High-income country 中国经济前景光明 成高收入国家无多大悬念
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China will avoid the middle income trap and become a high-income country. The blue tone that China could get caught in the “middle income trap” has been speculated since the country’s economic growth slowed in 2012.
In 2016, the GDP per capita of China reached $8,000, a figure much higher than the threshold value of medium-high income countries. But there is still a gap between China and high-income countries.
Now the country is at a key stage to proceed into high-income territory, and recognizing the essence of the “middle income trap” and the prospect of the Chinese economy is of great significance.
The concept of the “middle income trap” was first put forward by the World Bank in 2006. It said that middle-income countries tend to have slower economic growth than both poorer and richer economies.
However, the concept is more of a statistical phenomenon than a reality, as it is mainly caused by increasing labor costs and insufficient innovation when an economy becomes a middle-income country.
Only 13 out of the 101 middle income countries and regions have become high-income economies from 1960 to 2008. That is a major part of the argument that says China will be caught in the trap too.
However, such statistics are not convincing, because not all of the middle-income economies failed to evolve into high-income countries.
China has not only kept a leading economic growth, but also maintained the health and stability of its economy. It is obviously at an opposite pole of the stalled development described by the middle income trap.
Cross-country comparison and econometrics show that a 4% growth is enough for China to evolve into a high-economy country, and China’s growth is way above that mark.
China has kept its growth between 6.7% and 6.9% for eight quarters. Researchers believe that the country is able to maintain its growth rate above 6% for the next decade.
According to international comparative studies, a stable government, market-oriented economic policies, high-quality human capital, openness, and social stability are the essential conditions for a middle-income country to evolve into a high-income one. China possesses all of them.
There is no doubt that China will eventually become a high-income country, and when should be the topic that deserves all of the attention.
中国经济前景光明 成高收入国家无多大悬念
自2012年我国经济增速换挡以来，有关中国经济可能落入“中等收入陷阱”的声音不时响起。我国人均国内生产总值2010年达到4561美元，迈入中高收入国家行列；2016年超过8000美元，明显超过中高收入国家门槛值，但离高收入国家尚有差距。可以说，我国当前正处于由中高收入国家迈向高收入国家的关键期。在这一时期，正确认识“中等收入陷阱”的实质和中国经济发展前景，对于保持战略定力、排除各种干扰、顺利迈入高收入国家行列具有重要意义。
“中等收入陷阱”是世界银行在2006年《东亚经济发展报告》中最早提出的。该报告指出：相对于更穷或者更富的国家而言，中等收入国家的经济增速较慢。之后，“中等收入陷阱”的提法受到了政界和学界的广泛关注。
究其实质，“中等收入陷阱”更多的是一种统计现象而不是一个严谨的学术概念，其主要含义是一国经济进入中等收入阶段后会面临一些与该发展阶段相关的特殊困难：与低收入国家相比不具有低劳动成本优势，与高收入国家相比缺乏创新和技术优势，因而在全球竞争中可能处于劣势。具体面临的问题可概括为三方面：第一，劳动力成本上升，原本具有优势的低端制造业的国际竞争力下降；第二，创新能力不足，发展动力减弱；第三，收入不平等加剧，经济活力下降。这些问题如果处理不好，就会阻碍中等收入国家发展，甚至使其长期陷于发展停滞。
认为中国会落入“中等收入陷阱”的主要论据是：从1960年到2008年，在101个中等收入国家和地区中，只有13个成功发展为高收入经济体。但这样一个统计结果并没有令人信服的解释力。因为其固然可以说明众多中等收入国家受到“中等收入陷阱”困扰，但同时也说明并非所有中等收入国家都会受困于“中等收入陷阱”。行胜于言。中国经济增速不仅长期位居世界主要经济体前列，而且近年来大力实施创新驱动发展战略，采取切实措施缩小收入差距，保持了经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定。这显然与“中等收入陷阱”所描述的发展停滞状态大相径庭。事实上，无论在理论层面还是在数据层面、无论规范研究还是实证研究都表明，只要能够保持中长期中高速增长，中国必然会迈入高收入国家行列。
跨国比较和计量经济学的实证分析表明，4%的中长期经济增速就足以支撑我国进入高收入国家行列，而我国经济的实际增速要高得多。我国经济增速已连续8个季度保持在6.7%至6.9%的区间。大多数研究认为，我国未来10年乃至更长时间仍可维持6%以上的年均经济增速。
国际比较研究表明，有效应对中等收入阶段面临的特殊困难、进而顺利迈入高收入阶段需要具备一些特殊条件：稳定的政府；市场取向的经济政策；高质量人力资本；保持对外开放；不出现社会动荡。这几个条件，中国显然全都具备。
可见，中国未来成功进入高收入国家行列并无多大悬念，更值得研究和关注的是进入高收入阶段的时间。保持经济中高速增长，是尽早进入高收入阶段的关键。为此，首先应营造良好的经济发展环境，不为各种“唱衰论”所左右。其次应不断完善社会主义市场经济体制，为长期持续发展提供良好制度保障。再次应加大自主创新力度，提高技术进步贡献率及全要素生产率。最后应深化对外开放，以开放促进改革发展。