓的健全投资秘诀浓缩成三个字：“安全边际”。 支付股票或债券的价格应该允许人为错误，运气不好或者事实上很多事情一下子出错。在一个陷入困境的贸易羁绊和核扩散的世界里，这种建议应该是值得注意的。 然而很少有这么多的资产阶级 - 从股票到债券，财产到比特币（比特币） - 禁止这种无敌感。
Monetary: adj. 货币的；财政的
Sage: n. 圣人；贤人；哲人adj. 明智的；贤明的；审慎的，同saint
Distill: vt. 提取；蒸馏；使滴下 vi. 蒸馏；滴下；作为精华产生（等于distil）
Summarize：总结
Margin: n. 边缘；利润，余裕；页边的空白vt. 加边于；加旁注于
Edge：边缘；Remain：剩下；Profit：利润
Braggadocio: n. 自夸，吹牛；吹牛大王
Boast：吹牛
Tiffs: n.口角
Heed: vi. 注意，留心n. 注意到；留心到vt. 注意，留心
Invulnerability: n. 刀枪不入，不会受伤害
Vulnerability: n. 易损性；弱点
Delicate: adj. 微妙的；易碎的；清淡可口的
Foible:弱点；小缺点；癖好
Dear assets are hardly the product ofeuphoria. No one would mistake the bloodless run-up(急剧增长) in global stock markets, credit and property over the past eightyears for a reprise of the “roaring 20s”,（是说美国在上世纪二十年代（即一九二几年）, 当时美国经济社会一片繁荣，老百姓生活富足，国力强盛，由此出现了“兴盛的二十年代”一说。）or even an echo of the dotcom mania of the late 1990s. Yet only atthe peak of those two bubbles has America’s S&P (标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)); 500 been higher as a multiple of earningsmeasured over a ten-year cycle. Rarely have creditors demanded so littleinsurance against default, even on the riskiest “junk” bonds. And rarely haveproperty prices around the world towered so high. American house prices havebounced back since the financial crisis and are above their long-term averagerelative to rents. Those in Britain are well above it. And in Canada andAustralia, they are in the stratosphere. Add to this the craze for exotica,such as cryptocurrencies (see Free exchange), and the world is in the throes ofa bull market in everything.
尊敬的资产几乎不是欣欣向荣的产物。没有人会错过过去八年来全球股票市场，信贷和财产的无血的增长，重演“咆哮的20年代”，（说说美国在上世纪二十年代二几年），当时美国经济社会一片繁荣，老百姓生活富足，国力强盛，由此出现了“兴盛的二十年代”一说），甚至是20世纪90年代末网络狂躁的回响。只有在这两个泡沫的高峰期，美国标准普尔（Standard＆Poor's））; 500美元是在十年周期内测得的收益倍数。很少有债权人要求这么少的违约保险，即使是最危险的“垃圾”债券。而很少有世界各地的房价飙升至高。美国房价自金融危机爆发以来反弹，高于租金长期平均水平。那些在英国的人远远超过了他们。而在加拿大和澳大利亚，他们在平流层。加上exotica的热潮，如加密货币（见免费交易所），世界正处于牛市中的一切。
Euphoria: n.精神欢快，[临床] 欣快；兴高采烈；欣快症；幸福愉快感
Echo: vt. 反射；重复vi.随声附和；发出回声 n. 回音；效仿 APP: Echo
Dotcom: n. 网站
Mania: n. 狂热；狂躁；热衷
Craze: n. 狂热vi. 发狂；产生纹裂vt. 使发狂；使产生纹裂
Stratosphere :n. 同温层；最上层；最高阶段
Atmosphere:氛围，大气
Exotica: n. 新奇事物，异族事物
Novel: adj. 新奇的；异常的n. 小说
cryptocurrency:加密数字货币
Encrypt: vt. 将……译成密码
Throes :n. 阵痛；剧痛vi.使…痛苦
Where’s the beef?
