World trade to fall by 9.2% in 2020 世贸组织预计2020年全球货物贸易量将下降9.2％

World trade to fall by 9.2% in 2020

The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday revised upwards its forecast for the decline in world merchandise trade at 9.2% in 2020 as against 12.9% drop projected earlier, based on a strong trade performance in June and July as lockdowns were eased and economic activity accelerated.

“The WTO now forecasts a 9.2% decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020, followed by a 7.2% rise in 2021…. Strong trade performance in June and July have brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020,” the Geneva-based organisation said in a report.

The forecast for next year is more pessimistic than the previous estimate of 21.3% growth, leaving merchandise trade well below its pre-pandemic trend in 2021.

”The current trade forecast of 7.2% for 2021 appears to be closer to the ‘weak recovery’ scenario than to a ‘quick return to trend’,” WTO said.

However, it cautioned that these estimates are subject to an unusually high degree of uncertainty since they depend on the evolution of the pandemic and government responses to it.

An automatic container dock in Qingdao, east China's Shandong Province

In April, the WTO had presented two possible scenarios for global trade. In an optimistic scenario, it said global merchandise trade could fall 13% in 2020 and rebound 21% in 2021. In a pessimistic case, the volume of global goods trade could drop as much as 32% this year with the possibility of a 24% increase next year. It had also said the decline is likely to exceed the trade slump brought by the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

However, on Tuesday, it said although the trade decline during the Covid-19 pandemic is similar in magnitude to the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the WTO said that the economic context is different and the contraction in GDP has been much stronger in the current recession while the fall in trade has been more moderate.

世贸组织预计2020年全球货物贸易量将下降9.2％

世贸组织发布全球贸易预测更新，预计2020年全球货物贸易量将下降9.2%，2021年全球货物贸易量将增长7.2%，但仍低于新冠肺炎危机前的趋势。今年二季度全球货物贸易量环比下降14.3%，为有记录以来最大降幅，但三季度已出现部分反弹迹象。亚洲地区的贸易量降幅将小于其他地区，其中出口预计下降4.5%，进口预计下降4.4%。世贸组织同时预计全球2020年GDP将下降4.8%，2021年将增长4.9%，但将高度取决于政策措施和疫情严重程度。

世贸组织副总干事易小准表示，在新冠肺炎大流行期间，全球GDP收缩幅度超过预期，而全球贸易下降幅度较为缓和。此前，世贸组织曾在今年四月对2020至2021年的全球货物贸易前景做出预测。当时预计，即使在乐观情况下，2020年全球货物贸易量也将下滑12.9%。而当前数据表明，6至7月全球贸易表现强劲，封锁措施有所缓解，加速了经济活动，2020年全球贸易降幅将没有此前预测的那么严重。

易小准同时指出，如果在接下来的几个月中，新冠肺炎疫情强劲复苏，仍然可能出现更糟的结果。新冠肺炎大流行后，全球经济面临的一大风险就是陷入贸易保护主义。根据最近预测，若新冠肺炎疫情复发导致进一步封锁措施，明年全球GDP增长将下滑2%～3%。与此同时，若能迅速利用有效疫苗，可推动明年产出提高1%～2%。

Tianjin: 2 new imported cases and 

1 new asymptomatic infection case

There were 2 new imported cases and 1 new asymptomatic infection case reported in Tianjin as of 7th of October.

The 104th imported case is a 31-year-old Chinese man who lived in Niamey, Niger. The patient arrived at Tianjin Binhai International Airport on October 2 by connecting flight (AF202) from Niamey to Paris, France. 

The 105th imported case is a 53-year-old Chinese woman who lived in Madrid, Spain. The patient took flight from Madrid, Spain, and arrived at Tianjin Binhai International Airport on October 4th.

The 64th asymptomatic infection case is a 26-year-old Chinese staff who lived in the Republic of Congo. The patient took flight from Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, and arrived at Tianjin Binhai International Airport on October 4th.

So far, of all the 105 imported cases, 101 patients have been discharged upon recovery. 4 patients still hospitalized.

-No imported suspected cases are undergoing test.

-No new locally transmitted cases or suspected cases were reported.

