海外之声 | 捷克央行前行长：经济学理论在经济复苏中的地位不可替代（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者米罗斯拉夫·辛格（Miroslav Singer）是捷克中央银行前行长、货币金融机构官方论坛（OMFIF）顾问委员和Generali CEE Holdings机构事务部总监和首席经济学家。原文摘自OMFIF评论，OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者在文章中回应了“经济学无用”的观点，认为经济学家虽然未能预测2008年的金融危机，但相比上世纪30年代，在危机过后的九年，世界秩序依然在大范围内保持稳定，民众生活水平未受显著影响。这些都归因于由经济理论支撑的宏观财政、货币政策。最后，作者说明，经济学在解释社会运行方面有无可替代的地位。

中文译文如下：

捍卫“忧郁的科学”

经济学家如何战胜危机

米罗斯拉夫·辛格

翻译：郑泽

审校：肖柏高

作为一名从业经济学家和前央行行长，我在公共演讲时要经常回答一个问题：经济学作为一门科学是否已经走到了尽头？人们总是勤于批评，指责多数经济学家未能预测到2008年金融危机的根源及严重程度。但最近世界经济的正常化证明，经济学家并非有过无功。虽然在过去十年中，西方遭遇了20世纪30年代以来最为严重的经济危机，经济学这门“忧郁的科学”依然至关重要的，有益于实施恰当的宏观经济政策，避免出现最为严重的后果。

未能预测到危机的代价惨重。多数发达经济体的金融系统深受其害，自由市场论与政府官员因此广受质疑。反建制的政治家吸引了大批选民。然而，全球自由贸易大体上未受损害，主流政党也正在通过新政策解决选民关心的问题。不过，形势本可能更为严峻。从经济衰退开始至今已有9年。当前，全球经济正在回归可持续的平衡。

不妨对比一下当今世界与1929年大萧条之后的情况。大萧条爆发9年后的1938年，希特勒的权力膨胀到了史无前例的程度。1934年起就被独裁者统治的奥地利被德国兼并。1939年9月，第二次世界大战爆发。大规模失业（某些经济体失业率高达三分之一）产生了严重的政治后果，许多民主政体遭受了致命一击。而人们即便有幸保住工作，工资也会下降。

由于20世纪30年代的宏观经济政策存有缺陷，成千上万的民众不得不排队领取发霉的面包和寡淡的汤水。许多国家转而推行贸易保护主义，采取定价机制，并对重点行业实行垄断。大萧条后过于紧缩的宏观经济政策，影响远大于中央银行在过去9年中所采取的政策。

经济学在预测未来方面可能并无改观，但在缓和其失败后果方面有所进步。20世纪30年代的问题和随之而来的战争令我们深思。若要讨论2008年危机后经济学作为一门科学的价值，我们应该牢记，危机开始9年后的今天，除了经济学，我们还有其他可替代的学科吗？

英文原文如下：

Defending the dismal science

How economists beat the crisis

by Miroslav Singer in Prague

Wed 21 Jun 2017

In public debates I am continually asked – in my capacity as a practising economist and former central bank governor – whether economics as a science has failed. People are quick to cite how most economists did not foresee the source or severity of the 2008 financial crisis. But recent normali 46 32858 46 15231 0 0 4023 0 0:00:08 0:00:03 0:00:05 4022sation of the world economy makes it easier to argue No. Although the West in the last decade faced the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, the dismal science was essential for implementing appropriate macroeconomic policies to avoid the gravest consequences.

The failure to forecast the crisis led to enormous costs. The upset struck the financial systems of most developed economies. This caused widespread distrust of free market doctrines and government officials. Anti-establishment politicians are attracting large number of votes. However, global free trade was mostly unharmed, and mainstream political parties are addressing the electorate's concerns through new policies. The situation could have been much worse. In 2017, nine years after the start of the recession, the global economy is returning to sustainable equilibrium.

Compare this to what followed the 1929 great depression. Nine years later, in 1938, Adolf Hitler's power was rising to unprecedented levels. Austria, already under authoritarian rule since 1934, was annexed by Germany. The second world war began in September the following year. Many democracies were fatally undermined by the political consequences of massive unemployment, which in some economies peaked at one-third of the workforce. For those lucky enough to have jobs, wages for falling.

Deficient macroeconomic policies in the 1930s forced much of the population to queue for stale bread and thin soup. Many states shifted to protectionism and price-fixing, and created monopolies in key industries. The consequences of overly tight macroeconomic policies after the great depression were a great deal higher than those of policies pursued by central banks over the last nine years.

The dismal science may not have improved its forecasting record, but it has performed better in moderating the consequences of its failures. The troubles of the 1930s and subsequent war should make us reflect. When discussing the value of economics as a science following the 2008 crisis, one should keep in mind, nine years later, what the alternative could have been.

Miroslav Singer is former Governor of the Czech National Bank and a Member of the OMFIF Advisory Board. He is Director of Institutional Affairs and Chief Economist at Generali CEE Holding.

观点整理  田雯

图文编辑  田雯

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