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美国是怎样被打败的?

国际局势解读 昨天

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来源:富强的方向

     现在我们可以说,特朗普政府发动的经贸战,美国输掉了。


      为什么说美国输了?三个理由:

      第一,是美国发起的经贸战

      第二,美国没有占到便宜。

      第三,是特朗普宣布停战的。


      在日本大阪的G20峰会闭幕后的记者会上,美国总统特朗普表示,允许美国公司继续向华为出售零件。将不再增收新的中国出口美国商品的关税。

      日本大阪G20期间的“习特会”,实现了以下重要成果:重启两国经贸磋商、美方不再对中国输美产品加征新的关税、双方同意今后的磋商将以平等、相互尊重原则为基础。


       那么,到底是什么原因让美国输掉了自己发动的贸易战呢?

       总体而言,是五个方面的力量打败了特朗普:


      第一,是被意想不到的“中国决心”打败了。

      特朗普政府发动经贸战,实际上是为了遏制中国发展,直接目标是中国必须终止“中国制造2025”计划、“提高人民币汇率”、“开放金融市场”等等。美国以为只要大棒越来越大,出力越来越狠,如果500亿美元不行,那就提升到1000亿美元,再不行就2000亿美元甚至5000亿美元,中国迫于总体实力不如美国、迫于发展的需要,迫于对美国科技产品的依赖,最终必定屈服。


      但令特朗普政府没想到的是:面对美国发动并不断升级的贸易战,大棒的重量越来越大的情况下,中国表现出了强大而坚定的决心——“要谈,大门敞开;要打,奉陪到底。”

      这是美国万万没有想到的,错误地预判了形势和结果。

      这样一来,特朗普的信心立即掉了一半。

      第二,是被意想不到的“中国实力”打败了。

      经贸战就像一场战争,如果要攻打占领一个地区或者国家的话,总得先要攻下某个战略要地。

      华为,就是美国首先试图攻占的“战略要地”。

      因为华为世界第一的“5G+微波传输”,必将成为未来世界最重要的数据枢纽和神经元,一统世界数据信息传输江山。


      因此,华为成了特朗普发动经贸战的主要目标之一,宣布美国全面封禁华为,禁止美国企业与华为合作,禁止美国企业向华为出口产品。除此之外还不遗余力地向其他国家施压和游说,试图联合其他国家一道封禁华为。


      美国之所以这样做,是因为曾经拿中兴小试牛刀,大获成功。

      美国以为,这一招就能把华为置于死地。


      令美国没想到的是,华为早就意识到美国会有今天的举动,很快公布了“备胎计划”,早就有了自己的顶级芯片和操作系统。

      这下子,特朗普政府乃至美国那些政客们彻底懵了,甚至很多美国关联企业也懵了——没想到中国早就有了准备!


      再加上,中国的“稀土拳头”、“波音拳头”、“农产品拳头”等等组合拳,直击特朗普工业农业商业的“票仓”,正中特朗普选举要害,特朗普感受到了疼痛,信心又丢失了一小半。



169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。 171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。 172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。 173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。 175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。 176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧! 177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。 178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。 180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。 181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。 183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。 185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。 186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。 188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。 When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。 181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。 183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。 190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。 192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。 194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years

      第三,是被没有预见到的“本国力量”打败。

      就像笔者之前说的那样:美国在发动美中贸易战之前,既没有做到真正的“知己”,更没有做到“知彼”,错误地发动了经贸战,搞得自己骑虎难下。


      特朗普本人及其核心幕僚们过去几乎没有从政经历,都是一些“野路子智囊”,缺乏严谨的思维和战略决策能力,且幕僚们走马灯似的辞职、特朗普走马灯似地换将,他们怎么可能做到系统地研究和制定战略?


