穆罕默德·萨奇布：为什么印中合作至关重要？
Abstract: Mohammad Saqib, Secretary-General of the India-China Economic and Cultural Promotion Association, wrote for the Center for Geoeconomics for the Global South. He pointed out that cooperation between India and China is crucial for the economic growth and countries' development in the Global South. The two countries have complementary advantages in economics, technology, and infrastructure construction, which can jointly promote the development of the Global South. Through cooperation in fields such as IT, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, infrastructure, digital technology, and healthcare, India and China can provide new momentum and solutions to the challenges faced by the Global South. However, it is necessary to overcome long-standing political and border disputes and demonstrate strong political will and effective leadership. India-China cooperation is conducive to building a more balanced and multipolar global order.
穆罕默德·萨奇布参加北京对话主办的“金砖与多极世界研讨会”（图源：北京对话）
印度方面乐见印中关系可能解冻和改善的迹象，尽管仍持谨慎态度。这种潜在的和解不仅对双边关系有重大影响，对全球南方也具有深远的意义。正如莫迪总理所言，全球南方迫切需要一个“双引擎”来刺激增长并解决现存问题。
当前的经济形势下，发展中国家正经历着痛苦与困苦。大多数国家仍在努力应对新冠大流行之后的债务危机和其他系统性挑战。越来越明显的是，传统的经济处方已不足以应对这些复杂的问题。因此，全球南方的新兴经济体必须重新聚焦、携手合作，并展现有效的领导力。
在这方面，全球南方的新兴市场经济体可以发挥巨大作用。克服全球南方大多数国家面临的挑战，需要集体行动、协作和战略指导来解锁新的增长和发展机会。这些经济体需要团结起来，利用其独特的优势和经验，帮助塑造一个更公平、更可持续的全球经济秩序。
2023年8月23日上午，金砖国家领导人第十五次会晤在约翰内斯堡杉藤会议中心举行。南非总统拉马福萨主持会晤。中国国家主席习近平、巴西总统卢拉、印度总理莫迪和俄罗斯总统普京（线上）出席。这是会晤期间，五国领导人集体合影。（图源：新华社）
鉴于协作努力和强有力的领导对于克服挑战和创造新的增长机会至关重要，印度和中国在这方面将是关键参与者。通过协同合作，以及利用各自的优势与经验，中印两国可以为经济增长创造动力，并为整个发展中世界创造前所未有的制造业、贸易和技术进步的机会。作为世界上主要的经济大国和人口最多的国家，印度和中国有能力找到共同点并合作。它们联合起来的影响力可以作为增长的“双引擎”，有可能重塑全球经济动态，并为全球南方和世界的进步提供新的途径。
双重引擎：两股强大力量
印度和中国共同构成的经济力量不容小觑，两国的总人口约占世界的三分之一，经济总产值更是占到了全球的超过35%。印度的国内生产总值估计为3.6万亿美元，而中国则高达18万亿美元。这一经济实力预示着它们可能成为全球南方经济增长的转折点。
“双引擎”这一概念假设两国在这一背景下能够相互补充、共同贡献。例如，印度以其蓬勃发展的IT和制药行业以及丰富的人力资本储备，提供了独特的优势。相反，中国是制造业强国，拥有基础设施发展的专业知识，以及在人工智能和可再生能源等新兴技术方面的创新能力和强大影响力。同时，中国市场也逐步成为向发展中国家注入资金的重要渠道，通过海外投资和直接外资促进了这些国家的发展。将这些互补性用于发展将是对全球南方的福音。
（图源：央视新闻）
在基础设施发展方面，中国的“一带一路”倡议（BRI）除了其政治含义之外，在亚洲、非洲及其他地区的基础设施建设方面取得了显著进展。印度私营部门在建筑和工程领域有丰富的专业知识，拥有大量的工程师和半熟练的劳动力。在此类项目上的合作可以为所有利益相关者提供成本效益高和可持续的好处。全球发展中心（2020年）的一份报告估计，到2040年，BRI有可能为全球GDP增加做出2.6万亿美元贡献。
为什么印度-中国合作至关重要
合作的另一个重要领域是数字技术。印度在数字基础设施方面的成功，如Aadhaar计划（生物识别数字身份系统）和用于移动支付的统一支付接口（UPI），为发展中国家提供了宝贵的经验。结合中国在5G技术和数字基础设施方面专业经验，可以创造强大的协同效应，弥合数字鸿沟并促进包容性增长。
新冠病毒大流行凸显了全球卫生系统的弱点。印度作为仿制药的主要生产国，而中国则在生物技术领域不断扩张，两国可以在联合研发、专利和生产方面展开合作，以确保全球南方国家能够以可负担的价格获得关键药物和疫苗。
在印度海得拉巴，工作人员正在格兰德制药厂工作。（图源：新华社）
印度-中国合作的好处远远超出了这些特定领域。在应对气候变化、科学和技术合作、灾害管理和粮食安全方面的联合努力可以为整个发展中国家带来实质性的成果。
然而，实现这一“双引擎”愿景面临几个挑战。它需要强大的政治意愿，以友好的方式解决两国之间长期存在的问题。几十年来，中国和印度之间的关系，可以说是既有合作又有竞争，两者相互交织，形成了一种复杂的局面。历史遗留问题、边界争端和战略竞争常常使潜在的合作黯然失色。世界，特别是发展中国家，需要印度和中国共同努力。印度-中国合作在推动全球南方发展方面的成功可以成为南南合作的典范，并有助于形成一个更加平衡和多极的世界秩序。
以下为英文原文：
Indian industry and foreign affairs observers have welcomed recent signals indicating a thaw and potential improvement in India-China relations, albeit cautiously. This potential rapprochement has significant implications not only for bilateral ties but also for the broader Global South, which urgently needs, in the words of PM Modi, a “double engine” to spur growth and address present-day issues. The current economic environment is marked by suffering and distress in developing countries. Most nations are still grappling with the aftereffects of the pandemic, debt crises, and other systemic challenges. It has become increasingly clear that traditional economic prescriptions are insufficient to address the scale and complexity of these issues. Therefore, a renewed focus, cooperation, and effective leadership from emerging economies in the Global South is essential.
In this regard, the emerging market economies of the Global South have immense role to exercise. Overcoming the challenges faced by the majority of Global South countries will require collective action, collaboration, and strategic guidance to unlock new opportunities for growth and development. These economies need to unify and leverage their unique strengths and experiences to help shape a more equitable and sustainable global economic order.
