全球化新阶段：更多区域循环
中英文实录如下：
唐晓阳: 实际上我有一个问题要问努鲁伊莎·安瓦尔，在我印象里，马来西亚的印象是非常多元化的；有一个口号叫，马来西亚才是真正的亚洲，因为你们有印度人、华人和马来人。这实际上也符合全球南方的特征，全球南方是非常多样化的，不同大陆上有不同的文化。但是，这些不同的文化如何能够形成一些共同的目标、共同的愿景而不产生显著的冲突呢？这是一个很大的挑战。实际上，我们知道很多国家的失败正是因为部落利益纠纷、党派斗争。我想听听您的看法，马来西亚是如何努力做到这一点的，如何克服这些分歧，形成一个共同的愿景。
Tang Xiaoyang: Actually I have a question for Izzah Anwar. My impression of Malaysia, is really diverse, since there was a slogan called Malaysia truly Asia, because you have the Indians, Chinese, Malays altogether. And that actually corresponds also to the characteristic of the Global South. All the Global South is very diverse, all different cultures across different continents. But how can all these diverse cultures form some common goals, common vision and without substantial conflict? That's actually a big challenge. Actually, we know a lot of countries they failed exactly because of some tribal interests, party struggle. And I want to get your opinion how Malaysia tried to do it and overcome these diverging opinions and form a common vision.
安瓦尔：您知道吧，教授，我是和我们人民正义党的50人代表团一起来的，您可以从代表名单上看到，我们有马来人、印度人和华人，我感到非常自豪，因为这是马来西亚的一个缩影。
Anwar: You know Prof, I came here with a 50 member delegation from my party, the people's justice party, and you can see from the list of delegates, we have Malays, Indians and Chinese and I feel very proud because it is a microcosm of Malaysia.
马来西亚是享有和平的多元化国家之一。我们于1963年成立马来西亚联邦，1957年获得独立。我认为，最重要的是，我们的党本身就是一个社会实验。我们为此付出了很大的努力，我不会说这件事办得很轻松，但是我们共同的价值观是正义原则，确保每个人都有平等的机会。这是一项艰巨的任务，因为这样你就必须把这些口号落到实处。
Malaysia stands tall as one of the diverse nations that have enjoyed peaceful times. We came to be and formed the federation in 1963, as Malaysia, gained independence 1957. I think, first and foremost, the party itself is a social experiment. we have worked hard at it. I'm not gonna say it's easy, but the common value that kind of unites as a principle is the principle of justice, to make sure you’ve got equal opportunity to everybody, and it's a tall order, right? Because then you have to kind of be able to plant the words into action, translate them into action.
我认为这就是我们重申使命的原因。最终，当我们谈到分配社会经济蛋糕时，无比重要的是，每个群体，三个主要种族，还有东马来西亚的人民，都感到他们能够受益于经济增长。我们经常听到关于外国直接投资的讨论，值得庆幸的是我们获得了数十亿美元的投资。
I think this is why we are reaffirming our commitment. And at the end of the day when we talk about the social economic pie, it becomes all the more important that every group, not just the three main races, but the people of east Malaysia, feel that they are able to harness and enjoy parts of economic growth. You hear FDI being bandied about. We received thankfully investments in the billions.
但是，我们面临的挑战是确保联邦政府或州政府能够证明这些投资确实改善了人们的生活。这不仅需要考虑人们工作是否有保障。我相信，社会保障在确保稳定性方面变得愈发重要。还有教育问题，我们有不同的学校，我们家老幺在中文学校上学，我的三个孩子都学普通话，不过老大老二学得不太好。我认为，这些是马来西亚的特别之处，也提醒我们，我们确实需要不时地积极解决问题，特别是来自社会经济压力的问题。
But again, our challenge is to ensure whether the governments at the federal or state level are able to showcase that these investments do improve your lives for the better. And this is a function of not just jobs with security, safety nets become all the more important, I believe, to ensure stability. Also the issue of education because we have different schools. My youngest goes to a Chinese school, all three learn mandarin, although the first two are not being very well with it. But so I think these are the things that kind of make Malaysia special but is also a reminder that from time to time, we do need to actively address concerns, especially stemming from socioeconomic pressures.
