新冠疫情会永久改变出国留学这件事吗？
中国是全球国际学生的最大来源国。如今，新冠疫情席卷全球，为海外留学生活带来了极大的不确定性，也对留学市场造成了很大的负面影响。
考虑到在海外学习有感染新冠肺炎的风险，且海外高校恢复线下授课的日期充满不确定性，许多中国学生开始重新考虑自己的出国计划。
China is the world's biggest source of international students as the number of students studying overseas reached 662,100 in 2018 – a record high.
However, fears of COVID-19 infection and uncertainty about the resumption of onsite classes are now halting Chinese students' education abroad plans and affecting education agencies' lucrative business as well.
学习计划延期
如今，美国是新冠肺炎确诊病例数最多的国家，许多已经拿到美国大学offer的中国学生正在对他们的学习计划进行延期处理。
霍麒如同学就是其中一个。她已经拿到了美国乔治城大学的研究生录取通知书，且正在考虑延期入学的相关事宜。她告诉CGTN的记者，校方允许学生延期半年或一年入学。
她的同学何茵申请的是南加州大学，这所学校则为留学生提供了更多的选择。学生们可以自行选择线上或是线下学习，可以今年晚些时候入学，也可以延期至明年再入学。
对于霍麒如来说，延期入学是很好接受的，因为她原本就计划休假一年再继续深造。但是对于原计划今年出国的学生来说，推迟入学就是一种困扰。
据霍麒如同学透露，有不少留学中介机构表示，美国大学接收国际学生的名额将会减少。这对于想要去美国学习的中国学生来说，无疑是雪上加霜。
Graduate students from China attend the Columbia University Commencement ceremony in New York, the United States, May 22, 2019. /Xinhua
Chinese students, who have already got their offers from American universities, are now deferring since the U.S. is officially the most affected country in COVID-19 pandemic.
"I'm still hesitating about deferring my enrollment for six months or a whole year," Huo Qiru, a Chinese student who has received her offer for a master's degree at Georgetown University, told CGTN. Huo said the university she applied for has not made an official announcement detailing the deferral rule. "The university has adopted a wait-and-see policy," Huo said, adding that students like her are still waiting for feedback.
"My university said it could give each student a deferral of six or 12 months, while it also suggested students to start applying for the passport and visa right now, as the policy for next stage will be adopted soon after," Huo briefed for CGTN.
The university He Yin applied for belongs in the second category. As Huo's classmate, He Yin applied for the University of Southern California, which provided five options for masters students.
"The university said that I can enroll as an on-campus or online student, or I can update my enrollment to late this year or even next year," He Yin told CGTN.
For Huo, the situation is acceptable as she planned to take a gap year. "But for those who were going to study in the U.S. this year are a little bit troubled."
"The deferral resulted from COVID-19 and it will make junior schoolmates anxious," Huo highlighted, telling CGTN that some study abroad agencies forecast that places for students applying for American universities will be less, adding insult to injury.
对未来的迷茫
由英国文化协会组建的一个调研小组，在3月27日至4月3日期间对10808名中国学生进行了调查。结果显示，已递交出国留学申请的学生中，有39%的人还在犹豫是否取消今年的学习计划。
在这10808名受访者中，有1770名学生已经开始了海外留学生涯。他们中11%的人表示有可能将中断留学计划，39%的人认为自己很有可能会继续完成学业。
在8481名申请今年出国的学生中，有2%的人已经取消或者延期了学习计划，39%的人表示犹豫不决。
疫情之下，同学们对出国留学都有些怎样的担忧呢？据调查，个人安全是学生们担心的首要因素，有87%的受访者对个人安全问题表示“十分担忧”。同时，有79%的人表示对健康和幸福指数“十分担忧”。
Not as determined as Huo is, many students are still hesitant. A recent survey revealed that 39 percent of Chinese students who have applied to study overseas are still undecided about canceling their study plans for this year.
Run by the British Council research and consultancy team in Beijing, the survey received 10,808 responses from students in China between 27 March and 3 April.
For the 1,770 respondents who are already studying overseas, 28 percent said they remained undecided about returning China and 11 percent were unlikely to continue studying abroad plan. However 39 percent believed they were very likely to continue.
Of the 8,481 respondents who have applied to study internationally for the coming academic year, only 2 percent said they have already canceled or delayed their plans while 37 percent said they are not all likely or unlikely to cancel. 22 percent said they are likely or very likely to cancel but 39 percent are still undecided.
In terms of what students concern over applying overseas study, 87 percent replied that they were very concerned about personal safety, which ranked the 1st, while 79 percent said they were very concerned about health and well-being.
留学市场冷却
近年来，国内的“留学热”极大地促进了留学机构的发展。然而，眼下新冠肺炎大流行却给这个原本火热的市场泼了一盆冷水。
王雄翔是一名留学机构的经理，他告诉CGTN的记者，与去年同期相比，他所在公司的客户数量减少了百分之二十。他提到，由于国外大学暂时关闭、语言考试和入学考试都被取消，原本有意向出国的学生们如今更倾向于先找份工作，或是选择国内中外合办的项目完成研究生阶段的学习。
受疫情影响，在过去的三个月里，王经理所在的留学机构暂停了与学生的面询，并将咨询工作都转移到了线上进行，签单率较之前也降低不少。
但是，王经理对留学市场依然充满信心。他认为明年的留学市场将会非常火爆，因为今年没有成功出国的学生们明年还会回到留学市场的。
A Chinese student consults an educational agent at an international study fair. /Xinhua
China's recent years' study abroad crave has fueled the growth of agencies that help students with their applications, turning the related business as new "sweet pastry" in market.
"The pandemic is now pouring cold water to hot market," Manager Wang Xiongxiang from an educational agent that provides overseas study consulting service told CGTN, adding that their clients' volume declined by 20 percent from the same period last year.
In consideration of current situation where colleges have been closed and language tests or admissions exams called off, the manager said many students who used to have the intention to pursue further studies abroad now prefer to procure a job first or go to domestic Chinese-foreign cooperatively-run graduate schools.
Saying the market is resilient, the manager still believed the negative influence will not last long and predicted next year's study abroad market will explode since those who choose to take a gap a year will return to pursue further studies.
坚定的意愿
教育领域里，除了留学机构以外，培训机构也受到了新冠疫情的冲击。
对此，新东方教育科技集团董事长俞敏洪认为，疫情带来的负面影响只是暂时的。他认为，中国家长在送孩子出国留学这件事情上有着很强的意愿。因此，疫情过后，出国留学和语言培训市场一定会复苏。
俞敏洪表示，疫情期间，线上线下结合的教学模式得到了加速发展，他指出，从长远来看，在线教育将成为教学过程中不可或缺的部分。同时，他认为，教学的OMO模式(线上线下融合教育)在疫情过后将继续存在。
Yu Minhong speaks at a press conference on the sidelines of the Two Sessions, March 11, 2015. /Xinhua
Training organizations have also been affected when it comes to the COVID-19 impact on education, Yu Minhong, CEO of education company New Oriental said, but he denied its long-term impact.
"The effect is temporary as China's study abroad market will be revived once the disease is defeated," Yu underscored, hailing the strong will that Chinese parents have when it comes to sending their children to foreign universities. This intention will not be extinguished.
Due to the outbreak of COVID-19, the integration of online and offline teaching has been accelerated, Yu said, adding that online education will remain fundamental to the teaching process for a long time.
The Online-Merge-Offline (OMO) mode will not be changed after the wave of COVID-19 passes, Yu said, explaining that online teaching will be a supplement to onsite education.
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