季刊速递｜International Monetary Review, July 2021, Vol. 8 No. 3

目录

【Special Column on Post Pandemic Economic Challenges】

• High Attention to Regional Financial Risks, An Important Window Period for Deepened Reform and Adjustment

• A commentary on how the pandemic has reshaped world economy and the challenges going forward

• Post pandemic economic challenges

• Be Mindful of The Risks

• Central European outliers stick to inflation targeting 

• South Africa unearths hidden strengths during pandemic

• How are central banks helping to make the recovery from the Covid19 pandemic more sustainable and inclusive

【China】

• Accommodating China Is Unavoidable

• Principle hijacked for political profit in Xinjiang cotton row 

• China's global financial footprint

• Working Together with Mutual Respect for a Better and Shared Future

【Global Economy】

• US inflation surge is harbinger of what’s to come

【Central Banking】

• Central banks and inequality

• Reducing reserves and central bank balance sheets 

• What central banks do next is vital for global economy

• Governments look for new roles for central banks

【Green Finance】

• Walk the talk

• Green Investment, an integral part of Belt and Road Initiative

• Carbon Neutral Green Finance: China May Take the Lead into a Post-Pandemic World

• Climate Change-Our Most Global Challenge

• From market neutrality to market efficiency

• Transparency and market integrity in green finance

• Hawks, doves and green swans 

• Walking the tightrope to net zero

• Asia Pacific working to narrow ESG gaps

【Digital Economy】

• Regulating fintech is an activity-based approach the solution

• BigTech in Financial Services 

• Five trends shaping the future of digital currencies 

【Working Paper】

• Corporate Financial Asset Holdings under Economic Policy Uncertainty

• The Impact of Basel Accords on the Lender’s Profitability under Different Pricing Decisions

部分文章摘要

【Special Column on Post Pandemic Economic Challenges】

1

A Commentary on How the Pandemic Has Reshaped World Economy and the Challenges Going Forward

作者：

Il Houng Lee

Member of IMI International Committee, Adjunct Professor of Seoul National University

摘要   

Policy responses focused on keeping the economy afloat, to maintain the economy’s productive capacity, and to protect the most affected group of population. Fiscal policy, the scope of which in ADs exceeded that of the GFC period aimed at supporting demand, including through fiscal transfers to household and to businesses. On the monetary policy side, interest rates were further lowered to alleviate debt burden and support economic activity. Some central banks extended direct lending to businesses and provided guarantees. Relaxed regulatory forbearance and moratorium also became a common feature across countries. These policy measures were well implemented. In most countries, growth quickly stabilize after the initial sharp fall in the first quarter of 2020. IMF staff estimated6 policies to have contributed to about 6% to global growth in 2020. In the absence of these policies, growth could have contracted by more than three times the actual downturn. Accordingly, EMs (excluding China) with less policy space saw a larger decline in growth, and low-income developing countries yet to see the bottom of the decline.

2

Post Pandemic Economic Challenges

作者：

Herbert Poenisch

Member of IMI International Committee, Former Senior Economist of BIS

摘要   

The Covid 19 pandemic which has plagued virtually all countries in the world has brought an unprecedented relapse into nationalism not seen by the present generation. The relapse in terms of sanitary and economic emergency not only resorted to measures for residents of one country but to their nationals. Borders were closed and existing agreements on free movement of people were suspended. Foreigners were shown the door and if they stayed they received no special attention. However, the spillover of domestic measures affected the whole population of countries including expats and foreign workers. The economic emergency measures adopted for nationals of countries had global implications.

This article will not cover the fallout of the pandemic on economic growth and the dislocation of various factors of production which are analysed widely and deeply by various experts and organisations such as the BIS and the IMF. It will rather assess the spillover, or contagion of various measures to the global economy. In the first part the major fallout of the pandemic for domestic and international economies will be assessed. The measures taken by national authorities to save their citizens from this fallout with the effects on the global economy will follow in the second part. The third part deals with the fallout of these measures for the Chinese economy.

【China】

3

Accommodating China Is Unavoidable

作者：

Andrew Sheng

Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong

Xiao Geng

Member of IMI Academic Committee, Director of Policy and Practice Institute at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), President of Hong Kong Institution for International Finance

摘要   

How would a One Earth system be realized? Bottom-up feedback mechanisms, enabled by technology, will be crucial. The objective must be to break the silos that global elites, aided by abstruse language, have traditionally created. This would enable more people – with expertise in more areas – to contribute to discussions.

The benefits of such an approach are thrown into relief by the tension between traditional economic thinking – focused on ever-more consumption, investment, and growth – and environmental imperatives, like reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and protecting biodiversity. In a One Earth system, more of a “good thing” can often be very bad.

The obsolete, siloed approach is also reflected in the facile narrative that the US and China are locked in a “clash of civilizations.” Empires clash. Civilizations should be “civil” to one another, not least because we are all sharing the same Earth.

To that end, leaders must move beyond a narrow focus on national security to broad, inclusive discussions about how to deliver global security, in the form of peace, stability, adequate nutrition, and environmental sustainability. But, first, the US must give up on containing China and start accommodating it.

4

Principle Hijacked for Political Profit in Xinjiang Cotton Row

作者：

Liu Jun

Member of IMI Academic Committee, Deputy Secretary of CPC and President of Bank of Communications

摘要   

Beijing has protested strongly against the misinformation and false claims in the Xinjiang cotton dispute. The array of videos and audio files produced can hardly be classified as findings; they only give information from one side. Mere stories cannot be treated as material evidence where there is a dearth of facts that can be verified and validated.