我不认为我是个专家，我只是幸运地争取到一位经济学家，我花了一年的时间才请来法蒂玛·凯里教授，我当时是国会的反对派议员，我邀请她来帮助我们在2021年新冠疫情最严重的时候制定多维贫困指数，因为我们想衡量选区最底层40%的家庭，他们在疫情最严重的时候面临什么样的困境。这不仅仅是有储蓄和收入是否够的问题，还关乎孩子们能不能上网，能否在线上接受教育。学校提供教育，并不意味着家长有足够的耳机、足够大的平板电脑供四个孩子共享。当然，此外还有获得医疗、保险和治疗的能力。
I wouldn't say, I was lucky enough to woo an economist. It took me a year to woo professor Fatimah Kari, because I was an opposition member of parliament then, and to make sure that she comes and help us in driving a multidimensional poverty index in the year 2021 at the height of covid, because we wanted to make sure we measure from the bottom 40% of households in my constituency, then what are the types of deprivation that they face at the height of a pandemic? It's not just about having enough money savings, post income. It is about do my children have access to internet so that they are able to be educated online. Just because the education is offered, doesn't mean that I have enough headphones or a big enough ipad to be shared amongst four kids, and then of course to healthcare, insurance and treatment.
对我来说，有不同的变量和指标帮助我们了解人们的生活状况。作为政府或机构，当他们面临困境，你如何满足人们的需求?我不是说让我们忘记新冠疫情曾经发生过，我们无法回到过去的常态，现在有点像是后新冠世界。如果我们忘记了教训，那么我们作为领导者还有什么用呢?我不是研究贫穷的专家。我只是找到了合适的专家和我一起做这件事，我认为这对对于一名政治家和政策制定者来说很重要。
So for me, there's different variables and indicators help us plug in. How do you as government or agencies plug in the needs of people when they deprived? and I didn't want us to forget the pandemic, there's no such thing as going back to the old normal. It is kind of like post pandemic world. If we forget the lessons that we were taught, then what good are we as leaders? I'm not an expert of poverty. I got the right expert to be with me which I think is important for a politician and policy maker.
恩卡韦尼：首先我必须说明，南非的减贫经验得益于巴西、马来西亚、中国和墨西哥的经验。我们做了大量的工作，研究这些国家以及他们是如何处理贫困问题的。在南非，我们有一个全面的社会保障体系。
Ngcaweni: So first I must state that the South African experience of poverty alleviation benefited from the Brazilian experience, the Malaysian, the Chinese as well as the mexican experience. We did a lot of work studying these countries and how they were dealing with poverty. We have a comprehensive social security system in South Africa.
然而，贫困线没有上提，原因在于实体经济的发展，我们创造就业机会的能力非常有限。
However, the reason why the poverty line is not reversing, is because of what is happening in the real economy, our ability to create jobs is very much limited.
最重要的是，人力资本发展是扭转贫困的最有效途径。特别是作为全球南方国家，我们必须共同努力，培养人的能力，培养年轻人的技能，这样他们才能找到工作。我认为，中国正在经历“第三次开放”，包括向先进制造业等领域进军，生产高附加值产品。我昨天看了一些统计数据，自2021年以来，中国出口了16种以前没有出口过的新产品，而且这些都是高附加值产品。那么问题来了，中国在2000年生产的那些低附加值产品，现在都转移到哪里去了？世界仍有低附加值产品的需求，有些生产工厂去了越南等地。
And most importantly, the most effective way of reversing poverty in society is human capital development. We've got especially as a Global South, we must take a collective effort of building human capabilities, skilling young people so that they can find work. As China goes through, what I call it, a 3rd opening up. China is going to create 3rd opening up which involves moving into advanced manufacturing and so on. So we are now into high value products. I was looking at statistics yesterday. China since 2021 is now exporting 16 new products that it was not exporting before, and all of them are high value add. So the question is, those low value product that China was manufacturing in 2000, where have they moved to? Because they still consume, some are going to Vietnam and elsewhere.
