负利率能否帮助经济对抗新冠冲击？

通常情况下，个人和企业可以从其银行存款中赚取利息收入。但请想象一下，如果银行反过来向储户收取存款的保管费呢？

这并不是天方夜谭。为避免2008年金融危机之后经济进一步衰退，欧洲多国和日本的央行早在几年前就开始实行负利率政策。2009年7月，瑞典央行率先实行这一政策，将其隔夜存款利率降至-0.25％。欧洲央行在2014年6月也采取行动，将其存款利率降至-0.1％。日本央行则是在2016年1月开始采用负利率。

新冠疫情为全球经济带来了自大萧条以来最大的挑战，所以这一非常规货币政策又回到人们的视野中。疫情爆发后，英格兰银行已将其主要利率下调至创纪录的低点0.1％。美联储在3月也采取了紧急措施，将基准利率降至零，并开始了新一轮的量化宽松。这引发了外界对主要经济体将实行负利率的猜想。

为什么实施负利率政策？

央行的主要功能之一是控制整个经济中银行贷款的成本。负利率政策背后的逻辑很好理解：负利率之下，央行将向商业银行收取准备金的保管费用，商业银行将向储户收取存款的保管费用；如果人们需要贷款，则商业银行会以更低的利息放款。

"Ultimately, it comes down to the central banks trying to encourage their local lending banks to put money back into the system, effectively by moving to a negative interest rate that's going to penalize banks that hold reserves. So, it's a motivating factor for them to lend it out," Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AxiCorp told CGTN. "The thought here is that by lending these surplus reserves back to the market again, the velocity of money will increase, and it will benefit the economy, creates inflation."

北京九圜青泉科技有限公司首席投资官陈嘉禾表示，负利率是央行给商业银行的，并且不会大幅度低于0，仅会降到-0.1％或-0.2％。政策传导过程中，个人和企业并不会直接获得负利率，即使是在负利率之下，由于违约风险仍然存在，商业银行仍会以高于零的利率放贷。

负利率政策对于个人和企业最显著的影响体现在更便宜的资金价格，他说：“借款人（个人或企业）需要支付的利率包括：首先是负利率，其次是违约率，第三是商业银行将获得的利润。最终，借款人将支付2％或3％，甚至4％的利率给银行。即便如此，这仍低于正常水平的利率。”

陈嘉禾解释道：“举例来说，你有一个潜在的投资机会，投资回报率为4%，贷款利率为5%，你肯定会拒绝投资因为没有投资收益。但是当贷款利率为2%，投资回报率仍为4%，你将很乐意进行这项投资。因此，负利率实际上只是使人们更愿意进行投资。”

By boosting lending, negative rates conceivably cause more business and commerce to happen, discourage saving, and encourage spending to increase aggregate demand and raise GDP growth.

负利率有效性的评价褒贬不一

"As we've seen historically, it hasn't really quite worked out that way, and there's no guarantee you could even work out that way now. Looking examples such as Norway, looking examples in Japan, where it hasn't really stimulated inflation, nor has it really increased the velocity of money. History suggests that it's not a viable policy to stimulate economies, probably will cause more damage," Innes said. 

陈嘉禾认为，不能说2008金融危机之后的负利率政策完全没有奏效。因为2008年遭受的金融损失太大，不可能仅靠低利率来挽救。2020年的疫情带来的冲击也是前所未有的，各国央行只是在尽力而为，虽然这并不意味着央行竭尽全力之后能够挽救经济。不过，他认为负利率政策实际上是阻碍经济放缓的一项有力措施。

瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监首席中国经济学家胡一帆认为，实行负利率政策说明央行没有太多选择，“他们的政策工具可能在某种程度上已经用尽了，他们还不得不更多地摆出降息的姿态。”

美国是否应该采用负利率？

U.S. President Donald Trump hailed negative rates, calling them a "gift" in a Twitter post. His push for rates below zero excited some people who believe it will be a boost for the staggering U.S. economy, which is facing skyrocketing unemployment and plunging spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"I feel strongly we should have negative rates. I disagree with him [Powell] one thing now, and that's negative rates. The committee's view on negative rates really has not changed. This is not something that we are looking at," Trump said earlier. 

Innes thinks with sufficient ammunition left in its policy chest, the U.S. can just continue to print money in this environment, supporting the dead loans, in other words, going deeper into QE (quantitative easing). 

陈嘉禾说，“我认为美国必须要采取他们能采取的一切措施。放在六个月前来看，这是没有必要的，因为那时经济非常强劲，但是没有人真正预料到美国会发展到今天这个地步。新冠疫情的持续扩散对美国经济影响巨大，失业率已经上升到历史水平，许多人都没有工作，甚至现在因为种族主义的问题，许多城市都处在骚乱中。”

胡一帆认为，短期内，美国不会采用负利率，美联储则会更加积极地在市场上购买资产。

In a recent interview with "60 Minutes" on CBS, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his view of following other central banks in forcing rates into negative territory. "Negative interest rates is probably not an appropriate or useful policy for us here in the United States," he said. 

中国没有必要实行负利率?

陈嘉禾表示，中国没有必要实行负利率。他说，目前经济已经开始恢复，我们应该为下一次经济危机留有政策余地。现在中国的PMI已升至50以上。人们对经济也充满信心。所以，中国人民银行没有必要像美联储一样采取措施。

胡一帆赞同这一观点，她补充道，中国人民银行在中国还有其他非常有效的工具，例如降低存款准备金率。目前中国的存款准备金率仍在10％左右，还是一个很高的水平，这也有助于支持经济。此外，前段时间，中国宣布定向降准，释放长期资金约4000亿元，重点用于中小企业再贷款专用额度。这些企业将吸收大量的资本流入，也有利于中国经济的迅速反弹。

"The bond markets are doing very well [in China], they do not have to panic by reducing interest rates dramatically. Global markets are very much mapping to China's policies right now, because it emerged from the lockdown a lot quicker than the rest of the world," said Innes. 

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