Asset-price booms are a source of cheer,but also anxiety. There are two immediate reasons to worry. First, markets havebeen steadily rising against a backdrop of extraordinarily loose monetarypolicy. Central banks have kept short-term interest rates close to zero sincethe financial crisis of 2007-08 and have helped depress long-term rates bypurchasing $11trn-worth of government bonds through quantitative easing(量化宽松政策).Only now are they starting to unwind these policies. The FederalReserve has raised rates twice this year and will soon start to sell its bondholdings. Other central banks will eventually follow. If today’s asset priceshave been propped up by central-bank largesse, its end could prompt a bigcorrection. Second, signs are appearing that fund managers, desperate forhigher yields(高收益), are becoming increasinglyincautious. Consider, for instance, investors’ recent willingness to buyEurobonds issued by Iraq(伊拉克), Ukraine（乌克兰）and Egypt（埃及） at yields of around 7%.
牛肉在哪里？
资产价格上涨是一种振奋人心的因素，也是焦虑。有两个直接的理由担心。首先，在货币政策非常宽松的背景下，市场稳步上涨。中央银行自2007-08财政危机以来，短期利率维持在零水平，并通过量化宽松政策购买价值11亿美元的政府债券来帮助遏制长期利率。现在，他们现在是开始解除这些政策。美联储今年提高了两次利率，并将很快开始出售其持有的债券。其他中央银行最终会跟随。如果今天的资产价格由中央银行慷慨支撑，其最终可能会引发大幅度的调整。第二，出现迹象显示，高收益绝望的基金经理越来越不自觉。例如，考虑到投资者最近愿意购买伊拉克（伊拉克），乌克兰（埃及）和埃及（埃及）发行的欧元债券，收益率约为7％。
Backdrop: n. 背景；背景幕；交流声 background
Depress: vt. 压抑；使沮丧；使萧条
prop up: v. 支撑；支持
prop: n. 支柱，支撑物；支持者；道具；（橄榄球中的）支柱前锋 vt. 支撑，支持，维持；使倚靠在某物上
support, sustain: vt. 维持；支撑，承担；忍受；供养
largess: n. 慷慨的赠予；赠品
correction: n. 改正，修正 (correct) correction time 校正时间修正时间
amendment: n. 修正案；改善；改正constitutional amendments 宪法修正案
issue: n. 问题；流出；期号；发行物vt. 发行，发布；发给；放出，排出vi.发行；流出；造成…结果
publish：出版; leak：泄露
But look carefully at the broader picture,and there is some logic to the ongoing rise in asset prices. In part it is aresponse to an improving world economy. In the second quarter of this yearglobal GDP(Gross Domestic Product) grew at its fastest pace since 2010, as arecovery in emerging markets added impetus to longer-standing(长期存在的，长时间的) upswings in Europe and America. As our special report this weekargues, emerging-market economies have come out of testing times in far moreresilient shape.
但要仔细观察更广泛的情况，资产价格持续上涨有一些逻辑。 在某种程度上，这是对世界经济改善的回应。 今年第二季度，全球GDP（国内生产总值）自2010年以来增长最快，新兴市场的崛起也为欧洲和美洲长期存在，长时间的上涨带来了动力。正如我们本周特别报道的那样，新兴市场经济体已经出现在更具弹性的测试阶段。
Impetus: n. 动力；促进；冲力 power
Upswing: n. 上升；增加；向上摆动vi. 提高；回升；向上摆动
上升:Increase, rise
Argue：vi.争论，辩论；提出理由vt.辩论，争论；证明；说服
证明:Demonstrate, Prove 说服:Convince, Persuade
Resile: vi. 弹回；恢复原状；被撤销
Resilient: adj. 弹回的，有弹力的adj. 能复原的；有复原力的
Recover:恢复
More significant still is the behavior oflong-term interest rates. They have fallen steadily since the 1980s and remainclose to historic lows. And that underpins all sorts of other asset prices (seearticle). A widespread concern is that the Fed (联邦储备局theFederal Reserve System) and its peers have grossly distorted bond markets and,by extension, the price of all assets. Warren Buffett, the most famous discipleof Ben Graham, said this week that stocks would look cheap in three years’ timeif interest rates were one percentage-point higher, but not if they were threepercentage points higher. But if interest rates and bond yields wereunjustifiably low, inflation would take off (起飞，腾飞)—andpuzzlingly it hasn’t. This suggests that factors beyond the realm of monetarypolicy have been a bigger cause of low long-term rates. The most important isan increase in the desire to save, as ageing populations set aside(留出) a larger share of income for retirement. Just as the supply ofsaving has risen, demand for it has fallen. Stagnant wages and the lower priceof investment goods mean companies are flush with cash. All this suggests thatinterest rates will stay low by historical standards.
