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刘扬声
Charles Liu Yangsheng
·太和智库高级研究员
·澳门城市大学中国与世界研究中心创始主任
·Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute
·Founding Director, Center for China and the World, City University of Macau, Macau, China
Introduction
The expansion of BRICS invites questions as to how the group will manage the inherent diversity of its members as it expands. The following is an interview with Charles Liu Yangsheng about the past, present, and future of BRICS Plus.
TIOSaudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Ethiopia joined BRICS on January 1, 2024, doubling its membership. What implications does this expansion hold for China? LiuThe expansion holds significant implications not just for China, but for the whole world. It marks a further development of China's vision for global affairs. For example, the expansion implies Global South countries are gaining more influence in global affairs. It represents a shift towards a new form of multilateralism, challenging the domination of a few major Western powers. Independent foreign policies are now being cohesively formed by multilateral institutions, such as BRICS Plus. So, in this case, what is good for the world is also good for China. TIOThe American unipolarity has lasted for decades, but the Western international institutions have to adapt to the emerging multilateralism. How do you think the West will react to the expansion? LiuThe Western reaction is certainly not enthusiastic, but there is nothing they can do. "BRIC" was a concept coined by Jim O'Neill, an economist at Goldman Sachs, in 2001. Now, BRICS Plus countries are cohesively united by their common interests. This shift challenges the traditional multilateralism seen in the G7 or G20, signaling the emergence of a counterforce of Global South and middle powers. In terms of GDP, BRICS Plus now matches the G7. The landscape of international multilateralism is evolving. TIOBRICS Plus represents a diverse grouping of cultures, economies, and agendas. This creates both opportunities and challenges. How can BRICS Plus countries maintain cohesion and harmony? LiuThe key lies in developing countries' common interests of stability, development, and improvement of living standards. These objectives transcend individual culture or social agendas. As long as the common interest remains the cohesive force, including resisting hegemony and improving living standards through economic development, trade, investment, and cross-border transactions, not only in terms of the trade of goods, but also the movement of people and ideas, unity will prevail. TIOThere's an interesting aspect of the expansion, which is the addition of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. As the Middle East is going through some changes, how will their participation impact the future of BRICS Plus? LiuFirst, they are energy powerhouses. Second, they are Middle Eastern powers. It is worth noting that Russia is a major energy producer as well, and Petrobras, an oil giant, comes from Brazil. The inclusion of these energy powerhouses from the Middle East, alongside existent energy producers in BRICS Plus, expands the scope beyond energy to commodities. In the future, there will be major suppliers of other commodities, such as minerals, joining BRICS Plus. This shift reflects a move away from the financial dominance of the US dollar to a new influence held by developing countries with tangible commodities. In Chinese, "currency" is translated as "Huo Bi" (货币). "Huo" (货) means goods, and "Bi" (币) means money. BRICS Plus is expanding its influence in "Huo," in this case, commodities and manufactured goods, versus "Bi," the US dollar. In terms of the Middle East, there is no question that a major transformation has started. For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia have restored a peaceful bilateral relationship after years of tension. Now, the entire Middle East is seeking unity and economic development. I believe the Middle East will become a more influential force on the global stage, as, for example, ASEAN countries have become. In the last decade, the economy of ASEAN countries has grown rapidly, but the next round of economic growth will happen in member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and possibly also in North African countries, which are also Islamic countries, such as Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. Therefore, the increasing unity and focus on economic development in the Middle East contributes to strengthening BRICS Plus. With potential additions from North Africa, the counterweight to former colonial powers will grow stronger. TIOArgentina's withdrawal from the planned entry into BRICS Plus has emerged as a wildcard. Is there an influence from the US? What does the renege mean for Argentina, BRICS Plus, and the greater world? LiuArgentina's withdrawal is an exceptional case. Unfortunately, this is nothing new to Argentina. Approximately a century ago, Argentina ranked among the top ten global economies, but it has downgraded itself to the lower echelons of the international economic hierarchy. Despite possessing abundant natural resources and highly fertile land for agriculture, the administration of Argentina has demonstrated shortcomings in effectively capitalizing on these assets. Now, Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, adheres to an extreme form of governance, aligning with certain ideologies promoted by some US politicians. This is anticipated to guide the country towards an uncertain path. So Argentina is really an exception. Despite this, it does not override the general trend of numerous countries expressing interest in joining BRICS Plus. There are over 30 countries waiting in line to join BRICS Plus, and more than a dozen countries have already submitted formal applications. TIOAs you said, there are over 30 countries waiting to join BRICS Plus. Looking forward, as you see it, what is the ambition of BRICS Plus, and what kind of an organization could it become? LiuWell, BRICS Plus countries have already established the New Development Bank in Shanghai, focused on financing infrastructure, industrialization, and other forms of development. In the journey of seeking a fairer, better form of globalization, the commonality among member states in economic development is just the first step. Taking trade as an example, it starts with the movement of goods, then people, and finally ideas. Eventually, all of this will take place among BRICS Plus countries more effectively and in a more accelerated manner. The economic commonality can be extended to geopolitics. BRICS Plus countries will also start to form a cohesive line of defense against US dominance. Many BRICS Plus countries' top leaders have learned to say "no" to hegemony, and to consider the interests of their own countries, as well as the common interests of BRICS Plus and the Global South. All of this is moving in a direction to forge a new positive global force. TIOIn the future, what uncertainties should BRICS Plus anticipate, especially with India becoming closer to the US? LiuIndia distinctly stands out as an aggressive participant utilizing every channel, every vehicle, and every opportunity to benefit itself, often at the expense of others. This situation is regrettable, as other BRICS Plus members exhibit less aggressive tendencies, displaying a greater consideration for the welfare of their partners. India, therefore, can also be viewed as an exception. While its association with the US raises concerns, India remains heavily reliant on Russia in energy and military areas. This dependence balances and counterbalances the extent to which India can align with the US. Besides, it's increasingly evident that promises made by the US may not materialize, exemplified by the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The initiative promoted by the US over the last year appears to have encountered obstacles and may never get off the ground. So, lining up with the US, India may find itself pursuing illusory objectives. In contrast, participation in BRICS Plus partnerships offers India concrete and substantive benefits. If India recognizes these advantages, as well as pressures from partner nations, it might adopt a more positive role within the framework of BRICS Plus. This interview was conducted by Lizzie Yin Xiaohong and Ian Zheng Yizhe. The above contents only represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.
TI Observer (TIO) is an online monthly English publication produced by Taihe Institute. TIO is dedicated to promoting transnational interaction and mutual understanding, thus bridging the gap of misunderstanding and bringing China and the world closer to each other.