周小川最新演讲：山川异域 风月同天，世界需要怎样的经济复苏？

来源 | 博鳌亚洲论坛

本文为博鳌亚洲论坛副理事长、中国人民银行原行长周小川5月20日在“第26届‘亚洲的未来’国际交流会”上的讲话。

进入2021年，随着世界加快推进疫苗接种和多国保持大规模经济刺激政策，全球经济复苏步伐明显加快。但是，新冠肺炎疫情仍以波浪式在全球蔓延，传播性更强的变异病毒加大了防疫抗疫难度，导致世界呈现多速复苏。亚洲国家最早步入复苏轨道，但是疫情仍成为直接影响经济表现的主要变量。尽管截至今年5月中旬，以色列、阿联酋、新加坡等国的疫苗接种人数已超过30%，但是，亚洲整体疫苗接种率仍大幅落后于欧美，而且低于全球8%左右的水平。亚洲国家需要抓紧治疗病患，加快推进疫苗的生产与接种，加强社会隔离和精准防控等综合措施，与国际社会一起向疫情未能得到有效控制的国家提供最为急需的帮助，为亚洲和全球的经济复苏提供坚实保障。

今天，我想谈两方面的问题。一是后疫情时代，世界需要怎样的经济复苏？二是为实现坚实复苏，亚洲如何吸引新资金？

首先，关于世界需要怎么样的经济复苏？联合国秘书长古特雷斯提出，全球要“重建更美好的未来”（build back better）。可以说，当前世界经济需要抓紧弥补缺口，促进经济转型。要重点弥补卫生健康和基础设施缺口，加快向绿色、数字化转型，使复苏更持久，发展更有动力，社会更加包容。

就亚洲而言，史无前例的新冠疫情暴露了亚洲各国医疗卫生体系的极限和薄弱环节。多国国内医疗卫生体系结构松散，公立医院负担过重，治疗不够及时有效，应急反应能力严重不足。当前，确保疫苗快速可及和可负担，是亚洲卫生健康面临的另一重大挑战，日本、中国、韩国、印度作为全球新药和新治疗技术研发的生力军肩负着重要使命。

新冠疫情同时凸显了亚洲区内弥补基础设施缺口的必要性，特别是提高软硬件基础设施韧性，维护供应链稳定和贸易畅通。亚洲各国一方面需要解决能源电力、公路铁路、卫生健康等方面的基础设施瓶颈问题，来提高生产力，吸引外商直接投资；另一方面要重视跨国互联互通基础设施的建设。亚洲15国去年年底签署的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）就是重要的促进互联互通的软性基础设施。

疫情提升了亚洲对绿色产业革命的再认识。我们知道，1997年联合国气候变化框架公约缔约方在日本达成《京都议定书》，是人类历史上以法规形式促进各国完成温室气体减排目标的第一步；2015年通过的《巴黎协定》为2020年后全球应对气候变化提出了更强有力的行动计划。新冠疫情下，全世界人民对可持续发展更为渴求，越来越多的国家认识到，应对气候变化不仅是责任分享，更是绿色技术和绿色产业发展带来的机会分享，是未来的竞争力。亚洲是全球碳减排任务最重的地区之一，2021年全球超过80%的煤炭需求增长可能来自亚洲。2020年，中、日、韩等亚洲国家领导人做出碳中和的目标承诺，受到国际社会的广泛赞誉。

此外，在全球引领数字经济发展的亚洲，疫情下加速向数字化转型。制造类企业加速转型为以数据为本的数字企业，强制性的社会隔离、跨境旅行受限催生了远程办公、云会议，政府的公共服务与教育、医疗、金融等各类服务转向线上，数字化平台的数量以及规模也不断扩大。更好地向数字化转型，需要亚洲各国为数字科技研发与数字经济发展创造良好制度安排和公平竞争的营商环境，通过加强数字基础设施建设缩小数字鸿沟，以及推动WTO及区域贸易协定对电子商务、数字贸易进行规制。

