金砖机制发展四大关键问题（中英对照）
Club提要：商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院美洲与大洋洲研究所副所长周密在谈到金砖合作时强调，金砖机制是推动下一代全球化的重要力量，喀山峰会在即，金砖发展应把握四个关键问题：向市场和个人传递有效信号、金砖国家合作增强规模效应、成员国间实现优势互补、增强协调与合作战略思维。
周密在“金砖国家与多极世界2024对话会”上发言（图源：北京对话）
我对金砖国家研究多年，这是一个非常有趣的一个议题。我还记得大约十多年前，我去莫斯科讨论金砖国家之间的关系，并尝试探讨可能的合作方向。
我们当时提出了一些建议。那个时候我们还没有建立新开发银行，我们建议也许可以采取更多措施来改善金砖国家之间的合作。我认为讨论金砖国家是非常有意义的，因为它不是一个具有约束力的机制，同时它确实也可以使所有利益相关者能够共同承担责任，做出更多贡献。
在过去的十多年里，我看到了金砖国家在协调方面的许多进步，它的吸引力也有所提升，这非常重要。不过今天，我想分享四个问题。这四个问题是在我思考金砖国家未来的行动方向以及这些措施是否有可持续性时浮现在脑海里的。
第一个问题是，金砖国家合作的动机是什么？正如奥列格所指出的，金砖国家汇聚了一些高层领导，但这些政府间的感受和理念是否能够传递给市场和个人，这一点至关重要。我们需要建立一些机制，不仅吸引更多人参与，而且要确保这些合作不仅服务于学术研究，更要惠及普通民众。
比如说，中国曾提出在金砖国家之间达成自由贸易协定，那么我们是否可以讨论这种合作关系？或许它并不一定是以自由贸易协定的形式存在，也可能是区域贸易协定或单一市场的形式，这样我们可以通过设计更好的机制来增强合作。我们都知道，许多金砖国家有各自特殊的关税系统和海关系统。而且无论是发达国家还是发展中的经济体，贸易便利化都至关重要。那么如何保证我们之间的贸易能够快速、便捷，并减少不确定性？这是我们可以共同努力的一个方向。因此，让市场相信这种合作不是短期的，而是为几十年甚至更长时间的持续发展做准备这一点至关重要。
第二个问题是，金砖国家之间的经济合作是否具备规模经济效应？金砖国家拥有庞大的人口，但我们不能简单地将这些人口数量相加。我认为我们需要对人口进行深入分析，并与能够实现的目标和希望实现的目标建立更有效的联系。如果我们能够实现规模经济效应，它的特点是什么？它相较于世界其他国家和经济体的优势又是什么？因此，在我看来，我们需要考虑几个关键因素，比如相关要素、环境和模式。对于金砖国家，我们或许可以从一些大家都希望发展的领域入手，尝试将它们整合起来，看看这些国家之间是否存在某些共同点或联系。
这不仅仅是空谈，如大家所知，“一带一路”倡议的主要目的是向市场发出信号。如果各国政府能够明确表示我们将加强某些领域的供应链或产业链，那么市场就会更加有信心从而提供更好的支持。比如中国的太阳能电池板产业，大约10年前，欧盟和美国就开始对其进行干预，但现在它依然具有很强的竞争力。我认为其原因并不是政府给予了行业大量补贴，而是政府向市场发出了中国坚定发展这一领域的明确信号。这也促使了该领域获得大量的投资，并通过经济规模推动了创新。因此，我认为对于金砖国家来说，我们确实有足够的市场来支持规模经济。
第三个问题是关于金砖国家之间的互补优势能否得到加强？如大家所知，一些国家拥有资源，一些国家拥有制造业，而其他国家则专注于服务业。我们可以朝着这个方向做更多努力。我不得不说，竞争的存在不可避免。我们看到许多贸易争端发生在发展中国家之间，甚至在金砖国家内部也存在这种情况。但我认为，竞争并非坏事，是可以通过加强各国之间的合作互动来实现积极效果的必要步骤。
最后一个问题，是关于金砖国家之间的协调与合作。这种合作是否能够有效应对我们自身的问题、地区问题或全球挑战？当今世界面临着多重压力，包括减贫、气候变化、物流以及社会差距，还有公平性的问题。
因此，我认为金砖国家之间的合作不应局限于单一的模式，可以尝试寻找一些最佳方案，这些方案可以被其他国家学习和借鉴。因此，我认为这对于我们处理差异、充分利用资源至关重要。总而言之，我认为金砖国家之间的合作是推动下一代全球化的重要力量。我们知道全球化存在许多缺陷，许多国家希望改进这一点。而金砖国家的合作将成为一个独特的存在，并带给人们更多的希望。
以下为英文原文：
Actually, it's a very interesting topic since I have been doing the research on the BRICS for so many years. I still remember that maybe more than 10 years ago, I went to Moscow to discuss about the relations between the BRICS andwe tried to discuss what the possibilities are.