      最为致命的是:特朗普政府根本没有深入研究贸易战、对华为的禁令和增收关税会给美国的企业、民众带来什么样的影响。


      他们完全没有想到,经贸战的结果,受更重的是美国,而不是中国。为啥?因为中国是美国的第一大商品进口国,美国的通用商品特别是生活用品离不开中国,增税的结果是美国老百姓受伤。而中国有着全世界最大的内需市场,抗击贸易战的能力最强。中国不进口美国的商品,对老百姓生活不会造成看得出的影响,而美国如果不进口中国商品,美国老百姓连的生活将面临巨大困难。


      他们也没有想到,中国公司特别是华为公司,是美国芯片、软件商的最大客户,封禁华为,等于自我断送巨大的市场,让美国企业衰落,让大量美国人失业,让大量美国人生活负担加重,这完全就是自掘坟墓。


      他们还没有想到,美国企业不听政府的。因为这事关企业生死,事关民众的饭碗。于是,先后近千家美国企业分几次联名上书白宫要求终止贸易战。失去人心等于失去选票,失去选票就会失去总统宝座,因为特朗普刚宣布参加连任选举。


      特朗普政府这才明白,经贸战受到损失最大的恐怕不是中国,而是自己。本来华为公司就是美国芯片的世界上最大客户之一,一下子没了这个客户,华为自己生产,那不是等于让本来属于美国企业赚的钱,由中国自己赚去了?


      此时的特朗普不是懵了,而是从懵了状态中清醒过来了。

      所以,后悔了骑虎难下了

      第四,是被伤心透顶的“盟友力量”打败。

     美国不仅对中国发动经贸战,对俄罗斯发动经贸战,对伊朗发动经贸战,对邻居墨西哥发动经贸战,也对自己的铁杆跟班日本发动经贸战,还对长期的盟友欧盟国家等发动经贸战。


      这段时期的美国,就像一个神经病,见谁咬谁。结果大家都被激怒了,不仅采取了正当防卫,也进行了反击。

     此时的美国,反而成了被众人围殴的对象,无论身体怎么强壮,也顶不住四面打过来的拳头。

      美国经贸战的结果,是把自己搞得四面楚歌,被动挨打被围殴。


       第五,是被高超睿智的“中国外交”打败。

      就在美伊两国的“波斯湾战争”阴云密布之际,伊朗国防部长“低调”访华,只有短短几个字,新闻越简单,秘密越深奥。接下来,伊朗的态度越发强硬,即使愿意打仗也不愿意与美国坐下来谈判。更关键的是,伊朗竟然敢于首先开火击落美军价值上亿美元的顶级先进无人侦察机。伊朗这种不怕死的姿态,令美国顾虑重重,宁可丢人也不敢予以回击伊朗,足见美国的尴尬状态。

      还有,在波斯湾局势的敏感时期,中国与伊朗之间的国家——阿富汗总统高调访华,这又让美国浮想联翩……


       紧接着,中俄元首聚会俄罗斯,两国联合发表了两项重大声明,一是《中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦关于发展新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系的联合声明》,二是《中华人民共和国和俄罗斯联邦关于加强当代全球战略稳定的联合声明》。请留意两个文件名称里的两句新词语:发展新时代全面战略协作伙伴关系”、“加强当代全球战略稳定”。这意味着什么?意味着“准联盟”!普京还表示将为中国提供更多的油气和粮食。

     这意味着中国进口的很多油气以后不再走美国控制的马六甲海峡,意味着美国每年向中国出口的上亿吨粮食将会大大减少。 

      您说特朗普后悔不?


      这还不算,紧接着大哥又一路访问了位于中国、俄罗斯、伊朗三国之间的好几个“斯坦”国家,这更让美国忧虑了。


     接下来,在参加日本举办的G2O峰会之前,大哥高调访问朝鲜,这可是金正恩上台8年来,我方最高领导人首次访朝,是历史性的事件。朝鲜方面盛大欢迎场景和超高规格接待,可谓全世界第一。这背后的含义,必定令特朗普坐立不安。


      中方的这一举动,简直就像美国当年让日本彻底屈服的广岛长崎原子弹一样,角色被倒挂,把特朗普的信心和斗志彻底打掉了。

      于是乎,借着G20峰会,“朝鲜战争”结束,“板门店停战协议”签署了。真是“中美贸易战就是朝鲜战争的重演”啊!


     最有趣的是,特朗普在G20峰会期间宣布中美经贸战停战以后,立即就去了当年朝鲜战争停战协议的签署地——“三八线”上的板门店,与金正恩见面。这一状况太带有历史象征性了!

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