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中国的“一带一路”倡议是振兴世界经济的必要条件

CGTN CGTN 2021-06-04
Editor's Note: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has changed the lives of many people around the world and may even change the global landscape. While Western nations are still struggling with COVID-19, China has already started its economic recovery. Here is the first piece in our "China In Focus" series during Two Sessions: China's BRI. Lawrence Freeman is a political-economic analyst for Africa with 30 years of experience in Africa promoting infrastructure development policies. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
编者按:2020年的新冠肺炎疫情已经改变了全世界很多人的生活,甚至可能改变全球格局。眼下,西方国家还在艰难抗疫,中国的经济已经开始复苏。以下是“两会”期间我们“聚焦中国”(China In Focus)系列报道“中国的‘一带一路’倡议”(China’s BRI)的第一篇。劳伦斯·弗里曼(Lawrence Freeman)是非洲政治经济分析家,在推动非洲基础设施建设政策方面有30年的经验。本文仅代表作者观点,不代表CGTN的观点。

The global economic breakdown ignited by the COVID-19 pandemic entails China and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) playing an important role in restoring health to the world economy. While Western nations are still struggling with COVID-19, and are months away from beginning to refurbish their economies, China has already started its recovery, following its earlier success in combating the coronavirus.
新冠肺炎疫情使全球经济严重受挫,中国及其“一带一路”倡议将在世界经济重回正轨方面发挥重要作用。眼下,西方国家还在艰难抗疫,几个月后才能腾出手来整顿经济,而中国因早先成功控制住了疫情,经济已经开始复苏。

The collapse of nations to conditions resembling the Great Depression and the inability to contain the deadly virus have belied the alleged success of globalization. The underlying flaws of the deregulated post Bretton Woods financial system, which has become an international gambling casino to make fast money, are now nakedly revealed. Given the breakdown of the present global financial system, it is urgent that leading nations issue a call to convene a conference to initiate a New Bretton Woods system, which values human life over making money.
各国经济崩溃到类似于上世纪“大萧条”时期的状况。同时,多国抗疫不力,戳穿了之前鼓吹的全球化成功的谎言。后布雷顿森林体系时代,放松管制的金融体系已经成为赚快钱的国际赌场,一场疫情将其背后的弊端赤裸裸地暴露出来。鉴于目前的全球金融体系已经崩溃,当务之急是由各主要国家发出号召,召集会议启动一个新的布雷顿森林体系、一个视生命高于金钱的体系。

For civilization to progress, a new economic architecture dedicated to ending poverty, and promoting productive economic growth is compulsory. Without question, the United States and China will have to perform outsized roles in establishing a new paradigm of political-economic relationships among nations, notwithstanding current tensions.
人类文明要进步,必须建立一个致力于消除贫困、促进生产性经济增长的新经济架构。尽管目前中美关系承压,但毫无疑问,美国和中国在建立新的全球国际政治经济关系范式方面,都必须发挥巨大的作用。

A new globalization required
世界需要一种新的全球化

The foolish and noxious belief that an economy will grow best by acquiring products cheap-cheap-cheap, cheating on labor costs, and consigning emerging nation's food supply to farmers subsisting on 1-2 hectare plots of land, will have to be jettisoned once and for all. Consider the following essential categories of input needed to transform the global economy, which China and the BRI can contribute. 
一直以来,有人认为经济发展的最佳模式是:通过一味的低价购买产品,骗取劳动力成本,把新兴国家的粮食供应交给靠一、两公顷土地艰难生存的农民。这种观念既蠢且坏,必须坚决抛弃。请看以下几类全球经济转型所需的基本投入,中国及其“一带一路”倡议将带动这些领域。

Productive jobs
生产性就业

Creating hundreds of millions of productive jobs is a necessity to transform the global economy. The International Labor Organization (ILO), estimates the total world labor force is 3.3 billion people, and about two billion of them, or 61 percent of the total, are working in the informal economy. These workers live hand to mouth, day to day, with no insurance of any kind. The vast majority of such informal workers (93 percent) are to be found in the Third World.

创造数以亿计的生产性工作岗位是转变全球经济的必要条件。据国际劳工组织(ILO)估计,世界劳动力总人数为33亿,其中约20亿人(占总数的61%)在非正规经济部门工作。这些劳动者都是现挣现吃,每天的收入当天就会用完,没有任何保险。这些非正规劳动者中的绝大多数(93%)都在第三世界国家。

In the first month after the pandemic hit their countries, laborers in the informal economy suffered an average 60 percent drop in their income. Now, 1.6 billion of those two billion informal workers — almost 80 percent of all informal workers — have lost their jobs or are about to. Tragically, Africa has 86 percent of its labor force working in the informal economy, the highest of all continents.
在疫情发生后的第一个月,非正规经济部门劳动者的收入平均下降了60%。现在,这20亿非正式工人中的16亿人(80%)已经或即将失去工作。令人痛心的是,非洲有86%的劳动力在非正规经济部门工作,在各大洲中是最高的。

