Key Signals Released by the 2024 Two Sessions 两会释放的重要信号

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“China's most important annual policy-setting meetings, known as the two sessions, or "lianghui" started on March 4, a range of economic and social development targets, including GDP growth, CPI, and fiscal policies are unveiled. Keywords such as new productive forces and high-quality development have become focal topics of shaping the country's economic landscape. 作为中国最重要的年度政治聚会，“两会”聚焦国内生产总值GDP增长、居民消费价格指数CPI、财政政策等一系列经济社会发展目标的出台，以及国家发展战略、政策及实践方向、重大法律法规，和群众关注的热点问题。2024年3月4日起举行的两会上，新质生产力、高质量发展等关键词成为重点。”

Statistics results of the survey on the hot topics of the two sessions in 2024，Financial times

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What are the goals and key initiatives for the economic and social development of China 2024? 

2024中国经济社会发展的目标和举措是什么?

1、 China is expected to set a GDP target of around 5% for 2024 in the Government Work Report (Hereinafter referred to as “the report”) delivered during the Two Sessions. The government's goals are generally in line with market expectations, and the trend is returning to the decline in potential growth rates. 根据政府工作报告，2024年国内生产总值（GDP）增长目标为5%左右。政府目标与市场预期基本一致，预期趋势回归至潜在增速下降。

2、 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target is around 3%. Over the past year, the decline in market prices has raised concerns about deflation. 消费价格指数（CPI）涨幅目标为3%左右。过去一年市场价格下跌，引发对通缩问题的关切。

3. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to be arranged at around 3%, and the government plans to issue super-long-term special bonds  as the primary mode of investment, stronger support than last year. This policy is expected to reduce the risk  of local debt. 财政赤字率预计按3%安排，政府计划发行超长期特别国债作为投资的主要模式，支持力度强于去年，这一政策有望降低地方债务风险。

4. The monetary policy stance is characterized as stable. The government emphasizes structural monetary tools, especially  in supporting emerging industries and innovation. 货币政策基调为“四平八稳”，政府强调结构性货币工具，特别是在支持新兴产业和创新方面。

5. Industrial Development: Emphasis is placed on new productive forces and high-quality development. The government plans to increase investment in emerging industries such as intelligent connected new  energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, bio-manufacturing, commercial aerospace, and others. Simultaneously, a new model for real  estate development is being constructed, with policies aiming to meet both  rigid and improvement-oriented housing demands, fostering stability in the real estate market. 产业发展：强调新质生产力和高质量发展，政府计划加大对智能网联新能源汽车、人工智能、半导体、生物制造、商业航天等新兴产业的投资。同时，构建房地产发展新模式，政策力求满足刚性和改善性住房需求，促进房地产市场稳定。

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Focal topics of shaping the country's economic landscape

塑造国家经济格局的关键词

High-quality development 高质量发展：

Despite a slowdown in economic growth, China remains one of the crucial engines driving global economic expansion. High-quality development aims to shift China from a debt-driven economy to a  sustainable one, fostering a more sustainably developing society. The strategic path to achieving high-quality development includes achieving technological self-sufficiency at a high level, establishing a high-standard market system, maintaining a high level of openness to the outside world, cultivating a highly  competitive modern industrial system, promoting a well-coordinated regional  economic layout, ensuring a high-quality ecological environment, positive  interactions of life and safety. 虽然经济增速有所放缓，但中国仍是全球经济增长的重要引擎之一。高质量发展旨在将中国从债务驱动型经济转变为可持续经济，一个更持续发展的社会。实现高质量发展的战略路径包括高水平科技自立自强、高标准市场体系、高水平对外开放、高竞争力的现代化产业体系、高度协调的区域经济布局、高品质生态环境、生活及与安全良性互动等。

