陌上美国推特
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文章对应英文版本附在文末，欢迎分享给说英文的美国朋友。通货膨胀怎么来的？以前写过帖子，按照跟MIT的Horton教授的讨论，7步形成的。简单来说，拜登-哈里斯上台之后，在疫情明明已经控制、经济步入强劲复苏下，又通过了两次疫情救济法案，超发货币万亿级别，一把印发了至少6万亿以上的美元。其中一个法案是哈里斯在国会50:50票情况下break tie，投下赞成票才通过的。而当时美国老百姓其实已经不太需要这种一人2000来块美元治标不治本的救济，更多需要的是社会全面开放、重新恢复生产，调整供需平衡。但是民主党的算盘不一样，他们得给2020年BLM暴动中被自己人打砸钱毁掉的城市补贴，安抚情绪才能继续暴力革命；需要给Green New Deal(GND)这种打着新能源旗号的**主义大政府项目输血，大跃进能源转型。得能源者得天下，大家这几年通过欧洲、中东战争也多少看到，能源政策一乱带来的后续全球动荡的级链反应了；需要借搞福利发钱，再膨胀一圈政府部门工作人员编制，好把DEI群体加塞进来，这都是长线投资D党的喽啰兵编制。于是乎，没有比炒作疫情救助更方便公饱私囊、携带巨大私货、养肥自己利益集团的这种美事了。哗啦！两个疫情救助法案就过掉了。相比之下，奥巴马09年上台通过的当时看着历史上第一天价的8000多亿美元救市、救三大汽车行业的方案，不过是细胳膊级别。此举在民主党又不积极促成全面社会开放、加快生产恢复下，等于是社会上流通的货物并没有同级增加，印的钱却大幅度增加，自然会带来物价飞涨通货膨胀。但是这还没有完，他们一上来还要砍掉传统能源开采，比如加拿大到美国的Keystone输油管道项目，这对70-80%的经济依然依赖石油的美国，更加导致油价飞升，把核心CPI又给霍霍催高的局面。这些都是通货膨胀的根本原因，而美国人民为民主党哈里斯-拜登的错误政策买单，4年里经历各种涨价，中产的美国梦再度萎缩。又是一种恶性循环，因为社会结构越是从纺锤型变成哑铃型，越容易催生民粹主义，在左就是为社*主义、**主义的肆虐铺路。所以短短四年，民主党已经从拜登那时候口口声声要beat党内的社*主义者Sanders的那个党，变成已经全力推风尘三笑哈的社*主义计*经济路线的前期美G党了。接下来把X上这个分析哈里斯要给食品控价的经济政策，将带来什么影响的帖子，给翻译一下，大家感受一下。https://x.com/robertmsterling/status/1824840348008391127?s=46&t=NxG7N8JYUIFpo7lYbHqNTQ
大家应该停止对卡玛拉减少食品通胀计划的过度反应，仿佛这会导致**主义、大规模饥荒和美国的终结。我曾在食品行业的并购部门工作过。以下是这个计划会带来的现实的逐步概述：2. 杂货店的净利润率仅为1-2%，如果供应商提高价格，它们将无法生存。因此，政府宣布食品生产商（如Kraft Heinz, ConAgra, Tyson, Hormel, 等）也不允许提高价格。3. 并非所有杂货店都是一样的。低收入地区的商店比高收入地区的盈利能力更低，因为前者主要销售低利润的预包装食品（“批发商店中心”），而非利润较高的新鲜产品如肉类（“商店外围”）。由于低收入地区的商店无法覆盖运营成本（记住，即使批发成本固定，它们的人工、电力、保险和其他运营费用也无法固定），杂货连锁店开始关闭这些店面。农村地区和低收入城市地区的食品沙漠问题加剧。4. 与此同时，食品生产商的利润率也迅速下降。它们的主要成本（原材料、能源和劳动力）没有固定，而减少的毛利润使得可用于支付运营成本、维护设施和再投资的现金流减少。5. 杂货连锁店的货架空间有限，开始重新调整店面布局（指那些没有关闭的店），出售更多不受价格控制的商品——从营养补充剂到厨房用品再到服装——而不是受价格控制的食品产品。你当地的Kroger或赛富威这些店开始看起来更像沃尔玛。6. 食品生产商停止生产低利润产品。杂货连锁店开始相互竞争以争取库存。由于它们不能通过提供更高价格来竞争（记住，这里生产商不允许提高价格，即使它们可以，杂货连锁店也没有足够的毛利润来承受价格上涨），它们通过付款条件等方面展开竞争。7. 小型杂货连锁店开始彻底倒闭，或被更大的连锁店如Kroger收购。除了无法覆盖固定成本的原因外，另一个主要原因是它们无法可靠地确保产品交付，因为生产商优先向更大的客户销售，这些客户能够利用其更强的资产负债表提供更好的付款条件。8. 较小的食品生产商——通常通过分销商销售，而不是直接销售给杂货连锁店——开始倒闭。因为这些生产商的价值链中有额外的步骤，而且它们的销售量较低，固定成本分摊的范围较小，所以它们的成本结构与主要食品生产商相比本质上处于劣势。当杂货店无法提高价格时，削减产品成本变得更加重要，而减少向较小生产商采购是一种容易实现的方法。9. 随着供应链崩溃，超市门前每天早晨开始排起长队。城市开始派遣警察巡逻商店停车场，食品生产商制定了向送货卡车派遣武装护卫的应急计划。10. 联邦政府宣布了一项计划，为各州提供区块拨款，用于购买和运营关闭的杂货店。美国农业部还接管了关闭的生产设施。11. 政府宣布所有关键食品成本——玉米、小麦、牛肉、能源等——的价格也将被固定，以阻止“投机者”剥削现在由政府运营的食品行业。12. 令人震惊的是，政府在运营地球上最复杂的行业之一时遇到了困难。整个食品供应链开始崩溃。13. **主义、大规模饥荒和美国的终结迅速接踵而至。
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02.英文原文
Inflation fuels the rise of left populism, but the answer is not a so**alist planned economy
