Club点评：巴以冲突和俄乌冲突一度传来和平讯号：乌克兰面临“被迫谈和”的可能性；巴勒斯坦十四个派别签署《北京宣言》，为团结统一的巴勒斯坦国打下了坚实的基础。然而，过去两周，局势再度陷入动荡：先是哈马斯最高领导人哈尼亚在伊朗遭以色列暗杀，接着是乌克兰攻入俄罗斯领土。两个冲突都面临升级和溢出风险。8月9日，清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员周波在香港南华早报发表题为"In Ukraine and Gaza, China’s great power comes with great responsibility"（《在乌克兰和加沙，中国应承担大国责任》）的评论。
周波指出，从“摸着石头过河”到“海床深不可及”，中国外交正在塑造全球和平历史。中国在讲和促谈方面有独特优势，应继续发挥积极作用。
南华早报截图
历史大多是平淡无奇的，但却因其非凡之时而被铭记。对于研究中国外交的历史学家来说，中国成功修复伊朗与沙特阿拉伯这对宿敌的外交关系，可能会作为一个转折点被铭记。巴勒斯坦十四个派别签署的《北京宣言》应该更令人瞩目——在这个最动荡的地区，中国成功地使特立独行的各派达成了一致，至少暂时如此。成为和平缔造者的先决条件是各方都信任其中立，更准确地说，信任其不偏不倚。大国的中立通常不太可靠，因为按照国际关系的现实主义理论，出于自身利益的考虑，大国可能以自身利益为导向而改变世界力量的分配。这就是为什么提到可靠的调解方时，人们通常会想到像挪威、瑞士和瑞典这样的中等强国。但中国与众不同。中国不像英国或法国，没有作为殖民者的历史包袱。中国与俄罗斯不同的是，不需要通过武力来维持其势力范围，因为中国的影响力，尤其是在全球经济中的影响力，已经无处不在。中国与美国不同的则是，中国没有通过霸权或联盟来掌控世界的野心。近几十年来，中国在海外的所有军事行动，无论是维和、打击海盗还是灾难救援，无一例外都是人道主义性质的。如果说中国在中东事务上已深度参与，那么在乌克兰问题上，中国则尽力在两个交战的友邦间寻求平衡。
7月23日北京“和解对话”闭幕式（图源：新华社）
在联合国谴责俄罗斯的决议中，中国几乎从未投过反对票或否决票，而只是弃权。以美国为首的北约向乌克兰提供了全面的军事支持，而北京却没有向莫斯科提供任何军事援助或武器。诚然，中国与俄罗斯的贸易帮助其规避了一些西方制裁的后果，但这种贸易在战前就已存在，且没有违反任何国际规则。同时，去年乌克兰最大的贸易伙伴仍然是中国，贸易额约为129 亿美元。中国的十二点和平计划以及与巴西联合提出的六点建议能否奏效还有待观察。毕竟，中国并不是唯一一个提出和平计划的国家，而任何和平计划的实现都须以停火为前提。眼下，停火似乎遥遥无期。俄罗斯必须完全控制乌东四州才能宣布胜利，而得到了西方全面支持的乌克兰则有充分的理由不放弃领土。然而，没有战争会永远持续下去。乌克兰军队正逐渐失势，美国也在为总统大选做准备，这可能会从根本上改变西方对乌克兰的支持，在此背景下，基辅可能会发现必须向北京伸手求助。乌克兰外长库列巴（Dmytro Kuleba）在俄乌冲突全面爆发后的首次访华期间表示，“乌克兰的公正和平”符合中国的战略利益，同时中国作为“全球和平力量”的作用至关重要。中国至少可以在三个方面提供帮助。首先，它可以促成俄乌之间的停火对话。俄罗斯并未受邀参加6月在瑞士举行的和平峰会，而中国也未出席。如今，乌克兰总统泽连斯基呼吁在一个全球南方国家举行下一次和平峰会，并暗示可能邀请俄罗斯参加。这个全球南方国家会是中国吗？如果交战双方同意，中国应该愿意成为东道主。
8月12日，中国外交部发言人就乌克兰军队进入俄罗斯领土答记者问 中方呼吁各方遵守局势降温“三原则”（图源：央视新闻）
其次，中国可以与其他大国一起为停战提供集体安全保障，这是停火后最有可能出现的情景。没有这种保障，乌克兰永远无法确信俄罗斯会满足于已吞并的领土，而俄罗斯则会担心这些被吞并的地区会变成另一个阿富汗，乌克兰战士可能会扮演20世纪80年代阿富汗抗苏圣战者的角色。其他问题的出现不可避免。如果乌克兰不得不放弃部分领土，新边界将划在哪里？有争议的领土是否会被置于国际托管之下，并进行公正的公投，以便居民表达他们的意愿？是否会允许维和部队监督停火线？这些问题都无法由俄乌双边解决。它们需要联合国的参与以及中美大量的合作。如果俄罗斯会听从任何国家的告诫，那个国家必然是中国。而美国的责任就是确保乌克兰的配合。第三，中国比其他任何国家都更有能力帮助乌克兰或加沙进行战后重建。去年3月，世界银行估计乌克兰基础设施的重建和恢复将耗资4110亿美元，超过乌克兰2023年国内生产总值的两倍。据联合国称，重建加沙至少需要400亿到500亿美元，仅重建被毁的房屋就需要至少16年时间。虽然谁将为乌克兰和加沙的重建买单仍是一个悬而未决的问题，但中国在基础设施建设方面的能力首屈一指，毫无疑问可以提供巨大的帮助。有趣的是，传统上追求经济利益并淡化自身安全角色的中国，现如今在欧洲和中东事务上开始发声。当中国在20世纪70年代末开始改革开放时，采取的是“摸着石头过河”的策略。现在，中国已从江河涉足大海，大海深不可及，但必须义无反顾，奋勇前进。成为一个负责任的全球大国，中国有着沉甸甸的责任。
In Ukraine and Gaza, China’s great power comes with great responsibilityHistory is mostly made up of the mundane but remembered for the remarkable. For historians of Chinese diplomacy, China’s success in restoring diplomatic ties between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia might well be remembered as a turning point. The signing of the Beijing Declaration for unity by 14 Palestinian factions should have raised eyebrows further – in a most volatile region, China has succeeded in herding the cats, at least for a while.Can China build on these to become a global peacemaker?The precondition to being a peacemaker is being trusted for neutrality or, more precisely, impartiality. The neutrality of great powers is not normally very reliable because, given the realism of international relations, self-interest could drive them to alter the distribution of world power in their favour. That is why when it comes to honest brokers, people often think of middle powers such as Norway, Switzerland and Sweden.But China stands out. Unlike Britain or France, it has no historic burden of being a coloniser. Unlike Russia, which would use force to maintain its spheres of influence, China needs no such spheres as its influence, especially in the global economy, is ubiquitous. And unlike the United States, China has shown no missionary zest to police the world through hegemony or alliance. All of China’s military operations overseas in recent decades, whether in peacekeeping, counterpiracy or disaster relief, have been invariably humanitarian in nature.If China has waded into deeper waters in the Middle East, then in Ukraine, Beijing has tried its best to strike a balance in a war between two of its friends.
7月22日，在加沙地带南部城市汗尤尼斯，人们逃离家园。巴勒斯坦加沙地带卫生部门22日发表声明说，以色列军队当天轰炸加沙地带南部城市汗尤尼斯，造成至少70人死亡、超过200人受伤（图源：新华社）