问题是，随着中国向先进制造业飞跃，全球南方国家有机会通过创造就业机会来解决贫困问题，因为其中一些低附加值产品可以转移到全球南方生产。我认为，这样才能真正解决全球南方的贫困问题。
So the issue is, as China makes this leap into advanced manufacturing, there are opportunities for the Global South to address poverty through creating employment because some of these low value product can then be moved and be produced in other territories in the Global South. And that is how I think we can do a real dent in dealing with poverty in the Global South.
唐晓阳：中国以前的产业，那些旧式的、低附加值的产业何去何从，除了东南亚的柬埔寨、越南和泰国，甚至还有印度，有些甚至可能是墨西哥。但是实际上，只有非常有限的工业转移到了非洲。这主要是因为目前在全球市场上，劳动力成本在国际贸易中所占的比重越来越小。更重要的是时间、物流，以及整个供应链。
Tang Xiaoyang: Regarding where China's former industries, this old style, low value added industry sectors, goes, a part goes to southeast Asia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand, and also even India, and some may even go back to Mexico. But what's the problem is, indeed, a very limited amount of industry went to Africa. That's mainly because currently, actually, I would say for the global market, labor costs, they are playing smaller and smaller portion in the global trade. It's more important about time, about the logistics, about also supply chain, the whole supply chain.
在这种情况下，即使在全球南方国家之间，也存在着不平等，它们处于不同的发展阶段。我认为我们在非洲面临很多挑战。我建议，在非洲真正做到出口全球市场前，非洲可以建立自己的市场。这实际上是很多中国公司正在做的事情，印度人和中东人也在做。他们在非洲投资数字领域。他们甚至在非洲发展绿色能源、绿色汽车。尽管这可能只是开始，质量可能不如那些出口到欧洲和发达经济体的产品。但至少正在建立起非洲自己的技术和市场，以及劳动力。
In that case, even among the Global South, there are the inequality in different stages, they are at different development stages. I would say in Africa that we face a lot of challenges there. I would suggest that actually before Africa can really export to global market, actually Africa can establish their own market. That's actually what I see a lot of Chinese companies they are doing right now, but also Indians and Middle East, they invest in digital sector in Africa. They also even assemble green energy, green cars in Africa. So that although this may be at the beginning, the quality is not as high as those who are exported to the Europe and to advanced economy. But at least actually this is building up Africa's own technology and also their market, their labor force.
因此，我认为在全球南方国家，我们将一方面看到各国发展程度更趋同。另一方面是全球化的新阶段，我们会看到更多的地区循环。因为当下，与第一轮更自由的全球化不同，第一轮全球化假设自由市场适用于每个人，随后会产生比较优势，实际上形成一种等级结构。你们关于全球南方的讨论，让我觉得，实际上每个国家都想要自主权，想要发展自主力量、技术以及发展。我们需要在一定程度上牺牲这种自由市场心态，更强调政治上的自给自足。同时也要进行交流融合。实际上，我认为这就是我看到的全球化的新版本，它将更加多元化。
So therefore I think in the Global South, we will see on the one hand, some more global convergence. Second, at the new stage of globalization, we'll also see some like more regional cycle, because people today unlike the first round in this more liberal globalization, they are just assuming the free market for everybody and then you have this comparative advantage, and actually it's a hierarchical structure. I think according to what I hear from you and also from the Global South, actually every country wants their own autonomy, wants their own strength, technology and development. We will need to have also a kind of sacrifice a little bit this free market mentality in favor of some like political self sufficiency. But at the same time also exchange and then converge together. This is actually what I see it from the new version of globalization, will be more multifaceted.
（编译：李泽西、杨昕妤/ 视频：李肇阳）