海外之声｜OMFIF主席解读中国海外国家资产配置走向（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者大卫·马什是国际货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）联席主席。原文摘自OMFIF评论，OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者提出，中国如何处置在外拥有的大量外国资产是世界经济面临的一个重要问题之一。从数据上看，我国政府的外国投资正在从债权投资转向股权投资，国外直接投资正在从发展中国家转向发达国家。

中文译文如下：

中国在重组国外资产

北京将目光从债券转向股权

大卫·马什

翻译：郑泽

审校：肖柏高

世界经济面临的最重要问题之一，就是中国如何处置其大量外国资产，即二十年来积累的可观账户盈余。账面平衡和国际资产数据突出了中国正在重新重组其对外投资组合，从其他国家的国债（以美国国债为主）转向更多其他国家的股权，尤其是欧洲国家的股权。

这是中国政府审慎战略的一部分，可从外国投资中获得额外的杠杆和价值。政府致力于模仿美国和其他盎格鲁萨克逊国家的成功，这些国家以较低的利率其他国家贷款，再以较高的回报率对外投资。

由于北京对资本外流加强了管控，对人民币造成了下行压力，中国公司对欧支出今年显著放缓。但是潜在的趋势显而易见，一旦对国际收支平衡的限制放宽，中国可能希望继续购买外国股权。

上周，穆迪宣布下调中国的信用评级，恶化了中国国际处境。信用评级机构的这个决定基于一个预期，即中国金融力量将会随债务攀升而在未来“有所削弱”，虽然中国的经济展望已从负面转向稳定。

根据货币金融机构官方论坛（以下简称OMFIF）发布的年度报告《全球公共投资者》中各经济体净国际投资头寸的数据，中国是世界第三大净债权国。这份出版物总结了全球750家公共机构的投资管理表现。OMFIF 2017年《全球公共投资者》报告将于6月14日发布。

全球第一债务国是美国，且远超其他国家。这反映了美元作为国际第一储备货币的地位以及美国包揽了全球多数存款。

美国一方面债筑高台，另一方面又是全球最大的总资产持有国。2017《全球公共投资者》中的全球公共投资者750强包括了中央银行、主权基金和公共养老基金，而美国占全球公共可投资产的约20%。中国有3个机构在列，即中国人民银行、中国投资公司和全国社会保障基金，三者资产总和占可投资金的约12.5%。

中国的储备资产由中国人民银行持有；这些储备资产里，与国外直接投资和上市及未上市股权等其他投资相比，美国国债所占比重很高。央行储备资产的数据显示中国在过去几年中对国外投资结构的改革。中国政府随后承认，中国将过多的资金分配给了无利可图的美国固定收益证券，导致对外投资的回报不是最优的。

中国去年年末的总外部资产可能是中国在海外的全部财富，因为有些财富是通过非法渠道渗透到海外的。根据OMFIF编撰的来自国际货币基金组织和其他来源的公开数据，外部资产中储备资产和其他类型的投资（多半是股权）大约各占一半。这与2013年的分析构成了鲜明对比；2013年，中国的海外资产约三分之二是储备资产，三分之一是其他类型的投资。按照我们的分析，中国的海外直接投资在过去三年中大约翻了一番，反映了资本管控导致对外国公司的资产的收购脚步显著放缓。

这些数据表明投资在过去十年中国外直接投资逐渐从发展中国家转向了发达国家，也表明了中国储备资产与2014年的高峰相比减少了1万多亿美元，这个减少帮助中国公司减少外债，积累海外股权。之前，欧洲和北美在中国的对外投资中仅占3%。由于对外投资重组，这一比重去年达到了近50%，且与此同时对外投资总额大幅增长。

英文原文如下：

China rebalances foreign assets

Beijing turns away from bonds towards equities

by David Marsh in Singapore

Wed 31 May 2017

How China deploys its considerable foreign assets, acquired as a result of two decades of sizeable current account surpluses, is one of the most important issues facing the world economy. Balance of payments and international asset statistics underline how China is rebalancing its foreign investments away from holdings of other countries' debt (led by US government dollar bonds) towards greater ownership of foreign equities, with a particularly large build-up in Europe.

This redeployment is part of Beijing's deliberate strategic efforts to gain extra leverage and value from foreign investments. It is seeking to emulate the successes of the US and other Anglo-Saxon countries in borrowing from abroad at relatively low rates of interest and investing outside the country at significantly higher rates of return.

China's corporate spending in Europe has slowed significantly this year because of Beijing's sharpened controls on capital outflows, introduced to damp downward pressure on the renminbi. But the underlying trend is clear and suggests China may wish to continue foreign equity purchases once balance of payments constraints ease.

Strains on the country's international position were demonstrated by last week's announcement by Moody's of a cut in China's credit rating. The rating agency based its decision on expectations the country's financial strength will 'erode somewhat' over coming years as debt rises – even though China's outlook was lifted to stable from negative.

China is the world's third largest net foreign creditor in value terms, according to data on the net international investment positions of different economies collated for OMFIF's annual Global Public Investor. The publication summarises the investment management performance of 750 public sector agencies around the world. OMFIF's GPI 2017 report is due for release on 14 June.

The world's largest net foreign debtor, by a wide margin, is the US. This reflects its extraordinary position as the home of the primary international reserve currency and a haven for much of the world's savings.

The enormous debt position in the US co-exists with the country's role as the world's largest holder of gross assets. In the list published in GPI 2017 of the world's 750 top public investors – central banks, sovereign funds and public pensions funds – the US accounts for around 20% of global public investable assets. China accounts for three of the world's top public sector investors – the People's Bank of China, China Investment Corporation and the National Social Security Fund – with assets of around 12.5% of the total.

Data on China's holdings of reserve assets at the PBoC, which are heavily weighted to US Treasury bond holdings, compared with portfolio, direct and 'other' investments, which are mainly in publicly quoted and non-quoted equity, underline how China shifted its foreign investment structure during the last few years. This follows recognition by the Beijing authorities that the country was achieving suboptimal returns on its foreign investments by gearing an undue amount of its allocations towards unprofitable holdings of US fixed income securities.

China's gross external assets at the end of last year – which may not include all the country's overseas wealth, some of which seeped abroad via illicit channels – were roughly equally split between reserve assets and other types of investment, most of it in equities, according to publicly available data from the International Monetary Fund and other sources, compiled by OMFIF. This was a marked shift from previous analysis for 2013, when around two thirds of external assets were in reserve assets and one third in other types of investment. According to our analysis, China's direct investments abroad roughly doubled over the last three years, reflecting the foreign corporate buying effort that has slowed considerably because of capital controls.

These data – which show a clear switch to direct investments in advanced countries and away from the developing world over the past decade – demonstrate how the PBoC's well-publicised fall in China's reserve assets of more than $1tn from 2014 highs has helped finance a fall in Chinese corporate foreign debt and a build-up in overseas equity holdings. Europe and North America accounted for only 3% of China's overall foreign investment flows abroad. Their share soared to almost half of a much larger total last year as part of the foreign investment rebalancing.

David Marsh is Managing Director of OMFIF.

观点整理  田雯

图文编辑  田雯

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