下面，我想谈谈疫情下，亚洲如何吸引新资金来稳定宏观经济，弥补发展缺口，促进经济向绿色、数字化转型。

第一，要重视二十国集团的缓债安排和全球及区域金融安全网提供的资金支持选择。我们知道，去年二十国集团（G20）通过了“暂缓最贫困国家债务偿付倡议”（DSSI）以及后续债务处理的共同框架。今年4月，G20将DSSI延长至2021年底，同时呼吁国际货币基金组织（IMF）制定总额为6500亿美元的特别提款权（SDR）分配方案。目前，有46个低收入国家申请加入DSSI。IMF也在制定增发和更好地使用SDR的方案。希望IMF能进一步研究赋予SDR更多的国际储备货币功能，使成员国能更灵活地使用和借入SDR，用来应对流动性和公共支出需要。同时，我们也注意到，亚洲区域金融安全网《清迈协议》也在今年增加了本币出资条款，提高了自主贷款的比例。多层次的金融安全网可以为亚洲国家，特别是疫情下表现脆弱的国家，提供更多的稳定宏观经济的资金支持选择。

第二，重点吸引社会责任投资、中长期以及股权投资资金。首先，在当前全球低利率环境下，亚洲新兴经济体和发展中国家应吸引更多的中长期资金并考虑将债权转换成股权，来帮助解决政府债务负担过重的问题，保证政府对关键基础设施投资以及相关产业的前期投入，带动私人投资。同时，引导绿色产业发展，统一绿色金融标准制定,健全绿色信息披露机制,提供更多的信贷、债券和股权产品，吸引全球社会责任投资（ESG）机构资金进入。ESG机构已成为国际市场上重要的资金提供方，它们投资时重点考察碳排放、清洁技术、再生能源、生物多样性等因素。亚开行和亚投行等多边开发金融机构也把绿色作为贷款评审的重要条件，已经或正在讨论停止对火电和涉煤项目投资。此外，亚洲由于拥有众多高成长性的科技创新企业，已经成为全球私募股权、风险投资基金的首选目地的。亚洲需要更好地加强数字基础设施建设与互联互通，优化监管框架，更好地吸引股权类风险资金，加快数字化转型。

第三，更好地利用亚洲内部的资金。亚洲经济快速增长使亚洲整体保持较高的国民储蓄率，中国以及东南亚一些国家的储蓄率显著高于全球平均水平，全球排名前十的主权财富基金都集中在亚洲。亚洲还有上海、东京、香港、新加坡等国际金融中心，在集聚全球资本、促进本币合作、投资新业态新领域、服务实体经济上一直发挥着重要枢纽作用。2020年，港交所和上交所在全球首次公开发行筹资规模上排在第二和第三位。亚洲几大交易所之间还建立起基金互认或投资联通的安排。

亚洲多国还在加强宏观审慎管理的同时，稳步推进金融业对外开放。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）和《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）对金融市场和金融服务的开放作出了制度性承诺。此外，中国的“一带一路”倡议与日本“高质量基础设施伙伴关系”倡议、东盟互联互通总体规划等区域性、全球性互联互通倡议有效对接，也将有力推动亚洲区内的资金融通。

第四，进一步推动中日投资合作。作为全球的贸易大国和投资大国，中日加强投资合作，可以为两国、亚洲乃至全球经济可持续复苏带来急需的新资金和新技术。后疫情时代，绿色产业革命和数字经济转型本身就需要大量新资金，光靠一国财力或国际机构的支持是不可能实现的。必须要形成合力，快速聚合资金，发挥各自生产要素优势。中国国家开发银行与日本国际协力银行已开展投资合作，中投公司与五家日本金融机构联合成立了中日产业合作基金。

