钟南山：2月中下旬疫情可能到达高峰

2月11日，钟南山院士等专家在广州医科大学附属第一医院与在武汉前方的广东医疗队ICU团队进行了远程视频会诊。视频会诊过程中，钟南山院士就全国疫情发展趋势、何时迎来拐点、救治难点等问题进行回应。

要点内容如下：

1. 根据模型预测，2月中下旬疫情可能到达高峰。目前，疫情拐点无法预测，由返程高峰的防控情况决定。
2. 危重症患者治疗有一定难度。与SARS不同，新冠肺炎有独特的病理特征，抗病毒和抗炎（抗病毒引起的炎症风暴）为两个主要核心问题。
3. 作为21世纪以来第三次冠状病毒引起的传染病，新冠肺炎的病死率较SARS和MERS低。
4. 目前武汉暂未杜绝“人传人”，需要加大防控力度实现“早发现、早隔离”，同时针对重症病人实施救治。
5. 随着医疗人员物资和措施的推进，武汉的情况应该会有改善，但目前仍处于困难时期。

Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan predicted Tuesday that the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) epidemic will reach its peak in mid-to-late February, based on data model analysis. 

Zhong made the remarks at a teleconsultation with a medical team working in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.  

It's hard to predict when the inflection point will come, said Zhong, adding that it depends on the prevention and control work during the travel peak. 

The expert said that there are still some difficulties in treating critically ill patients.  

"The NCP has its unique pathological features," he said, adding that antiviral action and anti-inflammation are core problems.

"As far as we know, the 2019 novel coronavirus is not exactly the same as the one that causes SARS," said the expert, adding that they have been testing several types of drugs.

"Our priorities are first, to be able to kill the virus itself, and second, to alleviate symptoms. We are still facing great challenges. But the fatality rate of this new coronavirus is comparatively lower than that of SARS and of MERS." 

The expert said that the development of the epidemic shows that new cases are emerging slower than before, but he also called for continuing prevention efforts to ensure early detection and early quarantine, saying the situation in Wuhan will improve, but it is still in a difficult time now.

"Now our most important work in Wuhan City is to prevent human-to-human transmission and stop the spread of the virus," Zhong said, adding that with the completion of Huoshenshan and Leishenshan Hospitals and several other makeshift hospitals, they are now able to treat patients at different stages in isolation.

（中文综述自央视新闻）

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