For the powerful Chinese consumer, there is also the principle of national pride. Brands, no matter how popular, that do not behave in line with China's core national interests, or whose China-bashing declarations are not based on fact, can also expect to face a punishing boycott.

There are no grounds to assume that Chinese consumers' actions are unjustified or politically driven, or that their purchasing decisions are manipulated by the government or propaganda. Chinese consumers are quite able to come up with their own judgments and decisions.

【Green Finance】

5

Walk the Talk

作者：

Han Seung-soo

Chairman of IMI International Committee, Former Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea

摘要   

Climate change is no longer a looming threat of the future but a destructive reality that is already happening and threatening all humanity.

The international community has paid growing attention to the climate change issues since the early 1990s by formulating and adopting various strategies, conventions and treaties to address the challenges. But we might have been simply too obsessed with formulating and joining international treaties with too ambitious goals as targets that have never been fully realized.

It is encouraging to note that an increasing number of countries and companies are making a commitment to the Net Zero 2050 initiative. But setting that ambitious target does not guarantee that the desirable outcomes will be achieved. To reach the targets we have set and make real changes, we must take real actions.

6

Green Investment, an Integral Part of Belt and Road Initiative

作者：

Yaseen Anwar

Member of IMI International Committee, Former Governor of the Central Bank of Pakistan

摘要   

The Belt Road Initiative (BRI) and the importance of Climate Risk embedded in Green Investment Principles (GIP) complement each other in supporting Infrastructure thatin itself is critical for economic development.  The strategic geographical location of Kazakhstan is the gateway between Europe, the Far East, and the Middle East via Pakistan’s ports. To ensure Central Asia extracts value and achieves success in economic development, we must overcome the challenges of global uncertainty and volatility we face on a daily basis as well as the geopolitical tensions and upheavals that are a daily phenomena that impact us all. Such uncertainties do not bode well for financial markets and economic development. However, one long term constant retains its consistency in support of global economic growth & development for all participating countries and that is the Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Why, because it provides access to capital to developing countries on a scale never before available in history for their long term economic development.

7

Carbon Neutral Green Finance: China May Take the Lead into a Post-Pandemic World

作者：

Peter Koenig

Former Senior Economist of the World Bank

摘要   

Real Green Investments are for example, exploiting renewable and carbon-free sources of power, such as hydropower – wind, solar and tidal energy, with the latter taking advantage of the natural and eternal movements of the sea. 

China will also continue being a world example of building “Green Cities”; investing in parks and “green housing” – housing units with plant façades – that absorb urban CO2 emissions from industry and transport.

These are Green Investments, as long as their dependence on hydrocarbon energy is way below the CO2output of the Green Investment itself.

The traditional, huge, costly, and maintenance-heavy hydropower dams ought to make way for a new generation of hydropower production: namely, small, localized, low-maintenance and even mobile hydropower plants. The latter for use in desertic and monsoon-type flash-flood prone areas. A prime example is Yemen, one of the world’s most arid countries, where floods come when it rains, but where perennial water flows are rare.

【Working Paper】

8

Corporate Financial Asset Holdings under Economic Policy Uncertainty: Precautionary Saving or Speculating?

作者：

Huang Jialin

School of Finance, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

Luo Yu

Research Fellow of IMI, School of Finance, Renmin University of China

Peng Yuchao

Research Fellow of IMI, School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics

摘要   

Non-financial corporations invest heavily in financial assets nowadays, raising questions about the traditional boundaries of non-financial firms. We investigate how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’ holdings of non-currency financial assets and portfolios in China. We find that economic policy uncertainty has a negative effect on firms’ non-currency financial asset allocation, especially for less financially constrained firms. This result implies that other than precautionary saving, speculation is the underlying motive that drives firms to increase their non-currency financial asset holdings. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty has a negative but weaker impact on financial asset holdings for firms in industries/regions with intensive competition.

9

The Impact of Basel Accords on the Lender’s Profitability under Different Pricing Decisions

作者：

Huang Bo

Research Fellow of IMI, School of Finance, Renmin University of China

Lyn C. Thomas

School of Management, University of Southampton

摘要   

In response to the deficiencies in financial regulation revealed by the global financial crisis, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is proposing to introduce a new capital regulatory standard to improve the banks' ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic stress. The regulatory capital requirements in the third of Basel Accords is conceptually similar to the mixture of Basel I (risk-invariant requirements) and Basel II (risk-based requirements), it introduce a non-risk based measure to supplement the risk-based minimum capital requirements and measures.

We look at how the interest rate charged to maximise a lender's profitability is affected by the different versions of the Basel Accord that have been implemented in the last 20 years. We investigate three types of pricing models on a portfolio of consumer loans. These are a fixed price model, a two-price model and a variable risk based pricing model. We investigate the result under two different scenarios, firstly where there is an agreed fixed price the lender has to pay to acquire capital in the market and secondly when the lender decides in advance how much if its equity capital can be used to cover the requirements of a particular loan portfolio. We develop an iterative algorithm for solving these latter cases based on the solution approaches to the former. We also look at the sensitivity of the lending policy not only to the different Basel Accords but also to the riskiness of the portfolio and the costs of capital and loss given default values.

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    编辑  查王皓天

   来源《International Monetary Review》

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