So We have some of these suggestions. During that time, we still haven't established aNew Development Bank, and we suggested maybe we can do more to improve the collaboration among the BRICS countries. I think it's really nice for us to talk about the BRICS, because it's an unbinding mechanism, at the same time it has some kind of mechanism which all these stakeholders can do together, to share the responsibility and to improve their contribution to that.
In the past more than 10 years, I really see many improvements in the BRICS coordination, and its attraction has also improved. So it's a very important thing. But today I want to share some of my questions, especially four questions. These four questions came into my mind when I was thinking about what BRICS can do and whether it can be sustainable.
The first question is that what is the motive of BRICS corporation? We know that BRICS has, like Oleg has mentioned, some of the leaders from the top level, but whether this feeling and conceptions among the governments can be felt by the market or individuals. I think it's really important because we need some mechanism to try to attract more people, try to not only work for the academia research, but also for the benefits of the people.
Like China has proposed suggestions like the free trade agreements among the BRICS countries, whether it is possible for us to discuss about the relations. Maybe it is not in the form of FTA,or in the form of regional trade agreements or single market, but we are able to do more to have a better mechanism design, for the better coordination. We know that many of the BRICS countries have their own special tariff systems, customs systems. Also, it is very true that no matter you're from developed countries or developing economies, trade facilitation is very important. So how can we guarantee that the trade among us will be fast? Will be easy? Will be with less uncertainties? That would be one of the things we are able to do among the borders, and also beyond the borders. So it's really important for us to try to make the market to believe that the corporation is not for just several years, but for decades or even longer.
The second question is whether economic cooperation among the BRICS countries have the effect of the scale of economy. We know that BRICS have so many populations, but we cannot just add them up. I think that the population need to be analyzed and trying to make a better connection based on what we can do and what we want. If we have the scale of economy, what is the characteristic? And what is the advantages compared with other countries and economies in the world? We need to consider about several issues in my understanding, like the factors, like the environment, and also the patterns. So for BRICS countries, maybe we can start from some of the potential major sectors that all of us want to develop, and try to put it together, and try to find out whether there are some relations among these countries.
It is not only from just a talk, because we know that for the Belt andRoad Initiative, the main idea is trying to give the signals to the market. If the governments can see that we are going to develop them and trying to strengthen the supply chain or industrial chains in certain sectors, the market will be more confident in doing the support. Like the example of China’s solar panel industries, we know that has been interfered too much by the EU, by the U.S. maybe 10 years ago. But now it still has a very strong compatibility. I think the reason is not because that the government have given so many subsidies to the sector. It is because the government has sent a very clear signal to the market that China is going to develop our own market for the sector. And it has boosted so many investments in the region and tried to improve the innovation based on the scale of economy. So I think that for the BRICS countries, we do have enough market to support the scale of the economy.
The third question is about whether the complementary advantages among the BRICS countries can be strengthened. We know that some countries have its resources, and some countries have manufacturing, while services in others. We can do more to try to improve that. I have to say that competition is there. We see many trade disputes are happening among the developing countries, even for the BRICS. But I think the competition is not a bad thing. It is a very necessary step for us to have a good effect based on the attitudes of the government and trying to improve the associations’ interactions.
So I mean that the complementary can be improved instead of just trying adjust the state over there. Because even if you are in the sector of the resources—like when I was interviewed about the nickel industry in Indonesia—they have the resources, but they are limited to a certain stage of production. We are helping them to improve their abilities in producing and processing the raw materials into the intermediate or the better products. So I think that's how complementary advantages can be done better, and it is very important to address respective concerns of these countries. Like some countries want to improve their tax, some countries want to have more value-added products, we can discuss that, and that is very important and will be accepted by the sectors.
So I mean that the complementary can be improved instead of just trying adjust the state over there. Because even if you are in the sector of the resources—like when I was interviewed about the nickel industry in Indonesia—they have the resources, but they are limited to a certain stage of production. We are helping them to improve their abilities in producing and processing the raw materials into the intermediate or the better products. So I think that's how complementary advantages can be done better, and it is very important to address respective concerns of these countries. Like some countries want to improve their tax, some countries want to have more value-added products, we can discuss that, and that is very important and will be accepted by the sectors.
And the final question is about the coordination and cooperation among the BRICS countries. Can that be useful to deal with our own concerns, the regional concerns, or global challenges? When the world has under pressures from so many dimensions, including the poverty reduction, including the climate change, including the logistics， and also the gaps between the different parts of the society, and also about the fairness.
So I think that cooperation among the BRICS countries cannot be unique. They can try to find best practices, and the best practices can be learned and borrowed by others. So I think that is very important for us to deal with the differences and trying to make better use of the resources. In a word, the cooperation among the BRICS countries is a very important power to drive for the next generation of globalization. We know that globalization has so many flaws, so many of these countries want to improve that. And the BRICS countries cooperation will be one very special characteristic and bring people more hope. Thank you.
8月24日至25日，由北京对话主办的“金砖国家与多极世界2024对话会”在北京举行。来自15个国家和南方中心等国际组织的近40位专家学者，就金砖国家构建货币体系、参与多极世界构建、增强经济韧性与合作等议题，进行了深入研讨。以上编译自周密的发言。
（翻译：王奕涵 核译：赵欣）