海外之声 | 亚洲资本市场的发展：角色与挑战

导读

自上世纪九十年代金融危机以来，亚洲资本市场呈现了显著的增长。亚洲在全球股市市值中的占比由2000年的1%攀升至2017的15%。亚洲本地货币证券市场流出额占GDP比例在2018年相比2000年更是增长了一倍多。显而易见，亚洲经济的迅速发展推动了地区的资本市场增长。与此同时，各个国家和地区层面的市场参与者、政策制定者和监管者们也都共同为亚洲的市场自由化、市场基础结构强化付出了许多努力。

展望未来，亚洲需要比以往更进一步加速和深化金融市场的发展。更完备的国内和地区的资本市场将会在亚洲长期稳定的经济增长中起到更关键的作用。

推动亚洲资本市场发展具有多方面的经济学启示，例如中产阶级收入增长、国内资本市场流通性加强、货币政策效率的提升。基准利率改革则是我们当前完善市场结构所面临诸多挑战的一个具体实例。

作者 | 雨宫正佳（Masayoshi Amamiya），日本央行副行长

英文原文如下：

Development of Asia's Capital Markets: 

Roles and Challenges

Masayoshi Amamiya

Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan

Introduction

Good morning everyone. It is my great pleasure to be here at the Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA) annual conference 2019. I am honored to address this distinguished audience comprised of representatives from the securities and asset management industries, institutional investors, policy makers, and regulators in Asia and other important regions.

Asia's capital markets have experienced remarkable growth since the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Asia's share of global stock market capitalization soared from 1 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2017. Notably, the amount outstanding in local currency bond markets in Asia as a share of GDP in 2018 increased to more than double that in 2000 (Chart 1). Obviously, the rapid expansion of Asian economies has driven the growth of the capital markets in the region. At the same time, the collective efforts of market participants, policy makers, and regulators both at national and regional levels have contributed to market liberalization and enhancement of market infrastructures in Asia.

Typical examples of such regional cooperation include the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI), launched by the ASEAN+3, as well as the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) initiative3 of the Executives' Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP), which is a group of 11 central banks and monetary authorities in the region. Financial industry associations, such as the ASIFMA, have also played a vital role by facilitating dialogue between market participants, promoting regional coordination, and providing necessary recommendations from a market perspective. Activities by those market participants and relevant authorities have been indispensable for the development of Asia's capital markets. I would like to recognize and praise all of those who have committed to these efforts.

Looking to the future, Asia needs to further accelerate and deepen the development of its financial markets more than ever before. This is because the existence of more developed capital markets both domestically and regionally will play a much more crucial role for the long-term stable economic growth of the region.

Today, I would like to discuss the economic implications of the conference theme, "developing Asia's capital markets," from several perspectives. Then, I will briefly touch on interest rate benchmark reform, as a specific example of the challenges we are facing as we endeavor to further develop market infrastructures.

Economic Significance of Further Developments in Asia's Capital Markets

Financing Economic Growth through the Growing Middle-Income Class

Let me begin with the importance of relying on the growing middle-income class to finance economic growth. The middle-income class in Asia has been growing to a remarkable extent. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts4 that the middle-income population in Asia will constitute 66 percent of the world's share in 2030, more than doubling that in 2009(Chart 2).

The rise of Asia's middle-income class will be accompanied by growth and diversification of the financial needs of that class. Both domestic and regional markets in Asia must satisfy those evolving demands by providing various financial services, including investment trusts, pension funds, and insurance.

By doing so, Asia will receive benefits such as inflows of money from the middle-income class into infrastructure projects, which require a significant amount of funding. In otherwords, meeting the financial demands of the growing middle-income class will contribute to utilization of Asian savings for Asian investments.

Strengthening Financial Stability with More Liquid Domestic Capital Markets

Now, I would like to proceed to a perspective of financial stability. Since the Asian financial crisis, many countries in the region have made wide-ranging efforts, including a reduction in the non-performing loans held by banks, in order to enhance their resilience against capital flow dynamics.