Given that collaborative efforts and strong leadership are essential for overcoming challenges and creating new opportunities for growth, India and China will be key players in this context. By working together and utilizing their strengths and experiences, these countries can generate momentum for economic growth and create unprecedented opportunities for manufacturing, trade, and technological advancement across the developing world. As the world’s major economic powers and most populous nations, India and China have the ability to find common ground and collaborate. Their combined influence can serve as a “double engine” of growth, with the potential to reshape global economic dynamics and offer new pathways for progress in the Global South and the world.
Double Engine: A Dual Force
The combined economic might of India and China is substantial, representing approximately one-third of the world’s population and accounting for more than 35% of global GDP. India’s GDP is estimated at $3.6 trillion, while China’s stands at $18 trillion. This economic prowess has the potential to be a game-changer for the Global South.
The concept of a ‘double engine’ in this context assumes that both countries have complementary contributions. For instance, India, with its booming IT and pharmaceutical sectors and a large pool of human capital, offers unique advantages. Conversely, China is a manufacturing powerhouse with expertise in infrastructure development and a strong presence in innovation and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and renewable energy. The Chinese market is also emerging as a significant source of investment outflows through overseas investments and foreign direct investment into developing countries. Pooling these complementarities for development would be a boon for the Global South.
In infrastructure development, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aside from its political implications, has made significant strides in building infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and beyond. India’s private sector, with its expertise in construction and engineering, boasts a large pool of engineers and a semi-skilled workforce. Collaboration on such projects could provide cost-effective, sustainable benefits for all stakeholders. A report by the Center for Global Development (2020) estimates that the BRI has the potential to add $2.6 trillion to global GDP by 2040.
Why India-China Collaboration Matters
Another important area for potential collaboration is digital technologies. India’s success in digital public infrastructure, exemplified by its Aadhaar program (a biometric digital identity system) and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) for mobile payments, offers valuable lessons for developing nations. Combining this expertise with China’s advancements in 5G technology and digital infrastructure can create powerful synergies, bridging the digital divide and fostering inclusive growth.
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the weaknesses of global healthcare systems. India, a leading producer of generic drugs, and China, with its expanding biotechnology sector, can collaborate on joint R&D, patenting, and production to ensure affordable access to vital medicines and vaccines for the Global South.
The benefits of India-China collaboration extend far beyond these specific sectors. A joint approach to tackling climate change, cooperation in science and technology, disaster management, and food security can yield substantial results for the entire developing world.
However, achieving this “double engine” vision presents several challenges. It requires a robust political will to resolve long-standing issues between the two neighbours amicably. For decades, the relationship between India and China has been characterized by a complex mix of cooperation and competition. Historical baggage, border disputes, and strategic rivalry have often overshadowed the potential for collaboration. The world, especially the developing nations, needs India and China to work together. The success of India-China collaboration in driving Global South development could serve as a model for South-South cooperation and contribute to a more balanced and multipolar world order.
（翻译：赵欣 核译：李雨琪）