世界银行：疫情冲击 全球将陷二战以来最惨经济衰退

World Bank: The global economy is expected to shrink by 5.2 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. /The World Bank

世界银行8日发布的6月期《全球经济展望》报告指出，受新冠疫情冲击，预计2020年全球经济将下滑5.2%，造成的经济衰退几乎是2009年后金融危机衰退的三倍，其严重程度为二战以来所未见。

同时世界银行报告也表示，假设发达经济体在今年年中、新兴市场与发展中经济体在今年晚些时候能够战胜疫情，结束防控措施，预计上半年的不利影响会在下半年有所缓解，金融市场也能重回正轨，全球经济增速有望在2021年回升至4.2%。

The global economy is expected to shrink 5.2 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank said Monday.

The current crisis, it said, is the deepest global recession since World War II, and almost three times worse than the 2009 global recession.

2020年将是1870年以来人均产出出现下降的经济体数量最多的一年。新冠疫情使大多数国家陷入经济衰退，其中，疫情严重的、卫生医疗能力有限的以及已深度融入全球价值链的国家将遭受不小的打击。

此外，严重依赖外国资金、全球贸易、大宗商品出口和旅游业的国家的经济体系受疫情冲击最大。

"In all, the pandemic is expected to plunge a majority of countries into recession this year, with per capita output contracting in the largest fraction of countries since 1870," the Washington-based organization said in a report.

States with limited healthcare capacity or have been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic will face a disproportionately strong blow to their growth. Countries embedded in global value chains can also expect huge headwinds when trying to reboot their economies.

Economies heavily dependent on foreign financing and international trade could fall victim to global market disturbances.  As commodity exports and tourism slow down globally due to lockdown measures, countries dependent on these are not expected to recover fully until the pandemic blows over. 

The WORLD BANK

China, the first country to experience the outbreak, is projected to slow to 1 percent in 2020, which is by far the lowest growth it has registered in more than four decades. This scenario assumes that the pandemic remains under control and economic activities recover later in 2020.

由于主要经济体疲软带来的负面溢出效应，新兴市场和发展中经济体(EMDE)的国内生产总值(GDP)将在2020年萎缩2.5%，这个数值远低于1982年的发展中经济体低谷增长率0.9%，创下 1960年以来最低的增速。

报告指出，中国经济增长放缓以及全球大宗商品价格暴跌 (尤其像石油)将会打击严重依赖大宗商品出口的发展中经济体。预计今年近90%的发展中经济体的人均收入将会缩减，数百万人可能会重新陷入贫困状态。

By contrast, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE), will see their gross domestic product (GDP) shrink by 2.5 percent in 2020, due to the negative spillovers from weakness in major economies, alongside the disruptions associated with their own domestic outbreaks.

This is well below the previous trough in EMDE growth of 0.9 percent in 1982, and the lowest rate since at least 1960, the earliest year with available aggregate data.

The forecast assumes that the pandemic recedes "in such a way that domestic mitigation measures can be lifted by mid-year, adverse global spillovers ease during the second half of the year, and dislocations in financial markets are not long lasting."

The organization expects that the global economy will bounce back in 2021, growing by 4.2 percent.

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