美国东部时间3日0点（北京时间3日下午1点），位于美国新罕布什尔州（New Hampshire）迪克斯维尔山口村（Dixville Notch）的5位选民开始投票——
这标志着2020年美国大选选举日投票正式开始。
The 2020 U.S. Election Day started on Wednesday as voting enters the last stretch in a battle between incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Registered voters in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire were the first to cast their ballots on 2020 U.S. Election Day. /Reuters
然而，在一切都不那么确定的2020年，美国大选也充满了不确定性：综合以上诸多因素，或许要等上数天，甚至数周，才能知道谁胜谁负。小科普：在2016年的美国大选中，共和党候选人特朗普比民主党候选人希拉里·克林顿少获得将近300万张普选票（popular vote，即普通选民的投票），但最终特朗普当选美国总统。
Several factors have combined to make election night in the United States particularly uncertain in 2020: A massive increase in early and mail voting has changed how and when ballots will be counted; there is expected to be record turnout; the specter of 2016 and Trump's surprise win has hovered over a polling picture that in previous years would have told a clear story; and the expectation that neither candidate will easily concede has sowed seeds of doubt.For all of these reasons, it's hard to say when the results of the presidential or congressional races will be known. It'll vary from state to state, with each having different rules, and with lawyers from both parties poised to jump in once voting ends, the uncertainty could last for days.面对如此复杂的情况，CGTN英籍资深政治编辑John Goodrich梳理了选举之夜的四种可能。Here are four possible scenarios to watch out for in the hours after the polls close.
拜登赢下足够多计票速度较快的州， 提前锁定胜局
Biden flips quick-counting states特朗普在2016年赢下的佛罗里达州、北卡罗莱纳州、亚里桑那州、俄亥俄州以及佐治亚州这几个竞争激烈的州，预计在美国时间周二晚上或周三早上就可以完成计票。民调显示，两位候选人在这几个州的支持率都十分接近，而佛罗里达州更是关键中的关键。如果拜登赢下佛罗里达州，且在他的优势州无意外发生，那么他只需赢下另外四州中的一或两个（取决于各州的选举人票数），便能够提前确定当选。Joe Biden speaks during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, November 2, 2020. /GettyBiden has several potential, if narrow, routes to an on-the-night victory.A series of competitive states won by Trump in 2016 – Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and Georgia – are expected to report on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning and polls indicate the races in all are neck and neck.If Biden were to win Florida's 29 electoral votes, he would be on 255 – assuming his solid polling leads in other states pan out – and need just 15 to hit the magic number of 270 and win the Electoral College.Those 15 votes could come in North Carolina (15), Georgia (16) or Ohio (18), or a combination of Arizona (11) plus one smaller state such as Iowa (6).
特朗普赢下计票速度较快的州， 但当晚很难锁定胜局
Trump holds the quick-counting states
而对于特朗普来说，无论如何，他都将很难在选举之夜锁定胜局。即使他赢下上述第一种可能中提到的全部5个州，也依然无法拿到胜选所需的270张选举人票。倘若如此，总统选举结果大概率会在之后几天中西部各州计票结束后明朗起来。Donald Trump and Mike Pence greet supporters at a rally in Traverse City, Michigan, November 2, 2020. /GettyThe arithmetic for Trump is much trickier, and there is no clear route to an on-the-night victory.Florida, now his home state, is a must-win for the president and the polls suggest it could go either way. North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia were won by the Republican by at least 3.5 points in 2016, and they are all within the margin of error this year. He won Ohio by eight points in 2016, but it's a toss-up this year.Trump could retain them all but he still wouldn't hit the 270 votes needed for Electoral College victory. This would set up a grand finale over the following days in the Midwestern states that narrowly put him in the White House.
选情胶着，宾夕法尼亚一州定胜负
It all hangs on Pennsylvania2016年，三个关键摇摆州——宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州成为两党的主要“战场州”。2020年，这一局面或将再现。民调显示，拜登在密歇根州和威斯康星州获得了大多数选民的支持，与特朗普相比具有相当大的优势。也因此，宾夕法尼亚州可能会成为一锤定音的“头号战场”。The Trump-Biden contest could follow the same path as 2016, again putting three Midwestern states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – at the heart of the election.All three allow only limited pre-processing of mail ballots, meaning – if the results are close – it could take days for a winner to be declared, leaving the country in limbo.The polls strongly favor Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin, so Pennsylvania, the state both candidates have dedicated most of their time to, and its 20 electoral votes would likely be the decider.The added confusion in Pennsylvania is that Trump is likely to be ahead on-the-night there because votes cast on the day will be counted first, and early votes expected to favor the Democrats will be counted over the following days.
结果未出，但特朗普或将单方面宣布获胜
Trump declares victory
此前，外媒报道称，特朗普告诉亲信，如果在大选当晚他看起来遥遥领先，他将在当地时间周二晚上宣布胜利——即使仍有大量未统计选票，且最终结果尚不完全清楚。随后，特朗普本人否认了这个说法，指责这则消息是“虚假报道”。不过，他又紧接着说，“要是选举当晚我们还不能知道结果，那将是非常糟糕的。”“当天晚上的选举一结束，我就会带着律师去确认结果。”然而，这位总统的意图和行为一向难以预测。最终情形如何，仍待揭晓。Trump and his campaign have repeatedly said a winner should be announced on election night despite the fact that millions of votes are unlikely to have been counted and there is no realistic chance of him having won 270 votes by that time.Several states say they won't be able to give final tallies for days and even states expected to count quickly are unlikely to call races on election night if the vote counts are very tight. A declaration of victory by a candidate has no legal basis, but Trump is reportedly prepared to call a win if it looks like he's ahead on election night. "I think it's terrible that we can't know the results of an election the night of the election," the president said on Sunday. "We're going to go in the night of, as soon as that election's over, we're going in with our lawyers."
以上列出的四种情况仅仅是目前的一种分析
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