National common prosperity 国家共同富裕的大棋布局：

In the context of the overarching policy of common prosperity, urban clusters focusing on high-quality economic development serve as economic leaders, further tapping  into the consumption potential within the cluster and driving economic  development in the surrounding regions. In a sense, this marks a 'consumption  awakening' among residents in county towns, triggering a trillion-dollar business  wave, and erasing the consumption boundaries between small county towns and  large cities. Simultaneously, the Z generation, influenced by digital  information technology and diverse cultures, places greater emphasis on diverse  consumer demands. These characteristics will shape future social and  consumption trends, influencing the development of China's culture, economy, technology, and consumer industries. 在共同富裕的大政策背景下，高质量经济发展的都市圈，作为经济龙头来带动圈内地区经济的发展进一步挖掘消费潜力。某种意义上，这是县城居民的“消费觉醒”，掀开万亿掘金潮，小县城与大城市的消费边界正在消融。同时，Z世代们受到数字信息技术、多元文化影响，更注重多元的消费需求。这些特点将在未来塑造社会和消费趋势，影响着中国的文化、经济和科技及消费行业的发展。

New Productive Forces 新质生产力：

Specifically, new productive forces involve core technological innovation, data-driven approaches, a focus on advanced upgrades along the industrial and value chains, and service enhancements. These factors continuously bring forth production elements with high added value, efficiency, and sustainability, serving as powerful drivers for development.The key focus in developing new productive forces is tied to high-quality development. For instance, the transition of manufacturing towards modernization will propel the modernization of the warehousing and logistics industry. 具体而言，新质生产力有以科技创新为核心、数据驱动、关注迈向产业链和价值链的高端升级，服务升级等因素，不断涌现的具有高附加值、高效益、可持续性的生产要素作为强大发展动能。发展新质生产力重点是把握高质量发展这个首要任务，例如制造业向现代化迈进将推动仓储物流行业的现代化发展等。

In addition, the report emphasized keywords such as cultural tourism, paid vacations, the silver economy, cultural digitization, etc. This also sets the direction for the development of related industries. 除此之外，2024年两会政府工作报告，还强调文娱旅游、带薪休假、银发经济、文化数字化等关键词，也为相关产业的发展指明了方向。

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, the GDP growth rate of China may decline to 4.6% in 2024 due to the sustained weakness in China's real estate industry and sluggish external demand. It is predicted that China's economic growth will peak in 2023 and gradually slow down thereafter. OECD forecasted a decrease to 4.7% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025 respectively of China's growth rate, influenced mainly by sustained pressure on the real estate industry and high household savings rates. According to data from the Lianhe Zaobao, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China saw a significant decline in 2023, reaching its lowest level in 30 years. Despite challenges in FDI, global investors have been continuously readjusting their capital allocations, with India and Japan becoming increasingly attractive investment destinations. China is still striving to attract more overseas capital to drive economic growth and innovation. Two Sessions of 2024 explicitly outlined strategies such as expanding openness to the outside world, which is expected to significantly boost market confidence and consolidate momentum for high-quality growth. 根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，由于中国房地产行业持续疲软和外部需求疲弱，2024年中国的GDP增速可能降至4.6%，认为中国的经济增长将在2023年达到峰值，然后逐渐放缓。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）预测，主要受到房地产行业持续压力和家庭高储蓄率的影响，中国的增长率预计在2024年降至4.7%，2025年为4.2%。根据联合早报数据，2023年中国的外国直接投资（FDI）出现了显著下滑，达到了30年来的最低水平。尽管外国直接投资出现了挑战，全球投资者对资金配置重新调整一直在持续，印度和日本也正在成为更热的投资对象，但中国仍在努力吸引更多的海外资本，以推动经济增长和创新。2024年两会中明确了扩大对外开放等战略，亦将极大提振市场信心，为高质量增长凝聚动力。

On March 7th, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a press conference on the 'China's Foreign Policy and Foreign Relations' issues. He revealed that China will continue to introduce measures to facilitate the movement of people between China and other countries. Starting from March 14th, China will further implement a visa-free policy for citizens of Switzerland, Ireland, Hungary, Austria, Belgium, and Luxembourg, creating an efficient network for cross-border personnel exchanges. 3月7日外交部长王毅就“中国外交政策和对外关系”相关问题在新闻发布厅举行记者会，透露中国将继续推出便利中外人员往来的举措，从3月14日起，中方将进一步对瑞士、爱尔兰、匈牙利、奥地利、比利时、卢森堡六国实行免签政策，打造跨境人员往来的快捷网络。

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