冠察天下 | 政府工作报告向全球释放了哪些政策信号
In China's annual political meetings known as the "Two Sessions," China sets social, economic and security policy priorities in a government work report.
在中国的年度政治会议“两会”中，政府会制定社会、经济和安全政策重点并写入工作报告。
What's in it this year? And where is the world's second largest economy headed? We will be talking to experts but first, some highlights of this annual report.
今年的政府工作报告包含哪些内容？中国作为世界第二大经济体接下来的发展方向是什么？我们会和专家们共同探讨这些问题。但首先，先来看一下今年政府工作报告的要点。
For the first time ever, China has set no GDP growth target. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang cited the global pandemic and trade and economic uncertainties as the reasons why China didn't set a target.
今年的两会首次未设定GDP增长目标。中国总理李克强表示，考虑到全球疫情以及贸易和经济的不确定性，中国政府没有设定这一目标。
In fact, China has stopped setting rigid numerical targets for quite some time. From 2016 through 2019, it made its GDP growth objectives a range instead of a fixed figure.
实际上，中国已经有相当长的一段时间未设立确切的经济增长目标。2016到2019年这四年中，该目标都是一个范围，而不是具体数字。
But this year, COVID-19 complicated things. China took drastic measures in locking down cities and shutting down its economy to contain the spread of the virus.
但今年，新冠肺炎疫情使情况更加复杂。中国采取了严格的封城举措并暂停经济活动以遏制病毒蔓延。
Here is what the Chinese premier said on the trade-off between growing the economy and saving lives. "Our success has come at a great price. The economy posted negative growth in the first quarter of this year, and daily life and work have been greatly affected. However, life is invaluable. This is a price we must pay, and a price worth paying."
谈到权衡经济增长和挽救生命之间的关系时，总理这样说：“我们也付出巨大代价。一季度经济出现负增长，生产生活秩序受到冲击。但生命至上，这是必须承受也是值得付出的代价。”
But there is a target for jobs, which China says is its top priority right now.
但是，就业方面设立了目标。中国政府表示这是目前的重中之重。
Nine million – that is the number of new urban jobs to be created for 2020. To make it happen, China says it will rely heavily on a "more proactive fiscal policy."
这个目标是900万。也就是说，2020年，城镇新增就业岗位要达到这个数字。中国政府指出，这一目标的实现在很大程度上要依赖“更加积极的财政政策”
Government spending will go up by 1 trillion yuan, increasing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.6 percent, the highest in decades. On top of that, a special 1 trillion yuan treasury bond will be issued. The funding will go directly to counties and cities coping with the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Meanwhile, there will also be a 500 billion yuan cut in taxes and fees primarily targeting small and medium-sized enterprises.
政府支出将增加1万亿元，将财政赤字占GDP的比重提升至3.6%，达到几十年中的最高水平。此外，国家还将发行1万亿元特别国债，所得资金将全部用来支援各县市级政府应对疫情带来的经济冲击。同时，今年将新增减税降费约5000亿元，主要针对中小企业。
Where does all this money come from? China says it has ordered governments at all levels to slash non-essential spending, such as on new office buildings, by as much as 50 percent.
那么这些钱从哪里来呢？中国政府表示已下令各级政府将非必要支出，例如新建楼堂馆所，削减50%。
For foreign investors, China says there will be a much shorter "negative list," making more Chinese sectors open for foreign investment. Meanwhile a negative list will be drawn up for cross-border trade in services.
在海外投资方面，中国政府表示将大幅缩减外资准入负面清单，促进中国经济进一步对外开放。同时，中国将出台跨境服务贸易负面清单。
Another number grabbing headlines is China's defense budget. It is growing but at a slower rate since 2014. In fact, the 6.6-percent increase this year is the slowest in at least two decades.
另一个引发关注的方面是中国的国防预算。从2014年起，该预算虽逐步增加，但增度放缓。实际上，今年6.6%的增长目标已经达到近20年来的最低水平。
Compare China's defense budget of 178 billion U.S. dollars to America's 2019 defense budget of 680 billion U.S. dollars.
比较一下，中国的国防预算为1780亿美元，而美国2019年的国防预算为6800亿美元。
Now, how to understand the goals and priorities set by this year's annual report. Can they be achieved?
如何理解今年工作报告中设立的目标和重点？可以实现吗?
Yao Yang, director of China Center for Economic Research at Peking University shared his views.
北大国发院院长姚洋分享了他的观点。
Wang Guan: What are your thoughts on the fact that there has been no GDP target set for this year?
Yao Yang: That was kind of a surprise. Everyone expected there should be a GDP growth target. Usually the government work report did that, but this year there was not. I think there were several reasons. One reason was actually spoken out by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang himself. He said it was because there are many uncertainties this year.