2020年，中日两国在实现“碳中和”上提出了明确的时间表和路线图，制定了数字经济发展的规划或新政。在绿色领域，两国可以通过加强投资合作，推动氢能、氨能等清洁能源以及非化石能源的开发和利用；交流碳市场建设经验和探讨市场联通的可能。在数字经济领域，可以通过投资促进企业进行全产业链的研发和生产合作，满足广阔的未来市场需求。此外，中日两国金融机构还可以进一步推进在第三方市场的投资合作，形成优势互补。

女士们，先生们，世纪大疫和百年变局下，人类命运与共，必须携手应对挑战，任何一个国家都不可能脱离其他国家实现可持续复苏与发展。“山川异域，风月同天”，中日两国在疫情下守望相助，并与世界其他国家一起携手共抗疫情，直至最终胜利。

中国国家主席习近平在今年博鳌亚洲论坛年会上倡议，“亚洲和世界各国要回应时代呼唤，携手共克疫情，加强全球治理，朝着构建人类命运共同体方向不断迈进”。我们相信，通过加强合作，弥补现有缺口，促进向未来转型，亚洲将在全球经济复苏中发挥重要引领作用，为世界经济的繁荣稳定作出更大贡献。

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 For English Version

Thanks to the accelerated COVID-19 vaccination around the world and large-scale stimulus policies adopted by various countries, the pace of global economic recovery has been obviously speeded up since the beginning of 2021. However, the waves of COVID-19 infections are still sweeping across the world. New mutations of the virus with greater infectivity have increased pressure on epidemic prevention and control, resulting in economic recovery at varied speeds in different parts of the world. Asian countries are the first to enter the lane of recovery, but the pandemic remains a major variable directly affecting their economic performance. By mid-May this year, 30% population in countries like Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Singapore had been vaccinated. The overall vaccination rate in Asia still lags far behind that of Europe and America and is even lower than the global average of 8 percent. While taking active actions to treat infected patients, Asian countries should also step up vaccine production and vaccination, take integrated measures such as strengthening social distancing and promoting targeted epidemic prevention and control, and work with the international community to provide urgently needed assistance for countries where the pandemic has not been effectively contained, thus laying a solid foundation for economic recovery in Asia and the world at large.

I would hereby like to talk about two topics: one is what kind of economic recovery the world needs; the second is how Asia should attract new investments to realize concrete recovery.

First, what kind of economic recovery does the world need? UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted that the world needs to “build back better.” That means what the world economy needs now is to strengthen the weak links and accelerate economic transformation. The world should focus on filling the shortfall in public health and infrastructure and push forward green and digitalized transformation to achieve more sustainable economic recovery, faster development, and a more inclusive human society.  

For Asia, the unprecedented COVID-19 outbreak exposed the limitations and weak links of the healthcare systems in various countries. Many countries suffer a loosely structured healthcare system, and their overloaded public hospitals fail to provide timely treatments for infected patients and severely lack emergency response capacity. Currently, ensuring COVID-19 vaccine affordability and accessibility is another major challenge faced by Asia’s healthcare sector. As the key forces in global research and development of new drugs and therapies, Japan, China, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and India shoulder important missions in this regard.

The COVID-19 pandemic shines a light on the importance of filling infrastructure shortfall in Asia, especially enhancing the resilience of hardware and software infrastructure and maintaining unimpeded supply chains and trade amid the pandemic. On the one hand, Asian countries need to remove infrastructure bottlenecks in fields like power, transportation, and healthcare to enhance the productive force and attract more foreign direct investments; on the other hand, they need to attach importance to the construction of cross-border connectivity infrastructure. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement signed by 15 Asian countries at the end of 2020 is an important software infrastructure for promoting connectivity.