If we examine inflation and the economy over the past four years, we can see that some fundamental changes are happening now. Inflation didn’t just happen by chance; it was the result of specific policy decisions.If we examine inflation and the economy over the past four years, we can see that some fundamental changes are happening now. Inflation didn’t just happen by chance; it was the result of specific policy decisions.After Biden and Harris took office, they passed two COVID-19 relief bills, even though the pandemic was under control and the economy was on a strong recovery path. These bills led to the printing of trillions of dollars—$6 trillion. One of these bills only passed because Harris cast the deciding vote in a 50:50 Senate.At that time, the American people didn’t necessarily need the $2,000 per person in relief. What was more crucial was the full reopening of society, stimulating production, and balancing supply and demand. But the Democrats had other priorities. They needed to subsidize the cities that were destroyed during the 2020 BLM riots by their own supporters, to pacify emotions and continue the revolution; they needed to fund the Green New Deal(GND), a socialist big-government project disguised as a renewable energy initiative, leading to an energy transition "Great Leap Forward." Control of energy means the world, as we've seen in recent years through the chain reactions of global instability caused by energy policy disruptions in Europe and the Middle East (video below). They also needed to expand government agencies to accommodate the DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) groups, turning them into the party’s long-term foot soldiers.(History flashback: In 2017, one world leader warned NATO leaders that the EU's heavy energy reliance on Russia was a potential disaster. Can you guess who?)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpwkdmwui3kThis overprinting of money, without a corresponding increase in goods, naturally led to rising prices and inflation. The situation was exacerbated when the administration cut traditional energy production, such as the Keystone Pipeline project. For an economy that still relies 75% or so on oil, this caused oil prices to soar and further driving up the core Consumer Price Index (CPI). These factors combined to create the inflation we’ve seen over the past four years. Biden-Harris did it.The middle class has borne the brunt, with the American Dream shrinking once again. This has also led to a further shift in the social structure from a spindle shape to a dumbbell shape, paving the way for increased populism and, potentially, the spread of so**alist and c**m*nist ideologies. In just four years, the Democratic Party has gone from Biden's claiming to beat the socialist Sanders to fully backing Harris’s so**alist, planned economy agenda.They created the crisis, but their solution pushes even further to the left. If Harris becomes president, it will only worsen the situation with no chance of reversing course.Share an excellent post explaining Harris’ food price cap.
https://x.com/robertmsterling/status/1824840348008391127?s=46&t=NxG7N8JYUIFpo7lYbHqNTQ
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