这有点出乎意料。大家都觉得应该设定GDP增长目标。一般情况下，这会写在政府工作报告里，但是今年没有。我认为原因有几个。一个李克强总理已经解释过了。他说，这是因为今年存在很多的不确定因素。
I think the government also wanted to leave some room to implement other important policies.I think there are two such policies: One is to make sure that unemployed people, low-income people could be helped by the government. That needs money. So the government can set aside some money to help really poor people instead of boosting the economy. The second consideration probably is the government's plan to eradicate absolute poverty by the end of this year. That was the goal set by Chinese President Xi Jinping. This year China needs to fulfill that goal. That also needs resources. Without a growth target, the government can spend more money to fulfill those two goals.
我认为政府还希望能够留出一些空间来落实其他重要政策。我认为需要落实的政策主要有两个。第一个是确保失业和低收入人口得到政府的帮扶，这需要资金。所以政府可以拨出一部分资金去帮助经济困难的人，而不是提振经济。
第二个就是政府计划今年底之前彻底消除绝对贫困。这是习近平主席提出的目标。中国今年就要实现这一目标。这也需要资源。不设定经济增长目标的话，政府就可以调用更多资金来实现这两个目标。
Wang Guan: What messages should foreign companies pick up in terms of China's further opening-up from this government work report?
政府工作报告中关于中国进一步对外开放的内容向海外企业传达了怎样的信息？
Yao Yang: In this year's work report, there is an exciting message that I hope foreign companies can get. That is China is going to drastically shorten the negative list, including in the service sector. We all know the service sector is highly regulated, not just in China, but in other countries. The service sector is probably the last sector for China to open up. So if China really shortens the negative list in that sector, then foreign companies in the service sector can come into China.
今年的工作报告传达了一个令人振奋的信息，我希望外企能够了解到。那就是中国将大幅缩减外资准入负面清单，包括服务领域。我们都知道，服务领域的监管较为严格，中国和外国都是这样。服务业可能是中国最晚开放的领域。所以，如果中国真的缩短了这一领域的负面清单，那么外国服务业企业就可以进入中国。
And that's going to not only help foreign companies but also help the Chinese companies. And we know there is quite a large gap between Chinese service companies' productivity and the productivity of service companies in the United States, so that's going to be mutually helpful.
这不仅有助于外国企业，也有助于中国企业。我们知道中美服务企业的生产力之间存在比较大差距，因此，这对双方都是有利的。
Another issue in focus is a draft bill on Hong Kong. Wang Huiyao, president at Center for China and Globalization shared his views.
此次两会的另一个关注点是涉港决定草案，中国与全球化智库理事长王辉耀分享了他的观点：
Wang Guan: Talking about Hong Kong, a draft bill on Hong Kong regard-ing China's national security is being deliberated and potentially passed. Again, some western media said that this means the death of Hong Kong's rule of law institutions. Do you agree?
说到香港，人大正在讨论也很可能通过香港维护国家安全法草案。一些西方媒体说，这意味着香港法制的终结。您是否同意这种说法？
Wang Huiyao: It's unfortunate to see that a small group of people in Hong Kong seeks the independence of Hong Kong, which I think is really ridiculous because nobody ever said Hong Kong is not part of China. So this is really not making sense.
很遗憾，有一小撮香港人想要寻求香港“独立”，我认为这是非常可笑的。因为从来没有人说过香港不是中国的一部分，所以这种想法根本没有道理。
Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland are so intertwined and the Greater Bay Area is really a great future hope for Hong Kong. Hong Kong young people have opportunities in the Greater Bay Area: To settle there, to set up a business, to buy an apartment or to even build a family there. I see a great integration there.
但是，香港和内地联系非常紧密，大湾区是香港未来的希望所在，而且香港的年轻人的确有机会在大湾区立足、创业、购置房产、甚至组建家庭。这些能极大促进社会融合。
Somehow the chaos and the riot in Hong Kong cannot continue.
因此在某种程度上，香港的动荡混乱局面不能再继续了。
So the government has to do something, and also the legislative body has to pass some resolutions. Here's the red line. You cannot pass it. Here's the national unity, and here's the livelihood of Hong Kong that we have maintained. We have to put the 7 million of Hong Kong people's interest in mind.
因此，政府必须做些什么，人大也必须通过一些决议。必须明确红线，任何人都不能跨越。这涉及国家统一，涉及香港的经济和民生，必须加以维护。我们必须考虑7百万香港人的整体利益。
We cannot jeopardize Hong Kong. We cannot kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.
我们不能危害到香港，不能杀鸡取卵。
I think the new policy coming on Hong Kong is really for the interest of Hong Kong, for the benefit of Hong Kong, and for the prosperity, peace and stability of Hong Kong.
我认为针对香港的新政策的确符合香港的利益，有利于香港的繁荣、和平和稳定。
So I think if that is stabilized, we'll see tourists fly back to Hong Kong, we'll see spending continue in Hong Kong, we'll see Hong Kong become the most important bridge connecting the Chinese mainland and the outside world. I think all the people on the mainland and in Hong Kong want to see the continuous prosperity and the stability in Hong Kong.
所以，我认为如果香港的情况能够稳定下来，游客就会回来，就会在香港继续消费，我们就会看到香港仍是连接内地和外部世界的最重要的桥梁。我想，不管是内地人还是香港人，所有的人都希望看到香港能一直保持繁荣和稳定。