However, the presence of domestic bond markets in the Asian financial system is still limited, compared with that of banking sectors. In order to further strengthen financial stability in Asia, it is important to diversify funding sources for firms by developing

domestic bond markets. Recent empirical studies point out that domestic bond marketsinEast Asia provided an alternative source of funding for firms in the region when the liquidity of international debt markets vanished during the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009. East Asia saw greater domestic bond issuance during the crisis, in contrast with lower international bond issuance and a reduction in the amount of syndicated loan origination(Chart 3). This result tells us how important it is to develop domestic bond markets to make the Asian financial system more robust.

Enhancing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Lastly, I will touch on the effectiveness of monetary policy. For the conduct of monetary policy, central banks buy and sell financial instruments from capital markets, and they also receive financial instruments as collateral for the provision of liquidity. So, the degree of market functioning and liquidity concerning those financial instruments is a critical element that impacts the effectiveness of monetary policy.

In this regard, repos are financial instruments that are frequently used in the conduct of monetary policy, because repos carry a low credit risk and they are suitable for inventory and liquidity management by market makers. In Asia, market participants have preferred to use FX swaps and uncollateralized funding because of their accessibility and operational convenience, and the role of repo markets has been relatively limited overall. However, the situation is now changing. The EMEAP market survey7 suggests ongoing efforts to enhance the functioning and liquidity of money markets such as repos. These efforts are being driven by various initiatives, such as the promotion of non-bank participation and the enhancement of industry standards. Accelerating these efforts would lead to greater effectiveness of monetary policy in Asia.

Interest Rate Benchmark Reform

Before closing, I will comment on interest rate benchmark reform. It would be beneficial to share some key points of interest related to this issue, as there are active discussions in various markets throughout the world.

In the wake of the LIBOR manipulation scandal, more reliable and robust interest rate benchmarks have been pursued. In addition, LIBOR will most likely be permanently discontinued after the end of 2021 judging from the announcement by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority in July 2017 that the survival of LIBOR cannot be guaranteed.

LIBOR is the most widely-used benchmark in the global financial system and its discontinuation would have a significant impact on Asian markets. For example, the transition from U.S. dollar LIBOR to an alternative risk-free rate would be necessary in cases where the U.S. dollar is funded via cross-currency swaps. Accordingly, the other leg of the swap could also be affected.

We should also bear in mind that the discontinuation would affect a wide range of marketparticipants in Asia.The latest EMEAP report8 on a survey among member central banks on this issue stresses the importance of raising awareness of the potential discontinuation of LIBOR among institutional investors and non-financial corporates in particular.

In Japan, initiatives to prepare for the possible discontinuation of Japanese yen LIBOR have been taken by the Cross-Industry Committee on Japanese Yen Interest Rate Benchmarks. The Bank of Japan serves as Secretariat on the committee, which is composed of a wide range of parties including financial institutions, institutional investors, and non-financial corporates. The committee has also expanded its deliberations into a public consultation and a wide range of outreach activities, such as holding a forum for non-financial corporates and industry associations (Chart 4). As a result, market awareness has been gradually growing and proactive initiatives towards interest rate benchmark reform, such as LIBOR exposure mapping, have been launched.

The permanent discontinuation of LIBOR would be one of the most significant events in global financial history, and the deadline is unavoidable. It is therefore important for us all to work together for our common interest -- a smooth transition to alternative reference rates. We should bring together our cross-sectorial wisdom and experience towards establishing more reliable and robust interest rate benchmarks, and make interest rate benchmark reform one of the great successes in global financial history.

Concluding Remarks

This conference covers so many important topics related to financial developments in Asia. I hope that lively discussions and exchanges of viewpoints over the coming two days will further contribute to the development of Asia's capital markets.

Thank you very much for your attention.

编译  何映儒

编辑  李锦璇

来源  BIS

审校  金天、蒋旭

监制  朱霜霜

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