樊胜根 孟婷 王晶晶：Boosting food security amid crises

近日，中国农业大学全球食物经济与政策研究院(AGFEP)院长樊胜根教授与研究院成员孟婷老师和王晶晶老师在《中国日报》(英文版)发文谈在危机中加强食物安全。

文章首先指出全球食物系统面临重大风险和威胁，而现今的俄乌冲突、持续的COVID-19以及极端天气在内的气候变化等挑战，更是将全球食物价格推至历史新高。同时，分析了这些事态加剧发展对中国粮食安全的影响，指出国际粮食贸易缺口和化肥等农资短缺、化石和生物质能源价格上涨，已经引发全球粮价暴涨，对中国国内粮食市场和价格造成压力。最后，提出短期和长期保障中国粮食安全的措施，即在短期灵活调配粮食库存，稳定市场预期避免挤兑，关注小农和低收入家庭等弱势群体，同时在国际上倡导构建保障粮食生产和贸易的绿色通道；在长期要采取多种措施来转向更具有可持续性和韧性的食物系统，优化国内供给结构和进口布局，积极参与国际食物治理，保障中国和全球的食物安全。

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The global food system faces significant risks and threats that could disrupt the food supply chains, and cause massive economic loss to food producers and consumers, and other players in the food sector.

The interrelated nature of the food system has made the risks even more complex. Each risk, or threat, can seriously disrupt the system, while a combination of these risks can threaten global food security and nutrition.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict, the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, climate change including extreme weather events, natural disasters, and frictions and speculation in food trade have pushed up global food prices to record highs.

For example, in February, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index was 140.7 points (taking 2014-16 as the base), up 3.9 percent from January and 20.7 percent from the same period in 2021. In particular, the global grain price index increased by 14.8 percent over the same period last year.

Direct and indirect impact on China's food security

These developments have added to the already high pressure on countries to safeguard food security, including China, and made poor people in food-importing countries and regions all the more vulnerable.

However, the export restrictions announced by Russia and Ukraine are likely to have limited impact on China's food security, not least because China is almost self-sufficient in wheat and corn. While Ukraine has banned the export of wheat, oats and other staples, Russia has decided to impose a temporary ban on the export of grains to Eurasian Economic Union countries until June 30.

Also, the proportion of China's total wheat imports is low, as they accounted for only 7 percent of the total supply in 2021. Moreover, wheat imports from Russiaand Ukraine comprised less than 1 percent of the total, and imported wheat isused only to supplement high-quality domestic varieties.

When it comes to corn, China's self-sufficiency rate exceeds 95 percent. And although corn imports from Ukraine increased by 30 percent in 2021 owing to the China-US trade war, the delivery of the consignment has been basically completed.

The indirect impact of the export restrictions of Russia and Ukraine on China could be induced food supply shocks and price hikes, particularly because Russia and Ukraine together account for 30 percent of the world's wheat exports, nearly 20 percent of corn exports and 80 percent of sunflower seed and oil exports.

Moreover, since Russia is a major fertilizer producer (accounting for 14 percent of the global urea market and 21 percent of the potash market), its export restrictions have led to rising fertilizer prices, which in turn is pushing up farming costs and food prices.

The Ukraine crisis has also caused a surge in oil and gas prices which, by default,has raised the demand for bioenergy and thus increased use of corn－as well as canola, soybean, wheat and other plant-based products to make biofuels. As a result,the costs of agricultural inputs, food production and transportation have increased, fueling further price rise. In short, shortage of food supply and fertilizers, and rising energy prices have triggered a surgein global food prices, affecting the food market and increasing food prices in China.

Strategies to boost food security

In the short term, China needs to timely allocate food stocks, take measures to assure the public that it would overcome the direct and indirect impacts of the fast-changing global situation, including rising food and energy prices. The authorities should also pay special attention to vulnerable groups such as smallholder farmers and low-income households and take steps to ensure their livelihoods are not affected by the shortage of agricultural inputs and rising food prices.

In the long run, however, it is important to shift toward more sustainable and resilient food systems to cope with sudden and continuous food price hikes, and neutralize their effects on global food security.

It is critical therefore for China to take all the necessary measures to better safeguard food security, mitigate the multiple risks posed by climate change, pandemics and trade conflicts. It should also increase investments in farmland and livestock infrastructure, advance agricultural technology research, deal with climate shocks, strengthen agri-food risk management platforms, and provide financial help such as agricultural credit, disaster insurance, and other kinds of support for farmers.

Besides, China needs to optimize the structure of the domestic supply and key grain andfood product imports, by strengthening its partnership with major food-producing countries, particularly with those involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, and diversifying import sources.

Food markets across countries are linked through production, transportation and/or trade. There is a need therefore for China and the rest of the international community to work together to ease the global food crisis and improve the stability of the global food market, so as to safeguard food security andnutrition.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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