The pandemic urges Asia to rethink the importance of the green industrial revolution. As we all know, the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed the Kyoto Protocol in Japan in 1997, which marked the first step taken by humankind to urge countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through a binding treaty. The Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 put forth a more robust action plan for the global community to cope with climate change. In the context of COVID-19, people around the world are more eager for sustainable development, and more and more countries have realized that addressing climate change is not only about sharing responsibilities but also about sharing opportunities brought by the development of green technologies and industries, which will determine a country or region’s competitiveness in the future. Asia is one of the regions facing the heaviest task of reducing carbon emissions. It is estimated that more than 80% of the world’s projected growth in coal demand in 2021 will come from Asia. In 2020, leaders of some Asian countries, including China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), consecutively announced their respective targets to achieve carbon neutrality, receiving high acclaims from the international community.

In addition, as a global forerunner in the development of the digital economy, Asia is taking faster steps toward digitalization amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Manufacturing enterprises are quickening their paces to transform into data-based digital companies, mandatory social distancing and cross-border travel restrictions have stimulated the boom of teleworking and teleconferences, public administrative services, education, medical care, financial services, and other types of services have been moved online, and the number and scale of digital platforms continue expanding. For a better digital transformation, Asian countries need to make favorable institutional arrangements and create a business environment featuring fair competition for the development of digital technologies and the digital economy. They also need to reduce the digital divide by strengthening digital infrastructure development and pushing the WTO and regional trade agreements to improve regulations on e-commerce and digital trade.

Next, I would like to share my views on how Asia can do to attract new capital for macroeconomic stability, fill the gaps in development, and push forward the green and digital transformation of its economy.

First, Asian countries need to attach importance to the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and the financial support options provided by global and regional financial safety nets. The G20 adopted the DSSI and a common framework for debt treatments last year. In April 2021, the G20 decided to extend the DSSI through the end of this year, and called on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to prepare for a new allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) totaling $650bn. So far, 46 low-income countries have requested to participate in the DSSI. It is hoped that the IMF will consider bestowing on SDRs more functions as a world reserve currency so that its member states will be able to use and borrow SDRs more flexibly to meet the needs of liquidity and public spending. Moreover, we notice that the amended Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI), which serves as Asia’s regional financial safety net, institutionalized the use of members’ local currencies for CMI financing and increased the portions of delinked loans this year. Financial safety nets at various levels can provide more financial support options for Asian countries, especially those vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic, to maintain their macroeconomic stability.

Second, Asian countries can focus on attracting socially responsible investments, medium to long-term funds, and equity investments. First of all, given that much of the world has entered a low interest rate environment, emerging economies and developing countries in Asia can work to attract more medium to long-term funds and turn debt into equity, so as to reduce the public debt and ensure governments’ investment in key infrastructure and early investment in relevant industries while boosting private investment. Moreover, they can step up the development of green industries, unify the standards for green finance, improve the green information disclosure mechanism, and provide more credit, bond, and equity products to attract funds from global ESG institutions. ESG institutions have become an important source of funds in the international market. When planning an investment, they prioritize factors such as carbon emissions, clean technology, renewable energy, and biodiversity of relevant projects. Multilateral development banks such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also make “eco-friendliness” a key index when assessing loan applications and have begun to halt or considered halting investments in coal-firing power generation projects and other coal-related projects. In addition, Asia is home to many hi-tech enterprises with great growth potential, making the continent a top investment destination for global private equity funds and venture capital funds. Therefore, Asia needs to strengthen digital infrastructure connectivity and optimize the regulatory framework to attract more private equity and venture capital funds, and accelerate its digital transformation.

Third, Asian countries can make better use of funds within the region. The rapid economic growth in Asia leads to a relatively high national savings rate among Asian countries. In particular, the national savings rate in China and some Southeast Asian countries is much higher than the global average. The world’s top 10 sovereign wealth funds are all in Asia. Moreover, Asia has such international financial hubs as Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore, which have long played a significant role in attracting global funds, promoting local currency cooperation, investing in new industries and new sectors, and serving the real economy. In 2020, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and the Shanghai Stock Exchange respectively ranked second and third globally in terms of IPO volume. Major stock exchanges in Asia established the arrangements for mutual recognition of funds and investment facilitation.

