我是罗伯特•劳伦斯•库恩，以下是我正在关注的：西方指责中国意图借助“一带一路”项目在发展中国家进行基础设施建设搞新殖民主义“债务陷阱”，以便中国接管战略性资产，影响跨国政策，甚而统治世界。I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and here's what I'm watching: The charge against China, in the West, is that it is deliberately using its Belt and Road projects to construct infrastructure in developing countries as neocolonial "debt traps", so that China can take over strategic assets, influence transnational policies, and thus rule the world.2019年，总部位于纽约的荣鼎咨询，评估了中国的40个涉及外债重新谈判的“一带一路”项目。 In 2019, the Rhodium Group, a New York-based consultancy, reviewed 40 cases of China's external debt renegotiations for Belt and Road (BRI) projects. 重要发现包括：债务重新谈判及相关问题在借贷国之间很常见，且在未来几年还可能增加，这是由于中国的项目多于2013年至2016年间启动，融资贷款也在那几年，不过没收资产的情况极罕见。债务重新谈判通常会在出借方（中国）和借款方（东道国）之间达成更平衡的结果。其涵盖内容包括延长贷款期限和还款期限，明确再融资，部分甚至全部的债务减免。
Key findings include: Debt renegotiations and distress among borrowing countries are common, and may increase in a few years as many Chinese projects were launched from 2013 to 2016, along with the loans to finance them - but asset seizures were a rare occurrence. Debt renegotiations usually involve a more balanced outcome between lender (China) and borrower (host country), ranging from extensions of loan terms and repayment deadlines to explicit refinancing, or partial or even total debt forgiveness. 尽管经济实力强，但事实证明，中国在谈判中的影响力有限。许多案例的结果有利于借款人，这一结论削弱了各种批评。孤立的案例代表不了整体。 Despite its economic weight, China's leverage in negotiations was shown to be limited. Many of the cases involved an outcome in favor of the borrower, a conclusion that undercuts various criticisms. It's the fallacy of using isolated cases to represent the whole.尽管外媒的报道博人眼球，但加重东道国债务负担并非中国的战略。个别公司可能为了追求非法所得与“一带一路”东道国的当地官员私相授受，但这完全不符合中国的利益。中国政府正在强化标准并加强管控。这种进行阶段性调整的做法，中国很擅长。这是中国改革开放四十年取得惊人成绩的原因：先大胆地开展实验性项目， 验证什么有效，什么无效，然后再进行修正，并进一步推广。这就是为什么我认为近年来“一带一路”项目投资下降是一个积极信号的原因。长期的成功取决于项目能在最高标准的分析、检测和控制下进行规划、建设和运转。请允许我阐述一下自己的论证过程。Notwithstanding sensational stories in foreign media, burdening host countries with excessive debt is not China's strategy. It may be in the illicit interests of some companies working cozily with local officials in BRI host countries, but it is not at all in China's interests. Chinese authorities are now toughening standards and tightening controls. These are mid-course corrections - and China is especially good at making them. That's why China's four decades of reform and opening-up was astonishingly successful: start with bold, experimental projects, see what works and what doesn't, make changes, and roll them out further. And that's why I deem it a positive sign that Belt and Road investments have declined in recent years. Long term success depends on planning, structuring and operating projects with highest standards of analysis, monitoring and controls. Let me lay out the flow of my argument.首先，没有确凿证据表明中国有使发展中国家陷入债务陷阱的战略；实际上，证据支持的结论与此相反。 First, there is no empirical evidence that China has engaged in a debt strategy to entrap developing countries; in fact, the evidence supports the reverse. 第二，债权人把保护性条款纳入商业贷款的做法很正常，这是公认的最佳做法。Second, it is natural for creditors to build protective covenants into commercial loans; this is well-accepted best practices. 第三，虽然确实有个别项目背负了过多的债务，数额远超其可以承受的范围，不论是由于经验不足，还是摊子太大或是腐败，但这些案例绝不代表中国领导人的意图或政策指向。Third, while it is true that specific projects have borne excessive debt, higher than could be supported whether due to inexperience, over exuberance, or corruption, these cases in no way reflect China's leaders' open intent or policy directives. 第四，认识到沉重的债务会给贫穷的东道国带来问题，中国现在要求对项目进行更仔细的分析和更严格的审查，特别要考察债务方的负担能力。中国的国内发展成绩斐然，把这些经验运用到国际间的“一带一路”倡议中，发展中国家会从中受益，全世界也会受益。但挑战仍在，我将持续观察，我是罗伯特•劳伦斯•库恩。Fourth, recognizing the problem of heavy debt loads on poor host countries, China is now requiring more careful analysis and intense scrutiny of projects, especially their debt-carrying capabilities. What China has learned from its remarkable domestic development, it is applying internationally, to the Belt and Road Initiative. The developing world benefits; the entire world benefits. But there are challenges. I'm keeping watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.