“必须”与“非必须”的疫情人生(内附音频)
武汉“关门”之后快两个月,当地一友人微信抱怨,好想在家弄杯自制咖啡。
朋友是两个娃的爹,同住一檐下的还有爸妈和媳妇。封城头几周,全家人操心的是菜肉蛋奶、口罩药物。咖啡?呵呵。居家战略物资供应稳定之后,他才意识到咖啡豆早就没了。
咖啡厅歇业,速溶告罄,他半玩笑半咨询我们这些身在祖国各地的咖啡同好,有没有可能寄点咖啡豆过去。但还没等讨论展开,他自己就承认有点矫情:快递不容易,速溶还省事。只要家里人平安,有些“生活非必须”,戒了就戒了。
那76天里,没谁比湖北过的难。但“生活非必须”被剥离,大江南北的措手不及是相似的。堂食、电影院、体育馆、卡拉OK,在热闹和小命儿逆相关的日子里,断舍离是福。
疫情消停下来,经济重开,“非必须“戒断带来的腹诽在火锅的热气中瓦屑冰消。但是,我们近三个月间节省下来“非必须”咖啡、火锅、旅行等等开支,不可避免地变成相关从业者工资单上的尴尬。在“非必须”集中的服务领域,相比去年同期,全国上半年负增长1.6%。其中住宿餐饮令人不忍直视(-26.8%)。我们hold住的 “非必须”生活,让一些人的生活出了问题。
解决问题需要时间。一家门店不在了,下一家想要取而代之需要资金周转、审批、装修、进货;信心重建并非一朝一夕,有志开店的人,需要掂量二波疫情和疫苗的竞速;努力再就业的人们,在找到下一份工作之前,只能继续盘算哪些是“生活必须”,哪些不是。
“能定价的问题,都不是大问题”,或许。但确实不是每一个问题都能准确定损。既然服务行业提供的是无形产品,牺牲“非必须”带来的影响很可能也是无形的。
比如到教室上课。中小学生放假离校时间越长,学习表现受到的影响越大。疫情期间学校关闭,学生在家学习的效果如何还有待检验。远程教学可以消弭一部分影响,但经济发展不均衡可能会让基础设施落后地区的孩子吃亏。
再比如“医疗迟误”。中国应对疫情反应迅速,避免了欧美地区发生的全国性医疗挤兑。但在二波疫情阴影没有完全褪去之前,仍需警惕可能的“医疗迟误”——因为疫情突起造成的看病难。
海外疫情仍然此起彼伏,韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰的遭遇让我们看到了什么叫““一夜回到解放前”:按下“非必须”暂停键仍然是主要策略,毕竟人命关天。因此,如何依据第三产业内不同行业的特点分类管理、分步复工就至关重要,科学的方法可以降低停工对行业和普通劳动者的冲击,让他们有足够的动能加入后疫情时代的重建。
作为全球范围内迄今唯一一个回复正增长的主要经济体,中国疫情期间的社会管理经验值得分享。在即将开幕的中国国际服务贸易交易会上,这个话题应当得到高曝光度。
世卫组织预测全球新冠大流行从开始到彻底结束需要两年时间。面对一场持久战,无论是速溶还是手冲,咖啡还是趁热快喝为上。
A few weeks after the first recorded COVID-19 outbreak threw the city of Wuhan into lockdown, a local friend of this columnist complained that he was desperate for a cup of real coffee.
Being an only son and a father of two, his coffee bean inventory wasn't important as a city-wide lockdown began. It was only after the essential needs of fresh vegetables and meat, face masks and medicine had been met did his caffeine withdrawal occur to him. By then the city's cafes had long been shut as non-essential services. Tired of instant coffee, he texted us asking half-jokingly if anyone outside Wuhan could bother mailing over some canned coffee beans. Before we seriously discussed the idea he quickly admitted that it was just a tantrum and not worth to inundating the city's already overwhelmed logistics services.
For the rest of us living elsewhere, with smaller COVID-19 outbreaks than Wuhan, the sudden division of everyday life between the essential and non-essential felt just as annoying. Deliveries were delayed, travel restricted, social gatherings prohibited. Stripped of all non-essentials, life became tedious, but could go on. The message was indisputable: A miserable life is better than a miserable death.
The pent-up annoyance of living without the non-essentials waned pretty fast after the epidemic was quelled and the economy reopened nationwide. But the bill into which the annoyance translated may be not very easy to foot at the same speed. Most non-essential needs we forewent fall into the service sector, the largest contributor to China's growth and employment, meaning many people's livelihoods depend on them.
Retail, travel, catering and housing were all in shock when China was wrestling with the outbreaks. The overall service sector in the world's second largest economy contracted by 1.6 percent in the first half of 2020. Recovering lost ground takes time for at least three reasons. It costs both time and money to establish new businesses where the old ones went bankrupt. Confidence collapses fast but comes back slow. This applies to both consumers and investors. The concern for a second wave of the pandemic particularly rains on the latter's willingness to expand in an absence of a watertight vaccine. Jobs easily wiped out may not be easily created. Where they are, unemployed people still need to fast belt before new income flows in.
China is clawing back from concession the fastest among the world's leading economies, attesting to the effectiveness of its COVID-19 policies. The success stories of online service suppliers such as e-shopping and gaming platforms also provide some comfort. But as the tertiary sector's definition suggests – it covers "intangible products" – a contraction in the sector points to intangible loss that's hard to define in money terms. Of which, upset caused by the denial of quality coffee is just a minor example.
For example, education. School students' performance tends to suffer after long absence from classroom. The findings conventionally associated with lengthy summer vacations could be revealing about what teachers will soon notice in the new semester. Online courses can supplement in big cities. But patchy infrastructure disadvantages students in developing areas.
China's focussed battle against COVID-19 pre-empted a national public health crisis, avoiding prolonged treatment delays for other severe health conditions in hospitals. Doctors can breathe a sigh of relief with vigorous control of local outbreaks. People going to hospital no longer fear that they are running into an infection cluster. Nonetheless, the authority still needs to stay alert to the squeeze on medical resources should a second wave of COVID strike.
It was a luxury to talk about the economic consequence of not having quality coffee or any other "non-essential" services when the coronavirus was lurking around. It would be a mistake not to review it now. After Wuhan, China's lightening speed anti-COVID-19 strategy has been proved successful in Jilin, Beijing and Xinjiang, all witnessing outbreaks and stamping out the emergency within weeks. That may afford China a little bit more flexibility with lockdown measures should COVID-19 make a return, preventing collateral damage from shutting down all the "non-essential" parts of the economy.
This topic will be high on the agenda of the China International Fair for Trade in Services. And CGTN will pursue it closely. Nearly every country is struggling with balancing the missions of containing the virus and reviving the economy. China's experience therefore is more valuable than the depth of Chinese consumer's pocket.
In the meantime, knowing that the measures most likely to be adopted in an event of a second wave (as evidenced in New Zealand and Australia following the most recent outbreaks) will remain a large share of the economy being shut own to save lives, your columnist will venture this advice: Be it quality or not, drink your coffee when it's still warm.