-4 asymptomatic infection cases are undergoing medical observation right now

天津新增2境外输入病例！新增1例境外输入无症状感染者！

10月4日18时至5日18时，我市新增境外输入新冠肺炎确诊病例2例（中国籍），累计报告105例（中国籍93例、美国籍3例、菲律宾籍7例、法国籍1例、乌兹别克斯坦籍1例），治愈出院101例，在院4例（其中轻型2例，普通型2例）。

第104例境外输入确诊病例，男，31岁，中国籍，近期居住地尼日尔尼亚美。该患者由尼亚美经法国巴黎转乘航班（AF202）于10月2日抵达天津滨海国际机场，入境时体温36.5℃，申报无症状。经海关检疫排查采样后，即转送至河北区集中隔离医学观察点。当日海关实验室新冠病毒核酸检测结果为阳性，即由120救护车转送至空港医院发热门诊就诊。经市专家组确诊为我市第63例无症状感染者，在空港医院进行隔离医学观察。入院后，患者出现发热伴咽部不适，2次测体温均为37.4℃。经市级专家组综合分析确定为我市境外输入新冠肺炎确诊病例（轻型）。即转至海河医院治疗。全程实施闭环管理。

第105例境外输入确诊病例，女，53岁，中国籍，近期居住地西班牙马德里。该患者由西班牙马德里乘航班（CA908）于10月4日抵达天津滨海国际机场，入境时体温36.4℃，申报无症状。经海关检疫排查采样后，即转送至和平区集中隔离医学观察点。当日海关实验室新冠病毒核酸检测结果为阳性，即由120救护车转送至空港医院发热门诊就诊，胸CT示右肺胸膜下区浅淡磨玻璃密度影。5日经市级专家组综合分析确定为我市境外输入新冠肺炎确诊病例（普通型），即转至海河医院治疗。全程实施闭环管理。

第64例无症状感染者，女，26岁，企业员工，中国籍，近期居住地刚果共和国。该患者由刚果共和国布拉柴维尔乘航班（MF8010）于10月4日抵达天津滨海国际机场，入境时体温36.5℃，申报无症状。经海关检疫排查采样后，即转送至蓟州区集中隔离医学观察点。5日海关实验室新冠病毒核酸检测结果为阳性，即由120救护车转送至空港医院发热门诊就诊。经市专家组确诊为我市无症状感染者，继续在空港医院进行隔离医学观察。全程实施闭环管理。

China first bright spot for Airbus since outbreak

People celebrate near an Airbus A330neo aircraft after its maiden flight event in Colomiers near Toulouse, France

China is the first major market where Airbus SE, the European plane maker, has seen a recovery in demand since the novel coronavirus epidemic, according to a top company official.

"We plan to deliver 100 aircraft to Chinese carriers this year and hope that the volume will account for 20 percent of our shipments globally," George Xu, CEO of Airbus China, said in an interview.

China received only 14 aircraft from Airbus during the first six months of the year. But in July and August, another 14 aircraft were received by China, marking a significant improvement in the pace of recovery. Due to the novel coronavirus epidemic, most of the carriers had faced difficulties in aircraft deliveries. In 2019, China received 173 aircraft from Airbus.

"The next few months will be a challenging time for Airbus as it races to meet the delivery goals in China and the Tianjin plant will work at full capacity to meet the requirements," he said.

The Tianjin facility, which has been in operation for more than a decade, serves as the first final assembly line of Airbus for single-aisle aircraft and the first completion center for widebody aircraft outside Europe.

The final assembly line of the Airbus A320 in Tianjin

Lin Zhijie, an aviation industry analyst and a columnist with Carnoc, a leading civil aviation website, said that given the current situation, the China market is more important to Airbus, and there is more room for growth. "The epidemic is basically getting under control in China and the Tianjin facility has fully resumed production. Aircraft deliveries to China will return to a regular level gradually," he said.

"The overseas air travel market has recovered to only 40 percent to 50 percent of the pre-pandemic level, and there is still a long way to go. Besides, the grounding of Boeing B737 MAX aircraft and the uncertainties over Sino-US relations could be an unprecedented growth opportunity for Airbus. And Airbus could even gain an overwhelming advantage if it seizes the chance," Lin said.

China's domestic air travel market is steadily picking up. Since August, the number of scheduled flights in the domestic market exceeded 13,300 daily, and the number of available seats exceeded 2.2 million daily, both numbers reaching nearly 80 percent of the levels recorded last year, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

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