长期利率的行为更为重要。自二十世纪八十年代以来，它们已经稳步下降，并且仍然接近历史低点。而这支撑着各种其他资产价格（见文章）。广泛关注的是，美联储（联邦储备局，联邦储备系统）及其同业严重扭曲了债券市场，并扩大了所有资产的价格。本·格雷厄姆（Ben Graham）最着名的门诺·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）本周表示，如果利率提高了一个百分点，股票在三年内看起来便宜，但如果涨幅高出三个百分点，股价就会下跌。但是，如果利率和债券收益率是不合理的，通货膨胀将会起飞（起飞，腾飞），而且还是令人费解的。这表明超出货币政策范围的因素是长期利率下降的一个更大的原因。最重要的是增加拯救欲望，因为老龄人口（留出）的退休收入占更大的份额。正如储蓄的供应有所增加，对它的需求已经下降。公司工资水平低下，投资品价格较低，意味着公司资金充足。所有这些都表明，按照历史标准，利率将保持低位。
Underpins: vt. 巩固；支持；从下面支撑；加强…的基础
Enhance, Reinforce，
Peer: n. 贵族；同等的人；同龄人vi. 凝视，盯着看；窥视 vt. 封为贵族；与…同等
Gross: adj. 总共的；粗野的；恶劣的；显而易见的 vt. 总共收入 总额，总数
Distort: vt. 扭曲；使失真；曲解 vi. 扭曲；变形
Contort: vt. 扭曲；曲解vi.扭曲
Tort: n. 侵权行为
Disciple: n. 门徒，信徒；弟子
Unjustifiably: adv. 无理地
Just: adj. 公正的，合理的；正直的，正义
Justice: n. 司法，法律制裁；正义；法官，审判员
Jury: n. [法] 陪审团；评判委员会adj. 应急的
Justify: vi. 证明合法；整理版面 vt. 证明…是正当的；替…辩护
Stagnant: adj. 停滞的；不景气的；污浊的；迟钝的
Flush: n. 激动，洋溢；面红；萌芽；旺盛；奔流
vt. 使齐平；发红，使发亮；用水冲洗；使激动
vi. 发红，脸红；奔涌；被冲洗
adj. 大量的；齐平的；丰足的，洋溢的；挥霍的
Beware of the bull
Still the most dangerous, anti-Graham mottoof investing is “this time is different”. It would be daft to assume that assetprices must remain high come what may. Many hazards could derail the economyand financial markets, from a debt crisis in China to an American-led tradewar(贸易战争) or an outbreak of fighting on the Koreanpeninsula(朝鲜半岛). And when the next recession comes,policymakers have less fiscal and monetary ammunition to fight it than they hadin previous downturns. Prudence(人名) therefore suggestscaution.
