数说评论 | 为何说美国失业率下降是虚幻的希望？

In April, the unemployment rate in the United States increased sharply to 14.7 percent, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. About one in every seven Americans in the labor force was out of work.

今年4月，美国失业率急剧上升至14.7%。这是1930年经济大萧条以来，失业最严重的一个月。在美国的劳动力人口中，大约每7个人就有1个人处于失业状态。

However, in August the Trump administration celebrated as the country began to reopen its economy and the rate declined to 8.4 percent. 

然而到了8月，随着特朗普政府庆祝美国经济的重启，美国失业率下降到了8.4%。

Does the fall really indicate an improving unemployment situation? 

失业率下降，是否真的意味美国就业情况改善呢？

The numbers indicate a mixed picture. 

数据显示，实际情况要比我们想象的更为复杂。

The rise in employment was driven by a drop in temporary layoffs-people who only expect to be out of work for a short time –while there was actually an increase in long-term unemployment pain. 

就业的好转，主要是由短期失业人数减少而引起的。也就是说，这些人只会短暂地失业一阵子。然而事实上，越来越多的人正陷入长期失业的痛苦当中。

In addition, women and minorities may be facing greater uncertainty in the job market. 

此外，在就业市场中，女性和少数族裔将面临更大的不确定性。

Let's take a look at what the data says.

让我们来看一下数据。

First, latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that in August, the number of people in long-term unemployment has hit the highest in more than 6 years even as the overall number without a job significantly fell after this April. 

首先，美国劳工统计局的最新数据显示，八月的长期失业人数已达六年多以来的最高点，即便总体的失业人数在今年四月以后显著下降。

According to the official data, the number of temporary layoffs decreased from 18,063,000 in April to a still-sky-high 6,160,000 in August. But nearly 4,147,000 unemployed people were not on a temporary layoff, an increase of 1,584,000 since April. 

官方数据显示，暂时性失业人口总数从4月的18,063,000人下降到8月的6,160,000人，仍然很高，但是，到了8月有近4,147,000人面临永久性失业，比4月多了1,584,000人。

So although the overall picture seems to be improving, the real unemployment situation could be even worse because many more people may face permanent unemployment.

所以，尽管失业情况在整体上有所改善，但是实际情况可能会更糟。因为可能有越来越多的人将面临永久失业。另外一组数据也支持这一观点。

Another official data set supports this impression, that is, short-term unemployment declined while long-term unemployment increased. Data shows that from April 2020 to August 2020, the number of people unemployed for 14 weeks and less dropped considerably. 

即短期失业者减少，长期失业者增加。2020年4月至8月的数据显示失业时长小于14周的人，总数显著下降。

However, the number of people out of work for 15 weeks and over is 4.6 times the figure of April, rising sharply from 1.8 million to 8.1 million in four months.

然而，15周以上仍未找到工作的人数是4月的4.6倍，在四个月的时间中从180万迅速上升到大约810万。

Second, job losses are hitting women harder than men. 

第二，失业对女性的冲击要大于男性。

During the ongoing COVID-19 downturn, the unemployment rate for women of 20 years and over peaked at 15.5 percent in April 2020 compared with 13.0 percent for men in the same month.

在新冠肺炎疫情期间，20岁以上女性失业率在2020年4月高达15.5%，为近年来的顶峰。相比之下，同期的男性失业率为13%。

For female-headed households, the situation is even worse.  

对于女性为户主的家庭来说，情况更为糟糕。

Unemployment for women who head families is up significantly, from 5.4 percent in January 2020 to 15.9 percent in April, the highest rate in 10 years.

女性户主的失业率增长十分显著，从2020年1月的5.4%上升到4月的15.9%。达到近十年来的最高位。

Roughly one in every six women who want a job and are available for work cannot find employment. 

大约每6个具有工作能力且希望工作的女性中，就有1个人找不到工作。

Finally, coronavirus is disproportionately hurting the job prospects of minorities. 

最后，新冠疫情对不同族裔的就业影响也不相同。

The White unemployment rate is lower and has fallen fast. 

美国白人的失业率低于非洲裔、亚裔以及西班牙裔，且下降较快。

The unemployment rate for Black people in August was 13 percent while the rate for White people declined to 7.3 percent.

八月，非洲裔的失业率为13.%，与此同时，白人的失业率已经下降到了7.3%

The drop in the overall unemployment rate is a positive, but it may give false hope by masking deeper problems. The road to job market recovery could be long.

总体失业率的下降看起来是一个好消息，但是掩盖了深层次的问题，带来了虚幻的希望。就业市场的复苏之路，仍将漫长。

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