While strengthening prudent macro-management, many Asian countries have taken steady steps to push forward the opening-up of their financial sectors. Both the RCEP and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have made institutional commitments on opening up financial markets and financial services. In addition, the effective alignment of regional and global connectivity initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure, and the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity will greatly promote financial integration in Asia.

Fourth, China-Japan investment cooperation can be further enhanced. As key traders and investors in the world, China and Japan need to strengthen bilateral investment cooperation, thus providing urgently needed new funds and new technologies to boost sustainable economic recovery of the two countries, Asia and even the world. In the post-pandemic era, the green industrial revolution and digital transformation of the economy require a large amount to investment, which would not be achieved only with the support of any single country or international institutions. Therefore, China and Japan can join forces to rapidly gather funds and give full play to their respective advantageous productive factors. The China Development Bank and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation have carried out investment cooperation, and China Investment Corporation (CIC) joined hands with five Japanese financial institutions to establish the China-Japan industrial cooperation fund.

In 2020, both China and Japan unveiled their respective timetables and blueprints for achieving carbon neutrality and mapped out action plans and new policies for boosting the digital economy. In terms of green development, the two countries can strengthen investment cooperation to push forward the development and utilization of clean energy such as hydrogen energy and ammonia energy as well as non-fossil energy, and share experience on the construction of carbon markets and discuss the possibility to of market connectivity. In terms of the digital economy, the two countries can push enterprises to carry out cooperation on R&D and production throughout industrial chains through strengthening investment to meet the future demand of the market. In addition, financial institutions of the two countries can further promote investment cooperation in third-party markets to complement each other’s advantages.  

Ladies and gentlemen, Facing the severe pandemic and profound changes unseen in a century, all humans should share weal and woe and join hands to overcome the challenge. Any country cannot achieve sustainable recovery and development if completely isolating itself from other countries. “Though miles apart, we are close at heart.” Amid the pandemic, China and Japan help each other and work together with other countries to fight the virus until the final victory.

In his keynote speech delivered at the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “China calls on all countries in Asia and beyond to answer the call of our times, defeat the pandemic through solidarity, strengthen global governance, and keep pursuing a community with a shared future for mankind.” We believe that through strengthening cooperation, filling the existing gaps, and pushing forward future-oriented transformation, Asia will play an important leading role in global economic recovery and make greater contributions to the prosperity and stability of the world economy.

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我们之前举办了一系列的闭门会议，邀请了诸多经济学家、政策官员和企业家给大家讲解最新的趋势和政策，效果非常好。在此过程中，我们发现闭门会议的局限性，不能很好的满足更多人对政策的需求。在此背景下，我们将原来的闭门会议开放为网络直播。为了更好地传递政策信息，让大家更容易地理解政策发掘机会，这次我们精心确认了10位部长和院士，推出《政策解读大师》为大家带来深度解析。我们的政策解读将围绕今年八项重要任务和宏观趋势展开。宏观政策不枯燥且重要，这里你将和这些部长和院士学习到如下内容：

政策解读大师课，有线上、线下两种可选择，内容一样。线下版，可与部长院士面对面交流讲解3小时，4999元/人次；直播版，2999元/次。
为回报经济学家圈读者，我们对价格进行了大幅调整。线上直播大师课每次299元，全年10次共计999元，每次仅仅99元；线下版课程优惠价3290元/人次，我们每次会整理好部长院士的讲义，发给大家，供大家课后学习体会。
价格之所以定的这么便宜，是为了回报支持我们的读者朋友们，这个价格只为覆盖执行成本。我们真诚地希望能通过经济学家圈的平台，让大家更准确的理解宏观政策和趋势，建立自己的认知体系，透彻理解政策出台的前因后果、比身边的人更早的发现投资机会，更好的理解其他人的行为。
现报名将免费获得碳中和内部报告一份。

直播课购买，请扫↑

专享价

999元/10次

线下课购买，请扫↑

专享价

3290元/次