海外之声 | 美联储主席：继续加息，使通胀回归2%（附美国上半年货币政策报告全文）

导读

美联储认识到现实经济状况中存在明显的通胀压力。目前，美国通货膨胀率远高于2%的长期目标，价格压力广泛扩散至商品和服务。俄乌争端导致的原油及其他商品的价格飙升和疫情对全球供应链的影响都进一步增加了通货膨胀的压力。第一季度，由于库存和净出口异常剧烈的波动，持续强劲的基本需求的带动作用被抵消，美国整体经济活动有所下降。劳动力市场需求强劲，劳动供应则仍然低迷，失业率接近50年来最低点。

在厘清经济状况的基础上，美联储已经并将采取一系列措施对经济进行调控。美联储致力于促进就业和稳定价格，已采取了提高联邦基金利率、缩减资产负债表规模、减持证券等措施。美国经济可以承受更加紧缩的货币政策，美联储将继续加息，直到有证据表明通胀将降至2%的目标。在这之前，继续加息是合理的，加息决定将在后续议息会议中作出。未来需要灵活应对数据变化和经济环境变动，利用货币政策，遏制高通胀风险，实现平衡就业和物价目标的公共使命。

作者丨杰罗姆·鲍威尔，美联储主席

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Testimony by Mr Jerome H Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, US Senate, Washington DC, 22 June 2022.

Chairman Brown, Ranking Member Toomey, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

I will begin with one overarching message. At the Fed, we understand the hardship high inflation is causing. We are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and we are moving expeditiously to do so. We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. It is essential that we bring inflation down if we are to have a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total PCE (personal consumption expenditures) prices rose 6.3 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.9 percent. The available data for May suggest the core measure likely held at that pace or eased slightly last month. Aggregate demand is strong, supply constraints have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, and price pressures have spread to a broad range of goods and services. The surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is boosting prices for gasoline and fuel and is creating additional upward pressure on inflation. And COVID-19-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate ongoing supply chain disruptions. Over the past year, inflation also increased rapidly in many foreign economies, as discussed in a box in the June Monetary Policy Report.

Overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, as unusually sharp swings in inventories and net exports more than offset continued strong underlying demand. Recent indicators suggest that real gross domestic product growth has picked up this quarter, with consumption spending remaining strong. In contrast, growth in business fixed investment appears to be slowing, and activity in the housing sector looks to be softening, in part reflecting higher mortgage rates. The tightening in financial conditions that we have seen in recent months should continue to temper growth and help bring demand into better balance with supply.

The labor market has remained extremely tight, with the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies at historical highs, and wage growth elevated. Over the past three months, employment rose by an average of 408,000 jobs per month, down from the average pace seen earlier in the year but still robust. Improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics. A box in the June Monetary Policy Report discusses developments in employment and earnings across all major demographic groups. Labor demand is very strong, while labor supply remains subdued, with the labor force participation rate little changed since January.

Monetary Policy

The Fed's monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective.

Against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving economic environment, our policy has been adapting, and it will continue to do so. With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and an extremely tight labor market, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate at each of our past three meetings, resulting in a 1-1/2 percentage point increase in the target range so far this year. The Committee reiterated that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In May, we announced plans for reducing the size of our balance sheet and, shortly thereafter, began the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Financial conditions have been tightening since last fall and have now tightened significantly, reflecting both policy actions that we have already taken and anticipated actions.

Over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down, consistent with inflation returning to 2 percent. We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy. We will make our decisions meeting by meeting, and we will continue to communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

Making appropriate monetary policy in this uncertain environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. And we will strive to avoid adding uncertainty in what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain time. We are highly attentive to inflation risks and determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.

扫码阅读美国2022年上半年货币政策报告全文

编译：彭一默

选题：黄平

本文监制：董熙君、崔甜甜

来源｜BIS

版面编辑｜刘嘉璐

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

总监制｜朱霜霜

近期热文