It has almost never voted against or vetoed any of the UN resolutions condemning Russia, but rather only abstained. While the US-led Nato has provided full military support to Ukraine, Beijing has provided no military aid or weapons to Moscow. True, China’s trade with Russia has helped it skirt Western sanctions, but the trade went on before the war and none of it violates international rules or regimes. Last year, Ukraine’s largest trading partner remained China, with a trade revenue of around US$12.9 billion.It remains to be seen how China’s 12-point peace plan and its six-point joint proposal with Brazil might work. After all, China is not the only country that has tabled a peace plan, and all peace plans rest on the precondition of a ceasefire.But none is in sight. Russia must gain full control of the four annexed regions in Eastern Ukraine to be able to declare victory while a Ukraine fully supported by the West has every reason not to relinquish territory.Still, no war can last forever. As Ukrainian forces lose ground and the US gears up for a presidential election that could fundamentally change Western support for Ukraine, Kyiv may find it imperative to reach out to Beijing.During his first trip to China since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said “a just peace” in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interests and that Beijing’s role as “a global force for peace” is important.Beijing can help in at least three ways. First, it can facilitate a ceasefire dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia was not invited to the peace summit held in Switzerland in June and China did not attend. Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a second peace summit to be held in a Global South country, and suggested that Russia could be invited. Could that Global South country be China? Should the warring parties agree, Beijing could well be the willing host.
7月24日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在广州同乌克兰外长库列巴举行会谈（图源：外交部网站）
Second, China could, with other major powers, help provide a collective security guarantee for an armistice, the most likely scenario so far after a ceasefire. Without such a guarantee, Ukraine can never be sure that Russia will remain content with what it has annexed, and Russia would worry about the annexed lands becoming another Afghanistan with Ukrainian fighters playing the role of the 1980s mujahideen.Other questions are bound to crop up. If Ukraine has to give up some of its territory, where will the new border be drawn? Will the contested territory be put under an international trusteeship with proper referendums so residents can state their preferences? Will peacekeeping forces be allowed to monitor ceasefire lines?None of these issues can be bilaterally resolved by Moscow and Kyiv. They demand United Nations involvement and a large dose of US-China cooperation. If Russia listened to anyone, it would be China. The onus on the US, then, is to secure Ukrainian cooperation.Third, China is in a better position than any other country to help with post-war rehabilitative reconstruction, be it in Ukraine or Gaza. In March last year, the World Bank estimated the cost of the reconstruction and restoration of Ukraine’s infrastructure at US$411 billion, more than double its 2023 gross domestic product. According to the UN, reconstructing Gaza will need US$40-50 billion at least, with rebuilding lost homes alone taking a minimum of 16 years.While who will pay for reconstruction in Ukraine and Gaza remains an open question, China’s capabilities in infrastructure-building, which are second to none, can most certainly help.It is intriguing to see how Beijing is starting to have a say in Europe and the Middle East where it has traditionally pursued economic gains and downplayed any security role. When China started reforms in the late 1970s, it was “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. It is now wading into the ocean and there is no seabed it can touch nor can it turn back. Being a responsible global power comes at a price.