Infrastructure
基础设施

Nations and their citizens can no longer depend on other countries providing the necessities of life upon which the security of their nation-state requires to survive. Developing nations should stop importing the majority of their food. Africa, for example, despite having abundant fertile soil is approaching a yearly import bill of 35 billion U.S. dollars. This is a terrible drain of precious foreign exchange, and entirely unnecessary. In fact, the African continent can become a new food exporter with the proper inputs. Infrastructure in water management, railroads, roads, and energy are critical ingredients for growth in food output.
一个国家及其民众不能再依赖其他国家来提供生活必需品,因为这些生活必需品是其国民生存所需的安全保障。发展中国家应停止进口其大部分粮食。例如,非洲尽管拥有肥沃的土地,但每年的进口支出却接近350亿美元。这是对宝贵外汇的可怕消耗,完全没有必要。事实上,只要有适当的投入,非洲大陆完全可以成为一个新的粮食出口区。水利、铁路、公路和能源等基础设施是粮食产量增长的关键因素。

To their credit, China and the BRI have taken the lead in constructing and financing critical infrastructure throughout the world. This should be accelerated with particular emphasis on energy generation. The appalling levels of energy available to businesses and citizens across the Africa continent are not only preventing these societies from developing but are literally killing people. In addition to new hydroelectric dams, the BRI should begin building nuclear power plants in Africa to address the continent's 1,000 gigawatts energy deficit.
值得称道的是,中国及其“一带一路”倡议已在全世界率先进行关键基础设施建设和供资。这方面的工作应该加快推进,尤其是在能源生产方面。整个非洲大陆的企业和公民可利用的能源水平之低令人咂舌,这不仅阻碍了非洲社会的发展,而且简直就是在扼杀人们的生命。除了新建水电大坝之外,“一带一路”倡议还可开始在非洲建核电站,以解决非洲大陆高达1000千兆瓦的能源缺口。

Manufacturing
制造业

Each nation having a robust manufacturing sector is a necessary ingredient for a functioning economy. Many emerging nations have little or no manufacturing sector. Sub-Saharan Africa's production of manufacturing value-added goods constitutes less than three percent of world trade. It has been shown that creating manufacturing jobs is essential to transitioning to a more developed economy. Exporting advanced capital-machine goods through the BRI will enable nations to produce, on their own, the commodities to sustain their society. With this export focus, the BRI contributes greater value to nations struggling to overcome decades of underdevelopment. 
每个国家都要有一个强大的制造业部门,这是经济正常运转的必要因素。许多新兴国家的制造业规模很小或根本没有。撒哈拉以南非洲的制造业所生产的增值产品在世界贸易中所占的比例不到3%。事实表明,创造制造业的就业机会是向更发达的经济转型的关键。通过“一带一路”倡议出口先进的资本-机械产品,将使非洲各国能够自主生产维持社会发展的商品。通过这一出口重点,“一带一路”倡议将为欠发达国家带来更大的价值,帮助它们摆脱数十年来的窘境。

Healthcare
医疗卫生

A health or medical BRI is urgently needed for nations to expand and upgrade their healthcare infrastructure. As deadly as the COVID-19 is in the advanced sector, healthcare is so dire in the developing sector, experts fear hundreds of thousands may die from the virus.  Dozens of countries lack a minimum number of physicians, hospitals, intensive care units, and ventilators per 1,000 people. Establishing the African Center for Disease Control and Prevention was a huge step forward, but to deal with COVID-19 and new zoonotic viruses requires installing more virology laboratories and medical research centers. China is already applying its expertise in this domain.     
各国迫切需要“一带一路”倡议聚焦医疗卫生领域,以扩大和升级其医疗保健基础设施。新冠疫情在发达国家尚且如此致命,发展中国家的医疗卫生状况极其严峻,专家们担心那里数十万人可能会死于新冠病毒。在非洲数十个国家,每1000人所拥有的医生、医院、重症监护室和呼吸机的数量都严重不足。建立非洲疾病控制预防中心是一个巨大的进步,但要应对新冠及其他新的人畜共患病病毒,还需要建立更多的病毒学实验室和医学研究中心。中国已经在这一领域应用了其专业技术资源。

Science
科学

Advances in science and technology should not be limited to a small group of nations. Exporting space science through the BRI is invaluable. Every nation should participate in, and benefit from satellite technology, such as monitoring-detecting locust swarms and crop production. Training centers for advanced engineering should become part of every nation's university and post graduate curriculum. 
科学和技术的进步不应局限于少数几个国家。通过“一带一路”倡议出口空间科学将是非常重要的。每个国家都应参与并受益于卫星技术,如监测探测蝗群和作物生产等卫星技术。先进工程培训中心应成为每个国家的大学和研究生课程的一部分。

Given the massive contraction of the world economy this year due to COVID-19, the BRI provides an essential platform for all nations to cooperate and collaborate in restructuring trade and production to a higher level.
在今年世界经济因新冠疫情而大规模萎缩的背景下,“一带一路”倡议为所有国家提供了一个重要的平台,使各国在促进贸易和生产结构调整方面开展合作与协作。


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