小心公牛
仍然是最危险的，反格雷厄姆的投资座右铭是“这个时候是不同的”。 假设资产价格必须保持高位，可能会是愚蠢的。 许多危害可能会使经济和金融市场脱轨，从中国的债务危机向美国主导的贸易战争或朝鲜半岛的战争爆发。而当下一次经济衰退时，政策制定者与以前的经济衰退相比，战斗的财政和货币弹药也就少了。谨慎（人名）因此建议谨慎。
Beware: vi. 当心，小心vt.注意，当心；提防
Motto: n. 座右铭，格言；箴言
Daft: adj. 癫狂的；愚笨的；狂闹的
Hazard: vt. 赌运气；冒…的危险，使遭受危险n. 危险，冒险；冒险的事
Derail: vt. 使出轨vi. 出轨n. 脱轨
Rail：n. 铁轨；扶手；横杆；围栏vi. 抱怨；责骂 vt. 铺铁轨；以横木围栏
Fiscal: adj. 会计的，财政的；国库的
Ammunition: n. 弹药；军火vt. 装弹药于vi. 装弹药
One option is forcentral bankers to raise rates more enthusiastically and less predictably, tojolt financial markets and remind investors that the world is volatile. Yetthere are obvious perils with this course. The tightening might proveexcessive, tipping economies into recession. And with inflation in most bigeconomies below central bankers’ target, sharply higher rates are hard tosquare with(与...一致) theirmandate.
一个选择是让中央银行家更加热情地提高利率，而不太可预测地将金融市场震荡，并提醒投资者，世界是波动的。 然而这个课程有明显的危险。紧缩可能会过多，使经济陷入衰退。 而随着大多数大型经济体的通货膨胀率低于中央银行的目标，大幅上涨的利率很难与（与...一致）他们的使命相适应。
Jolt: vt. 使颠簸；使震惊；使摇动vi. 摇晃；颠簸而行n. 颠簸；摇晃；震惊；严重挫折
Volatile: adj. [化学]挥发性的；不稳定的；爆炸性的；反覆无常的n. 挥发物；有翅的动物
Peril: n. 危险；冒险 vt.危及；置…于险境
Mandate: n. 授权；命令，指令；委托管理；受命进行的工作vt. 授权；托管Command, Order
Instead, caution calls for(需要，要求) gradualism. To minimize disruption, the reversal of quantitativeeasing should be stretched out. The Federal Reserve has set a good precedent byproposing to reduce its bond-holdings at a leisurely pace and flagging thechange well in advance. When the time comes, its peers should follow suit. Ofthese, the European Central Bank faces the trickiest challenge, because it hasacted as, in effect, the backstop to euro-zone bond markets, a mechanism thatotherwise the currency bloc still lacks.
相反，谨慎地要求（需要，要求）渐进主义。 为了尽量减少干扰，量化宽松政策的逆转应该扩大。 联邦储备委员会已经建立了一个很好的先例，建议以悠闲的速度减少其债券，并提前确定变化。时间到了，同行们也应该跟随。 其中，欧洲中央银行面临最棘手的挑战，因为它实际上是对欧元区债券市场的支撑，一个否则货币集团仍然缺乏的机制。
Gradualism: n. 渐进主义；按步就班主义
Vegetarianism:素食主义
Leisure: n. 闲暇；空闲；安逸adj. 空闲的；有闲的；业余的
Bloc: n. 集团
But the main safety valve lies elsewhere,with banks and investors. Bitter experience has shown that debt-funded assetscan magnify losses, causing financial crises. For this reason, banks must beable to withstand any reversal of today’s high asset prices and low defaults.That means raising bank capital in places where it is too low, especially theeuro zone(欧元区), and not backsliding on strenuous“stress tests” as America’s Treasury (美国财务部)proposes.In the end, however, there may be no escape for investors from the low futurereturns and even losses that high asset prices imply. They and regulatorsshould take a leaf (效仿) out of “The intelligent Investor”, and make sure that they have a margin of safety.
但主要安全阀位于其他地方，与银行和投资者。 苦涩经验表明，债务资助的资产可以放大损失，造成金融危机。 因此，银行必须能够承受当前高资产价格和低违约率的任何逆转。这意味着在太低的地方筹集银行资本，特别是欧元区，而不是美国财务部所提出的艰难的“压力测试”。 然而，最后，投资者可能不会因为未来的回报甚低，甚至是高资产价格意味着的损失。 他们和监管机构应该从“智慧投资者”中抽出一份（效仿），并确保他们有安全边际。
Backslide: n. 倒退v. 堕落
Strenuous: adj. 紧张的；费力的；奋发的；艰苦的；热烈的
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