《数说美国》评论系列之一 | 哪些经济体是特朗普贸易政策的赢家？

As the end of Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president nears, which countries have been winners from his trade policies?

当特朗普作为美国总统的首任任期接近尾声，哪些国家成为他贸易政策的赢家？

U.S. customs import value from Asia obviously declined after the China-U.S. trade war started, whereas there were sustained rises from Europe and North America, so a winners list is often assumed.

中美贸易战开始后，美国从亚洲的进口额明显下降，然而来自欧洲和北美的进口额在稳步上升，所以一份各国赢家名单经常被提及。

But the pandemic reshaped the world in 2020. Data speaks, and in this case it offers a unique viewpoint.

但是新冠疫情的大流行，重塑了2020年的世界。数据有话说，而且这次提供了一个独特的视角。

Mexico has seen U.S. purchases ramping up in recent years. It exported goods to its neighbor valued at an additional 64 billion U.S. dollars from 2016 to 2019. However, amid the pandemic, orders of Mexican products fell by 36 billion dollars from January to July 2020.

近年来，墨西哥见证了美国订单的疯长。2016-2019年间，从墨西哥到美国的出口额增加了640亿美元。随着新冠肺炎疫情的暴发，在2020年1-7月间，墨西哥的美国订单锐减了360亿美元。

The same situation is confronting other major exporters, including Germany, Italy and India. 

其它的主要出口国也面临着同样的情况，包括德国、意大利和印度。

The reason may be beyond the coronavirus. The Chinese mainland’s exports to the U.S. decreased by 38 billion dollars in the first seven months of this year — in the last four years, the number was nearly 11 billion. 

新冠疫情可能并不是唯一的影响因素。因为就在2020年的前七个月内，中国大陆出口到美国的总额也减少了380亿美元，而在最近四年间，减少量大约是110亿美元。

So who are the main beneficiaries? Vietnam, Ireland and China’s Taiwan region are high on the list of winners. For them, orders from America have continued after the pandemic. Besides political considerations, to economies of limited scales, the benefits from such orders are almost irresistible, but can be costly with hidden risks.

所以，谁才是主要的受益者呢？越南、爱尔兰和中国台湾在赢家名单中位列前茅。它们的美国订单在新冠大流行后仍然得以持续。除了政治考量外，对这些规模有限的经济体来说，这些订单所带来的巨大利益几乎是不可抗拒的，但这些订单可能因隐藏的风险而代价昂贵。

Rising tensions are possible in east and southeast Asia, especially in the Computer and Electronic products sector. To China, the U.S. sharply cut 40 billion dollars in orders from 191 billion in 2019, while Vietnam and China’s Taiwan region completed the most exports to the U.S. in this industry, 21 billion and 24 billion  dollars respectively.

在东亚和东南亚，紧张的局势可能因此而加剧，尤其是在计算机和电子产品领域。2019年，美国从给中国的1910亿美元的订单中削减了400亿，然而越南和中国台湾却在这个领域完成了最大数额的对美出口，分别涉及210亿和240亿美元

What else are Americans seeking in Vietnam and Taiwan? Natural resources and related products.

那还有其它什么东西，是美国在越南和台湾寻求的吗？自然资源及其产品。

The U.S. import value in Petroleum & Coal Products from Taiwan grew by 147.2 percent from 2016 to 2019, along with an increase of 80.3 percent for Forestry Products. In the same period, that of Wood Products and Paper from Vietnam also rose by 231.6 percent and 168.2 percent respectively.

2016-2019年间，美国对台湾石油和煤炭产品的进口额暴增了147.2%，对林业产品的进口额也增加了80.3%。同一时期，美国对越南木制品和纸的进口额，也分别增加了231.6%和168.2%

Compared with an average month in 2015, Vietnam’s monthly Index of Industrial Production by the printing industry was up to 267.9 in October 2019.

如果以2015年的月平均值为100，在2019年10月，越南印刷业的工业生产月度指数一度暴涨到267.9。

Huge demand from the U.S. for natural resources is also evident with other trading partners. Ranking all sectors’ growth rates of the U.S. imports value from Mexico, Minerals & Ores, Wood Products and Oil & Gas were the top three.

美国对自然资源的巨大需求，也体现在与其它国家的贸易上。将美国对墨西哥不同行业的进口额进行排序，排名前三的是矿物矿石、木制品和石油天然气。

Is any economy making more sales in the U.S. market in a sustainable way? Yes, it’s Ireland.

那么，真的有经济体以可持续的方式，抢占了美国市场吗？是的，那就是爱尔兰。

Between 2016 and 2019, Ireland’s Chemicals industry absorbed an additional 12.3 billion dollars. Beverages & Tobacco Products made in Ireland are also popular with Americans. Of course, the consequences of Trump’s trade policies are more complicated than simply checking changes of U.S. imports values, especially when considering the political, cultural and military fields. 

在2016-2019年之间，爱尔兰的化学工业在美国多赚了123亿美元。爱尔兰制造的饮料和烟草制品也同样在美国大受欢迎。当然，特朗普贸易政策的实际影响远远比简单计算美国进口额的变化要复杂得多，尤其是考虑到政治、文化和军事方面。

And China is rerouting supply chains as well: its trade diversions can benefit another countries. In a dramatically changing world, no country can be sure of being the final winners or the victims, in the long run.

而且中国也在重新调整供应链，它的贸易转移会让其它国家受益。当世界剧烈变动，从长远来看，没有哪个国家能确定自己是最终赢家还是牺牲品。

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