China has suddenly stopped buying foreign property 中国海外房地产投资大幅削减
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The Chinese pulled 84% of their overseas property investments globally in the first half of 2017 after the government began officially frowning on a "negative list" of foreign investments that were attracting Chinese cash, according to Morgan Stanley.
The Chinese were 25% of buyers of central London commercial property in 2016, a recent note to clients from Morgan Stanley's research team said.
The sudden absence of China explains, in part, the recent softness in the London property market. Residential prices in London began falling in the last few months.
In total, Chinese investment in foreign property globally was estimated at $10.6 billion in 2016. Morgan Stanley said it has dropped to $1.7 billion this year, a decline of 84%, and expects it to stay low next year.
London and the UK are particularly vulnerable to a pullback of Chinese investment. Last year, Chinese money was 25% of all central London commercial property purchases. Back in 2006, was only 1%. In the City area of London, however, almost all buyers are foreigners, with Asians making half of all purchases:
In the last few weeks, the China Banking Regulatory Commission began cutting off funding for foreign property investments. The situation will affect the US and Australia, too:
China was 30% of all Manhattan transactions this year so far. Commercial real estate prices there are down 55% year on year.
In Australia, the "residential sector is most exposed," Morgan Stanley says. China is 12-25% of commercial real estate transactions down under.
中国海外房地产投资大幅削减
去年年底开始，包括房地产、酒店、影院、媒体、体育俱乐部和非核心商业等列入“负面清单”。在房地产对外投资严控之下，中国的房地产ODI今年上半年锐减了82%。
大摩在最近的研报中指出，在美联储加息通道前，为了应对资本外流的压力和人民币贬值，该“负面清单”的监管预计将持续到2018年。此外，大摩还表示，2017年中国海外房地产直接投资可能从2016年的106亿美元下跌至仅剩17亿美元，同比跌幅达84%，2018预计在14亿美元水平。
中国(除香港地区)在2016年是美国商业地产领域最大的海外投资者，2017年至目前仍是第二大海外投资者，占据今年25%的市场份额。同时主要投资对象是各大主要门户城市的办公和酒店地产，其中四大主要市场(纽约、旧金山、芝加哥和洛杉矶)仍占据2017年近80%的市场份额。
值得一提的是，中国买家占据曼哈顿地区今年收购成交的30%，再次表明了国内买家对该市场的重要性。
大摩在报告中指出，美国主要城市不断刷新的商业地产价格正是来自海外资本流入的推动，因此现在随着中国这个最大的海外投资者资本流入的回撤，势必将对美国商业地产市场带来潜在的影响。
此外，大摩认为，商业地产价格已经到达峰值，正面临下行压力。而考虑到中国对曼哈顿市场的影响，对尤其是纽约地区相关的办公商业REITs大摩保持谨慎观点。